| Literature DB >> 27752278 |
Benjamin L Cook1, Ana M Progovac1, Pei Chen2, Brian Mullin1, Sherry Hou1, Enrique Baca-Garcia3.
Abstract
Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning were used to predict suicidal ideation and heightened psychiatric symptoms among adults recently discharged from psychiatric inpatient or emergency room settings in Madrid, Spain. Participants responded to structured mental and physical health instruments at multiple follow-up points. Outcome variables of interest were suicidal ideation and psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12). Predictor variables included structured items (e.g., relating to sleep and well-being) and responses to one unstructured question, "how do you feel today?" We compared NLP-based models using the unstructured question with logistic regression prediction models using structured data. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of suicidal ideation were 0.61, 0.56, and 0.57, respectively, compared to 0.73, 0.76, and 0.62 of structured data-based models. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of heightened psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12 ≥ 4) were 0.56, 0.59, and 0.60, respectively, compared to 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85 in structured models. NLP-based models were able to generate relatively high predictive values based solely on responses to a simple general mood question. These models have promise for rapidly identifying persons at risk of suicide or psychological distress and could provide a low-cost screening alternative in settings where lengthy structured item surveys are not feasible.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 27752278 PMCID: PMC5056245 DOI: 10.1155/2016/8708434
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Comput Math Methods Med ISSN: 1748-670X Impact factor: 2.238
Baseline characteristics by suicidal ideation status and average GHQ-12 ≥ 4 (n = 1,453).
| Mean (SD) or % | Suicidality | GHQ-12 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Never suicidal | Ever suicidal |
| Avg GHQ < 4 | Avg GHQ ≥ 4 |
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| Age (cont) | 40.0 (13.8) | 41.6 (13.9) | <0.001 | 40.9 (0.5) | 40.2 (0.5) | 0.316 |
| Percent female | 59.3 | 69.3 | <0.001 | 59.7 | 69.7 | <0.001 |
| Average nightly sleep (hours) | 7.3 (1.6) | 6.9 (1.9) | <0.001 | 7.4 (1.4) | 6.8 (2.0) | <0.001 |
| Self-rated sleep quality (0–100) | 72.4 (24.1) | 55.0 (25.1) | <0.001 | 73.6 (21.2) | 52.8 (26.2) | <0.001 |
| Self-rated anger rarely (0–100) | 83.8 (16.3) | 67.0 (23.5) | <0.001 | 83.1 (15.6) | 66.6 (24.3) | <0.001 |
| Self-rated changes in appetite (0–100) | 55.0 (18.8) | 50.0 (23.0) | <0.001 | 56.2 (17.8) | 48.7 (23.5) | <0.001 |
| Medication adherence (0–100) | 76.5 (36.7) | 75.2 (35.1) | 0.005 | 77.1 (35.4) | 74.5 (36.0) | 0.012 |
| Average WHO-5 | 61.6 (21.1) | 38.3 (20.0) | <0.001 | 63.3 (18.9) | 35.0 (18.6) | <0.001 |
Significance was assessed using 2-sample t-tests for continuous normal variables, Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney) tests for continuous skewed variables, and Pearson chi-square test for binary variables.
Structured variable predictors of suicidal ideation and average GHQ-12 ≥ 4 (n = 1,453).
| Suicidal ideation ever (OR, 95% CI) |
| GHQ ≥ 4 (OR, 95% Cl) |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (cont) | 1.02 (1.01–1.03) | <0.001 | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) | 0.2 |
| Female | 1.12 (0.84–1.49) | 0.456 | 1.02 (0.74–1.40) | 0.913 |
| Average nightly sleep (hours) | 1.11 (1.01–1.22) | 0.037 | 0.98 (0.88–1.09) | 0.735 |
| Sleep quality (0–100) | 0.99 (0.99–1.00) | 0.094 | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) | 0.029 |
| Anger rarely (0–100) | 0.97 (0.96–0.98) | <0.001 | 0.98 (0.97–0.99) | <0.001 |
| Changes in appetite (0–100) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.482 | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) | 0.793 |
| Medication adherence (0–100) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.746 | 1.00 (0.96–1.00) | 0.912 |
| WHO_5 wellbeing scale | 0.96 (0.95–0.97) | <0.001 | 0.94 (0.93–0.95) | <0.001 |
Both models were completed using logistic regression (STATA 14 software).
Figure 2Word map of text-based predictors of suicidal ideation from NLP (English).
Figure 3Text-based predictors of suicidal ideation from NLP (Spanish).
Figure 4Word map of text-based predictors of GHQ-12 ≥ 4 from NLP (English).
Figure 5Word map of text-based predictors of GHQ-12 ≥ 4 from NLP (Spanish).
Figure 1Predictive analytics for structured and unstructured (NLP) models.
| Probability | Spanish | English |
|---|---|---|
| 0.35 to <0.4 | conté | I told |
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| 0.3 to <0.35 | monotona, Equasim (Ritalin), acosado, trabajamos | Monotony, Ritalin, harassed, we work |
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| 0.25 to <0.3 | raza, aseos, resfriado, pronuncio | Race, restrooms, congested (sick), I pronounce |
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| 0.2 to <0.25 | rechaza, jornada, será, suave, endoscopia, ello, ganas, solo, dedicados, recurrente, morirá, probado, causa, inevitable, raíz, digo | Rejects, work shift, will be, soft, endoscopy, it, desire, alone, dedicated, recurrent, will die, tried, cause, inevitable, root, I say |
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| 0.15 to <0.20 | lloré, primero, traumatólogo, hilos, alpina, reumatóloga, brazo, rigidez, estallar, cumplen, desapareciendo, agobia, vulnerable, síntomas, ganar, preferiría, culpas, explico, recordando, teoría, adelgazara, gasolina, emocionalmente | I cried, first, trauma surgeon, threads, alpine, rheumatologist, arm, stiffness, explode, they obey, disappearing, overwhelms, vulnerable, symptoms, win, prefer, blame, I explain, remembering, theory, will lose weight, gasoline, emotionally |
| Probability | Spanish | English |
|---|---|---|
| 0.35 to <0.45 | recorrer, horarios, comunicar | Wander, schedules, communicate |
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| 0.3 to <0.35 | iré, parecida, gimnasia, destacando, ido | Will go, similar, gym, highlight, going |
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| 0.25 to <0.3 | fumada, llevaré, desactivado, crema, gris | Smoked, will bring, disarmed, cream, grey |
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| 0.2 to <0.25 | hipnotizada, funcionar, manual, futuro, mala, deprimida, recogas, me voy, tardado, esclavo, síntomas, golpe, lado, merienda, primera, inspectora, valoren, suave, entendido | Hypnotized, to function, manual, future, bad, depressed, pick, I'm leaving, I took, slave, symptoms, hit, side, snack, first, inspector, worth, soft, understood |
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| 0.15 to <0.20 | Cerca, subdirectora, porta, Francia, cumplido, suicidios, bastan, videojuegos, laxante, con, voluntariado, particularmente, empleados, cabeza, contesto, confiaba, realizado | Near, subdirector, port, France, completed, suicides, suffice, video games, laxative, with, volunteered, particularly, employees, head, answer, trust, realized |
Distribution of suicidal ideation status by GHQ-12 cutoff ≥ 4.
| Suicidal ideation ever | Avg GHQ-12 < 4 | Avg GHQ-12 ≥ 4 | Total |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| No ( | 433 (70.9%) | 178 (29.1%) | 611 |
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| Yes ( | 229 (27.0%) | 618 (73.0%) | 847 | |
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| Total | 662 (45.4%) | 796 (54.6%) | 1,458 | |