| Literature DB >> 29330546 |
Maurike D de Groot-van der Mooren1, Saskia Tamminga2,3, Dick Oepkes4, Michel E Weijerman1,5, Martina C Cornel6,7.
Abstract
In the Netherlands, there is no registry system regarding the livebirth prevalence of trisomy 21 (T21). In 2007, a national screening programme was introduced for all pregnant women, which may have changed the livebirth prevalence of T21. The aim of this study is to analyse trends in factors that influence livebirth prevalence of T21 and to estimate the livebirth prevalence of T21 for the period of 2000-2013. National data sets were used on the following: (1) livebirths according to maternal age and (2) prenatal testing and termination of pregnancy (ToP) following diagnosis of T21. These data are combined in a model that uses maternal age-specific risk on T21 and correction factors for natural foetal loss to assess livebirth prevalence of T21. The proportion of mothers aged ≥ 36 years has increased from 12.2% in 2000 to 16.6% in 2009, to gradually decrease afterwards to 15.2% in 2013. The number of invasive tests performed adjusted for total livebirths decreased (5.9% in 2000 vs. 3.2% in 2013) with 0.18% a year (95% CI: -0.21 to -0.15; p < 0.001). Following invasive testing, a higher proportion of foetuses was diagnosed with T21 (1.6% in 2000 vs. 4.8% in 2013) with a significant increase of 0.22% a year (95% CI: 0.18-0.26; p < 0.001). The proportion of ToP subsequent to T21 diagnosis was on average 85.7%, with no clear time trend. This resulted in a stable T21 livebirth prevalence of 13.6 per 10,000 livebirths (regression coefficient -0.025 (95% CI: -0.126 to 0.77; p = 0.60).Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29330546 PMCID: PMC5839038 DOI: 10.1038/s41431-017-0075-1
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Eur J Hum Genet ISSN: 1018-4813 Impact factor: 4.246
Fig. 1Model for estimating livebirth prevalence of T21. Correction rates of natural foetal loss for women screened by amniocentesis was 25% (therefore survival to term 1−0.25 = 0.75) and foetal loss rates for women screened by CVS were approximately 32% (therefore survival to term 1−0.32 = 0.68)* each year by age of mother at the time of birth, from 15 years till 60 years old. AC_ToP termination of pregnancy following positive amniocentesis, CVS_ToP termination of pregnancy following positive chorionic villus sampling
Fig. 2Mean maternal age in the Netherlands, 2000–2013
Fig. 3Maternal age distribution in the Netherlands, 2000–2013
The trend in prenatal testing and reproductive choice after confirmed trisomy 21 (T21) diagnosis in the Netherlands, 2000–2013
| Year | Total livebirths | Number of invasive tests | Invasive tests versus total livebirths (%) | Proportion AC of all invasive tests (%) | Proportion CVS of all invasive tests (%) | Number of confirmed T21 diagnosis | T21 diagnosis following invasive test (%) | Number of ToPs after T21 diagnosis | Proportion of ToP after T21 diagnosis by AC (%) | Proportion of ToP after T21 diagnosis by CVS (%) | Proportion of ToP after T21 diagnosis (%) | ToP versus total livebirths (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 206619 | 12097 | 5.9 | 73.1 | 26.9 | 189 | 1.6 | 162 | 82.5 | 91.3 | 85.7 | 0.08 |
| 2001 | 202603 | 11433 | 5.6 | 73.6 | 26.4 | 179 | 1.6 | 158 | 85.6 | 91.5 | 88.3 | 0.08 |
| 2002 | 202083 | 11600 | 5.7 | 72.2 | 27.8 | 209 | 1.8 | 184 | 84.9 | 92.8 | 88.0 | 0.09 |
| 2003 | 200297 | 10940 | 5.5 | 72.4 | 27.6 | 231 | 2.1 | 217 | 93.6 | 94.3 | 93.9 | 0.11 |
| 2004 | 194007 | 9910 | 5.1 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 253 | 2.6 | 226 | 83.7 | 96.4 | 89.3 | 0.12 |
| 2005 | 187910 | 9538 | 5.1 | 67.4 | 32.6 | 232 | 2.4 | 184 | 69.6 | 88.9 | 79.3 | 0.10 |
| 2006 | 185057 | 8793 | 4.8 | 66.1 | 33.9 | 249 | 2.8 | 206 | 76.7 | 89.2 | 82.7 | 0.11 |
| 2007 | 181336 | 8528 | 4.7 | 67.5 | 32.5 | 262 | 3.1 | 217 | 76.7 | 88.0 | 82.8 | 0.12 |
| 2008 | 184634 | 8660 | 4.7 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 293 | 3.4 | 252 | 78.7 | 92.8 | 86.0 | 0.14 |
| 2009 | 185158 | 8056 | 4.4 | 67.1 | 32.9 | 270 | 3.4 | 241 | 85.5 | 93.2 | 89.3 | 0.13 |
| 2010 | 184325 | 7451 | 4.0 | 66.4 | 33.6 | 307 | 4.1 | 266 | 80.6 | 92.8 | 86.6 | 0.14 |
| 2011 | 180020 | 7504 | 4.2 | 64.5 | 35.5 | 255 | 3.4 | 213a | 81.1 | 85.7 | 83.5 | 0.12 |
| 2012 | 175972 | 7067 | 4.0 | 63.7 | 36.3 | 258 | 3.7 | 205 | 73.6 | 83.6 | 79.5 | 0.12 |
| 2013 | 171426 | 5500 | 3.2 | 58.0 | 42.0 | 265 | 4.8 | 221a | 77.5 | 88.3 | 83.4 | 0.13 |
We have estimated this number by assuming that in Nijmegen the percentage ToPs in the prenatal diagnosis was similar to that in the other centres
AC amniocentesis, CVS chorionic villus sampling, ToP termination of pregnancy
a In 2011 and 2013, the WPDT annual reports contained no information on the number of ToPs of the centre in Nijmegen
Fig. 4Predicted livebirth prevalence of T21 in the Netherlands, 2000–2013. Natural prevalence: without prenatal diagnosis and termination of pregnancy. Actual prevalence: with prenatal diagnosis and termination of pregnancy
Estimated livebirth prevalence of T21 in the Netherlands, 2000–2013
| Year | Total livebirths | Expected number of T21 livebirths | Natural livebirth prevalence of T21 per 10 000 | AC_ToP | CVS_ToP | Actual number of T21 livebirths | Impact of prenatal screening (%) | Livebirth prevalence of T21 per 10 000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 206 619 | 401 | 19.4 | 99 | 63 | 284 | 29.2 | 13.7 |
| 2001 | 202 603 | 405 | 20.0 | 83 | 75 | 292 | 28.0 | 14.4 |
| 2002 | 202 083 | 410 | 20.3 | 107 | 77 | 277 | 32.3 | 13.7 |
| 2003 | 200 297 | 416 | 20.8 | 117 | 100 | 260 | 37.4 | 13.0 |
| 2004 | 194 007 | 413 | 21.3 | 118 | 108 | 251 | 39.2 | 12.9 |
| 2005 | 187 910 | 407 | 21.7 | 80 | 104 | 276 | 32.1 | 14.7 |
| 2006 | 185 057 | 407 | 22.0 | 99 | 107 | 260 | 36.1 | 14.0 |
| 2007 | 181 336 | 405 | 22.3 | 92 | 125 | 251 | 38.0 | 13.8 |
| 2008 | 184 634 | 414 | 22.4 | 111 | 141 | 235 | 43.3 | 12.7 |
| 2009 | 185 158 | 418 | 22.6 | 118 | 123 | 246 | 41.2 | 13.3 |
| 2010 | 184 325 | 418 | 22.7 | 125 | 141 | 228 | 45.4 | 12.4 |
| 2011 | 180 020 | 407 | 22.6 | 99 | 114 | 255 | 37.3 | 14.2 |
| 2012 | 175 972 | 395 | 22.4 | 78 | 127 | 250 | 36.7 | 14.2 |
| 2013 | 171 426 | 384 | 22.4 | 93 | 128 | 227 | 40.8 | 13.3 |
Actual number of T21 livebirths = expected number of T21 livebirths − ((AC_ToP × 0.75) + (CVS_ToP × 0.68))
Impact of screening (%) = (expected number of T21 livebirths − actual number of T21 livebirths) / expected number of T21 livebirths
The correction factor for natural foetal loss for women screened by AC was 25% and CVS was 32%
T21 trisomy 21, AC_ToP termination of pregnancy subsequent positive amniocentesis, CVS_ToP termination of pregnancy subsequent positive chorionic villus sampling