Mitsuru Yagi1,2,3, Naobumi Hosogane3,4, Nobuyuki Fujita1,3, Eijiro Okada1,3, Osahiko Tsuji1,3, Narihito Nagoshi1,3, Takashi Asazuma2, Takashi Tsuji3,5, Masaya Nakamura1,3, Morio Matsumoto1,3, Kota Watanabe6,7. 1. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjyuku, Tokyo, Japan. 2. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, National Hospital Organization Murayama Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan. 3. Keio Spine Research Group, Tokyo, Japan. 4. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, National Defense Medical College, Tokorozawa, Japan. 5. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Fujita Health University, Toyoake, Japan. 6. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjyuku, Tokyo, Japan. kw197251@keio.jp. 7. Keio Spine Research Group, Tokyo, Japan. kw197251@keio.jp.
Abstract
PURPOSE: ASD surgery improves a patient's health-related quality of life, but it has a high complication rate. The aim of this study was to create a predictive model for complications after surgical treatment for adult spinal deformity (ASD), using spinal alignment, demographic data, and surgical invasiveness. METHODS: This study included 195 surgically treated ASD patients who were > 50 years old and had 2-year follow-up from multicenter database. Variables which included age, gender, BMI, BMD, frailty, fusion level, UIV and LIV, primary or revision surgery, pedicle subtraction osteotomy, spinal alignment, Schwab-SRS type, surgical time, and blood loss were recorded and analyzed at least 2 years after surgery. Decision-making trees for 2-year postoperative complications were constructed and validated by a 7:3 data split for training and testing. External validation was performed for 25 ASD patients who had surgery at a different hospital. RESULTS: Complications developed in 48% of the training samples. Almost half of the complications developed in late post-op period, and implant-related complications were the most common complication at 2 years after surgery. Univariate analyses showed that BMD, frailty, PSO, LIV, PI-LL, and EBL were risk factors for complications. Multivariate analysis showed that low BMD, PI-LL > 30°, and frailty were independent risk factors for complications. In the testing samples, our predictive model was 92% accurate with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.963 and 84% accurate in the external validation. CONCLUSION: A successful model was developed for predicting surgical complications. Our model could inform physicians about the risk of complications in ASD patients in the 2-year postoperative period. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.
PURPOSE:ASD surgery improves a patient's health-related quality of life, but it has a high complication rate. The aim of this study was to create a predictive model for complications after surgical treatment for adult spinal deformity (ASD), using spinal alignment, demographic data, and surgical invasiveness. METHODS: This study included 195 surgically treated ASDpatients who were > 50 years old and had 2-year follow-up from multicenter database. Variables which included age, gender, BMI, BMD, frailty, fusion level, UIV and LIV, primary or revision surgery, pedicle subtraction osteotomy, spinal alignment, Schwab-SRS type, surgical time, and blood loss were recorded and analyzed at least 2 years after surgery. Decision-making trees for 2-year postoperative complications were constructed and validated by a 7:3 data split for training and testing. External validation was performed for 25 ASDpatients who had surgery at a different hospital. RESULTS: Complications developed in 48% of the training samples. Almost half of the complications developed in late post-op period, and implant-related complications were the most common complication at 2 years after surgery. Univariate analyses showed that BMD, frailty, PSO, LIV, PI-LL, and EBL were risk factors for complications. Multivariate analysis showed that low BMD, PI-LL > 30°, and frailty were independent risk factors for complications. In the testing samples, our predictive model was 92% accurate with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.963 and 84% accurate in the external validation. CONCLUSION: A successful model was developed for predicting surgical complications. Our model could inform physicians about the risk of complications in ASDpatients in the 2-year postoperative period. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.
Entities:
Keywords:
Adult spinal deformity; Complication; Predictive model; Risk stratification; Surgery
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