Literature DB >> 10373170

Predicting who develops chronic low back pain in primary care: a prospective study.

E Thomas1, A J Silman, P R Croft, A C Papageorgiou, M I Jayson, G J Macfarlane.   

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the relative contribution of premorbid and episode specific factors in determining the long term persistence of disabling symptoms of low back pain.
DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.
SETTING: Two general practices in the south Manchester area. PARTICIPANTS: 180 patients, who previously participated in a cross sectional population survey, who consulted because of low back pain during the study period. They were followed at 1 week and 3 and 12 months after consultation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Persistent disabling low back pain in the 12 months after the consultation.
RESULTS: Disabling low back pain persisted in one third of participants after consultation and was more common with increasing age, among those with a history of low back pain, and in women. Persistence of symptoms was associated with "premorbid" factors (high levels of psychological distress (odds ratio 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 7.2), poor self rated health (3.6; 1.9 to 6.8), low levels of physical activity (2.8; 1.4 to 5.6), smoking (2. 1; 1.0 to 4.3), dissatisfaction with employment (2.4; 1.3 to 4.5)) and factors related to the episode of low back pain (duration of symptoms, pain radiating to the leg (2.6; 1.3 to 5.1), widespread pain (6.4; 2.7 to 15), and restriction in spinal mobility). A multivariate model based on six factors identified groups whose likelihood of persistent symptoms ranged from 6% to 70%.
CONCLUSIONS: The presence of persistent low back pain is determined not only by clinical factors associated with pain but also by the premorbid state.

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Year:  1999        PMID: 10373170      PMCID: PMC28145          DOI: 10.1136/bmj.318.7199.1662

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  BMJ        ISSN: 0959-8138


  18 in total

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5.  Psychosocial factors in the workplace--do they predict new episodes of low back pain? Evidence from the South Manchester Back Pain Study.

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7.  Association between measures of spinal mobility and low back pain. An analysis of new attenders in primary care.

Authors:  E Thomas; A J Silman; A C Papageorgiou; G J Macfarlane; P R Croft
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10.  Psychosocial predictors of outcome in acute and subchronic low back trouble.

Authors:  A K Burton; K M Tillotson; C J Main; S Hollis
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10.  Early life course pathways of adult depression and chronic pain.

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