MRCP is not a cost-effective strategy in the management of silent common bile duct stones.

BACKGROUND: Few formal cost-effectiveness analyses simultaneously evaluate radiographic, endoscopic, and surgical approaches to the management of choledocholithiasis. STUDY
DESIGN: Using the decision analytic software TreeAge, we modeled the initial clinical management of a patient presenting with symptomatic cholelithiasis without overt signs of choledocholithiasis. In this base case, we assumed a 10 % probability of concurrent asymptomatic choledocholithiasis. Our model evaluated four diagnostic/therapeutic strategies: universal magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), universal endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC), or laparoscopic cholecystectomy with universal intraoperative cholangiogram (LCIOC). All probabilities were estimated from a review of published literature. Procedure and intervention costs were equated with Medicare reimbursements. Costs of hospitalizations were derived from median hospitalization reimbursement for New York State using diagnosis-related groups (DRG). Sensitivity analyses were performed on all cost and probability variables.
RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategy in the diagnosis and management of symptomatic cholelithiasis with a 10 % risk of asymptomatic choledocholithiasis was LCIOC. This was followed by LC alone, MRCP, and ERCP. LC was preferred only when the probability that a retained CBD stone would eventually become symptomatic fell below 15 % or if the probability of technical success of an intraoperative cholangiogram (IOC) was less than 35 %. Universal MRCP and ERCP were both more costly and less effective than surgical strategies, even at a high probability of asymptomatic choledocholithiasis. Within the tested range for both procedural and hospitalization-related costs for any of the surgical or endoscopic interventions, LCIOC and LC were always more cost-effective than universal MRCP or ERCP, irrespective of the presence or absence of complications. Varying the cost, sensitivity, and specificity of MRCP had no effect on this outcome.
CONCLUSIONS: LC with routine IOC is the preferred strategy in a cost-effectiveness analysis of the management of symptomatic cholelithiasis with asymptomatic choledocholithiasis. MRCP was both more costly and less effective under all tested scenarios.