Literature DB >> 31513120

Utilization of Predictive Modeling to Determine Episode of Care Costs and to Accurately Identify Catastrophic Cost Nonwarranty Outlier Patients in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: A Step Toward Bundled Payments and Risk Sharing.

Christopher P Ames1, Justin S Smith2, Jeffrey L Gum3, Michael Kelly4, Alba Vila-Casademunt5, Douglas C Burton6, Richard Hostin7, Samrat Yeramaneni7, Virginie Lafage8, Frank J Schwab8, Christopher I Shaffrey9, Shay Bess10, Ferran Pellisé11, Miquel Serra-Burriel12.   

Abstract

STUDY
DESIGN: Retrospective review of prospectively-collected, multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) database.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of patients who accrue catastrophic cost (CC) with ASD surgery utilizing direct, actual costs, and determine the feasibility of predicting these outliers. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Cost outliers or surgeries resulting in CC are a major concern for ASD surgery as some question the sustainability of these surgical treatments.
METHODS: Generalized linear regression models were used to explain the determinants of direct costs. Regression tree and random forest models were used to predict which patients would have CC (>$100,000).
RESULTS: A total of 210 ASD patients were included (mean age of 59.3 years, 83% women). The mean index episode of care direct cost was $70,766 (SD = $24,422). By 90 days and 2 years following surgery, mean direct costs increased to $74,073 and $77,765, respectively. Within 90 days of the index surgery, 11 (5.2%) patients underwent 13 revisions procedures, and by 2 years, 26 (12.4%) patients had undergone 36 revision procedures. The CC threshold at the index surgery and 90-day and 2-year follow-up time points was exceeded by 11.9%, 14.8%, and 19.1% of patients, respectively. Top predictors of cost included number of levels fused, surgeon, surgical approach, interbody fusion (IBF), and length of hospital stay (LOS). At 90 days and 2 years, a total of 80.6% and 64.0% of variance in direct cost, respectively, was explained in the generalized linear regression models. Predictors of CC were number of fused levels, surgical approach, surgeon, IBF, and LOS.
CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that direct cost in ASD surgery can be accurately predicted. Collectively, these findings may not only prove useful for bundled care initiatives, but also may provide insight into means to reduce and better predict cost of ASD surgery outside of bundled payment plans. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Entities:  

Mesh:

Year:  2020        PMID: 31513120     DOI: 10.1097/BRS.0000000000003242

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Spine (Phila Pa 1976)        ISSN: 0362-2436            Impact factor:   3.468


  8 in total

Review 1.  Data Science Trends Relevant to Nursing Practice: A Rapid Review of the 2020 Literature.

Authors:  Brian J Douthit; Rachel L Walden; Kenrick Cato; Cynthia P Coviak; Christopher Cruz; Fabio D'Agostino; Thompson Forbes; Grace Gao; Theresa A Kapetanovic; Mikyoung A Lee; Lisiane Pruinelli; Mary A Schultz; Ann Wieben; Alvin D Jeffery
Journal:  Appl Clin Inform       Date:  2022-02-09       Impact factor: 2.342

2.  Surgeons' risk perception in ASD surgery: The value of objective risk assessment on decision making and patient counselling.

Authors:  Ferran Pellisé; Alba Vila-Casademunt; Susana Núñez-Pereira; Sleiman Haddad; Justin S Smith; Michael P Kelly; Ahmet Alanay; Christopher Shaffrey; Javier Pizones; Çaglar Yilgor; Ibrahim Obeid; Douglas Burton; Frank Kleinstück; Tamas Fekete; Shay Bess; Munish Gupta; Markus Loibl; Eric O Klineberg; Francisco J Sánchez Pérez-Grueso; Miquel Serra-Burriel; Christopher P Ames
Journal:  Eur Spine J       Date:  2022-03-28       Impact factor: 2.721

3.  Does Implant Selection Affect the Inpatient Cost of Care for Geriatric Intertrochanteric Femur Fractures?

Authors:  Lauren Casnovsky; Breanna L Blaschke; Harsh R Parikh; Ilexa Flagstad; Kelsey Wise; Logan J McMilan; Tiffany Gorman; A Bandele Okelana; Patrick Horst; Brian P Cunningham
Journal:  Geriatr Orthop Surg Rehabil       Date:  2020-09-16

4.  Narrative Review of Predictive Analytics of Patient-Reported Outcomes in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery.

Authors:  Kurt Lehner; Jeff Ehresman; Zach Pennington; A Karim Ahmed; Daniel Lubelski; Daniel M Sciubba
Journal:  Global Spine J       Date:  2020-10-09

5.  Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery and Frailty: A Systematic Review.

Authors:  Carl Laverdière; Miltiadis Georgiopoulos; Christopher P Ames; Jason Corban; Pouyan Ahangar; Khaled Awadhi; Michael H Weber
Journal:  Global Spine J       Date:  2021-03-26

6.  Factors Associated With Short Length of Stay After Long Fusions for Adult Spinal Deformity: Initial Steps Toward Developing an Enhanced Recovery Pathway.

Authors:  Francis Lovecchio; Michael Steinhaus; Jonathan Charles Elysee; Alex Huang; Bryan Ang; Renaud Lafage; Jingyan Yang; Ellen Soffin; Chad Craig; Virginie Lafage; Frank Schwab; Han Jo Kim
Journal:  Global Spine J       Date:  2020-08-13

Review 7.  State-of-the-art reviews predictive modeling in adult spinal deformity: applications of advanced analytics.

Authors:  Rushikesh S Joshi; Darryl Lau; Justin K Scheer; Miquel Serra-Burriel; Alba Vila-Casademunt; Shay Bess; Justin S Smith; Ferran Pellise; Christopher P Ames
Journal:  Spine Deform       Date:  2021-05-18

8.  Artificial Intelligence for Adult Spinal Deformity.

Authors:  Rushikesh S Joshi; Alexander F Haddad; Darryl Lau; Christopher P Ames
Journal:  Neurospine       Date:  2019-12-31
  8 in total

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