A parsimonious personalized dose-finding model via dimension reduction.

Learning an individualized dose rule in personalized medicine is a challenging statistical problem. Existing methods often suffer from the curse of dimensionality, especially when the decision function is estimated nonparametrically. To tackle this problem, we propose a dimension reduction framework that effectively reduces the estimation to a lower-dimensional subspace of the covariates. We exploit that the individualized dose rule can be defined in a subspace spanned by a few linear combinations of the covariates, leading to a more parsimonious model. Also, our framework does not require the inverse probability of the propensity score under observational studies due to a direct maximization of the value function. This distinguishes us from the outcome weighted learning framework, which also solves decision rules directly. Under the same framework, we further propose a pseudo-direct learning approach focuses more on estimating the dimensionality-reduced subspace of the treatment outcome. Parameters in both approaches can be estimated efficiently using an orthogonality constrained optimization algorithm on the Stiefel manifold. Under mild regularity assumptions, the asymptotic normality results of the proposed estimators can are established, respectively. We also derive the consistency and convergence rate for the value function under the estimated optimal dose rule. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches through extensive simulation studies and a warfarin pharmacogenetic dataset.