| Literature DB >> 31905457 |
Rushikesh S Joshi1, Alexander F Haddad1, Darryl Lau1, Christopher P Ames1.
Abstract
Adult spinal deformity (ASD) is a complex disease that significantly affects the lives of many patients. Surgical correction has proven to be effective in achieving improvement of spinopelvic parameters as well as improving quality of life (QoL) for these patients. However, given the relatively high complication risk associated with ASD correction, it is of paramount importance to develop robust prognostic tools for predicting risk profile and outcomes. Historically, statistical models such as linear and logistic regression models were used to identify preoperative factors associated with postoperative outcomes. While these tools were useful for looking at simple associations, they represent generalizations across large populations, with little applicability to individual patients. More recently, predictive analytics utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) through machine learning for comprehensive processing of large amounts of data have become available for surgeons to implement. The use of these computational techniques has given surgeons the ability to leverage far more accurate and individualized predictive tools to better inform individual patients regarding predicted outcomes after ASD correction surgery. Applications range from predicting QoL measures to predicting the risk of major complications, hospital readmission, and reoperation rates. In addition, AI has been used to create a novel classification system for ASD patients, which will help surgeons identify distinct patient subpopulations with unique risk-benefit profiles. Overall, these tools will help surgeons tailor their clinical practice to address patients' individual needs and create an opportunity for personalized medicine within spine surgery.Entities:
Keywords: Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Spinal deformity; Technology
Year: 2019 PMID: 31905457 PMCID: PMC6944987 DOI: 10.14245/ns.1938414.207
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Neurospine ISSN: 2586-6591
Fig. 1.Visual representation of artificial intelligence and its corresponding subsets. Data science can be seen as traversing all domains, as these are all commonly employed techniques in data science and analytics.
Fig. 2.Schematic depicting decision tree classifiers, and how they iteratively form tree structures to make predictions for a desired output. In this diagram, attributes represent clinical variables, and the attribute values depicted as arrows correspond to different observations for the given attribute/clinical variable. The final outcome/target is the desired variable or prediction (i.e., complication yes/no).
Fig. 3.Flow chart demonstrating the general process of training, validating, and testing utilized during the development of machine learning models. This diagram shows how training data is generated from the original data, and then split (generally 80/20) into a training set and validation set, most often using a technique called cross-validation. The training data is randomly split 80/20 k-number of times, such that the model learns from the training set, and then parameter tuning is done with the validation set k-number of times; ultimately the learned models are averaged to select the optimal one. The resulting model is then tested on a distinct test set for final performance evaluation, usually given by % accuracy and area under the curve values. The model can then be deployed to make predictions on new data.
Summary of studies presented in the manuscript including relevant information
| Study | Study and outcome | Computational technique | AUC | Accuracy | Other performance measure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durand et al. [ | Predicting intra and postoperative blood transfusion | Single decision tree; random forest | 0.79; 0.85 | - | - |
| Safaee et al. [ | Predicting hospital length of stay | Generalized linear model with bootstrapping | - | 75.4% with in 2 days | - |
| Scheer et al. [ | Predicting early complications (intraoperative and within 6-week postoperative period) | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.89 | 87.60% | - |
| Scheer et al. [ | Predicting PJF or PJK within 2 years of ASD surgery | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.89 | 86% | - |
| Yagi et al. [ | Predicting PJF within 2 years of ASD surgery | Ensemble of 10 bootstrapped decision trees | 1 | 100% | - |
| Scheer et al. [ | Predicting pseudoarthrosis at 2-year follow-up | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.94 | 91% | - |
| Yagi et al. [ | Predicting major complications in 2-year postoperative period | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.96 | 92% | - |
| Passias et al. [ | Predicting cervical malalignment following thoracolumbar ASD surgery | Stepwise multivariable logistic regression with bootstrapping | 0.89 | - | - |
| Oh et al. [ | Predicting MCID in 2-year ODI score (preoperative ODI > 15) | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.96 | 85.50% | - |
| Scheer et al. [ | Predicting MCID in 2-year ODI score (preoperative ODI > 30) | Ensemble of 5 bootstrapped decision trees | 0.94 | 86% | - |
| Ames et al. [ | Predicting MCID in ODI, SRS22, and SF-36 scores at 1and 2-year follow-up | Optimal algorithm selected from: ordinary least squares, ordinary least squares with partitions, elastic net, gradient boosting machines, extreme gradient boosting tree, extreme gradient boosting linear models, random forest, and generalized linear models | - | - | Mean average error: 8%–15% |
| Pellisé et al. [ | Predicting major complications, hospital readmission, and unplanned reoperation within 2-year postoperative period | Random forest | 0.67–0.92 | - | C statistic: 63.9%–71.7% |
| Ames et al. [ | Predicting answers to each individual SRS-22 question at 1and 2-year follow-up | Optimal algorithm selected from: elastic net, gradient boosting machines, extreme gradient boosting tree, extreme gradient boosting linear models, random forest, and elastic net regularized generalized linear models | 0.57–0.87 | 35%–80% | - |
| Ames et al. [ | Predicting patients with catastrophic costs (> $100,000) at 90 days and 2-year postoperative period | Regression tree and random forest | - | - | R2: 56%–57% for 90-day prediction; 29%–35% for 2-year prediction |
| Ames et al. [ | Hierarchical clustering of ASD patients | Hierarchical clustering | - | - | Gap statistic K: 0.68 for 4 clusters; p < 0.001 between variables across clusters |
AUC, area under the curve; PJF, proximal junctional failure; PJK, proximal junctional kyphosis; ASD, Adult spinal deformity; MCID, minimum clinically important difference; ODI, Oswestry Disability Index; SRS-22, Scoliosis Research Society-22; SF-36, Short Form-36.