Automated Abdominal CT Imaging Biomarkers for Opportunistic Prediction of Future Major Osteoporotic Fractures in Asymptomatic Adults.

Background Body composition data from abdominal CT scans have the potential to opportunistically identify those at risk for future fracture. Purpose To apply automated bone, muscle, and fat tools to noncontrast CT to assess performance for predicting major osteoporotic fractures and to compare with the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) reference standard. Materials and Methods Fully automated bone attenuation (L1-level attenuation), muscle attenuation (L3-level attenuation), and fat (L1-level visceral-to-subcutaneous [V/S] ratio) measures were derived from noncontrast low-dose abdominal CT scans in a generally healthy asymptomatic adult outpatient cohort from 2004 to 2016. The FRAX score was calculated from data derived from an algorithmic electronic health record search. The cohort was assessed for subsequent future fragility fractures. Subset analysis was performed for patients evaluated with dual x-ray absorptiometry (n = 2106). Hazard ratios (HRs) and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed. Results A total of 9223 adults were evaluated (mean age, 57 years ± 8 [standard deviation]; 5152 women) at CT and were followed over a median time of 8.8 years (interquartile range, 5.1-11.6 years), with documented subsequent major osteoporotic fractures in 7.4% (n = 686), including hip fractures in 2.4% (n = 219). Comparing the highest-risk quartile with the other three quartiles, HRs for bone attenuation, muscle attenuation, V/S fat ratio, and FRAX were 2.1, 1.9, 0.98, and 2.5 for any fragility fracture and 2.0, 2.5, 1.1, and 2.5 for femoral fractures, respectively (P < .001 for all except V/S ratio, which was P ≥ .51). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for fragility fracture were 0.71, 0.65, 0.51, and 0.72 at 2 years and 0.63, 0.62, 0.52, and 0.65 at 10 years, respectively. For hip fractures, 2-year AUC for muscle attenuation alone was 0.75 compared with 0.73 for FRAX (P = .43). Multivariable 2-year AUC combining bone and muscle attenuation was 0.73 for any fragility fracture and 0.76 for hip fractures, respectively (P ≥ .73 compared with FRAX). For the subset with dual x-ray absorptiometry T-scores, 2-year AUC was 0.74 for bone attenuation and 0.65 for FRAX (P = .11). Conclusion Automated bone and muscle imaging biomarkers derived from CT scans provided comparable performance to Fracture Risk Assessment Tool score for presymptomatic prediction of future osteoporotic fractures. Muscle attenuation alone provided effective hip fracture prediction. © RSNA, 2020 See also the editorial by Smith in this issue.