Prediction of outcome of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy in the management of ureteric calculi.

The present study was designed to evaluate the clinical outcome of using extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in the treatment of ureteric calculi and to establish a predictive model for the stone-free rate in patients receiving the treatment. A total of 831 patients with ureteric calculi were accepted in this study. Several parameters, including stone site, stone number, stone size, history of urolithiasis, renal colic, hydronephrosis, and double-J ureteric stent, were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. A prediction model was established based on the logistic regression analysis of the significant factors, and the goodness-of-fit of the model was evaluated by employing the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. At a 3-month follow-up after ESWL treatment, the overall stone-free rate was 96.8% (804/831) with no serious complications being found, while the treatment failed in 3.2% (27/831) of the patients. Five factors, including stone number, stone size, history of urolithiasis, renal colic, and double-J ureteric stent contributed significantly to the clinical outcome of the ESWL treatment. The prediction model had a sensitivity and overall accuracy of 99.8 and 96.9%, respectively. The results show that ESWL remains an effective method for treating ureteric calculi. The prediction model established in this study could be used as a method for estimating prognosis in patients following ESWL treatment.