Future Osteoporotic Fracture Risk Related to Lumbar Vertebral Trabecular Attenuation Measured at Routine Body CT.

We sought to determine if vertebral trabecular attenuation values measured on routine body computed tomography (CT) scans obtained for a variety of unrelated indications can predict future osteoporotic fractures at multiple skeletal sites. For this Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)-compliant and Institutional Review Board (IRB)-approved retrospective cohort study, trabecular attenuation of the first lumbar vertebra was measured in 1966 consecutive older adults who underwent chest and/or abdominal CT at a single institution over the course of 1 year. New pathologic fragility fractures that occurred after a patient's CT study date were identified through an electronic health record database query using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes for vertebral, hip, and extremity fractures. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression were performed to determine the effect of L1 trabecular attenuation on fracture-free survival. Age at CT, sex, and presence of a prior fragility fracture were included as confounders in multivariate survival analysis. Model discriminative capability was assessed through calculation of an optimism-corrected concordance index. A total of 507 patients (mean age 73.4 ± 6.3 years; 277 women, 230 men) were included in the final analysis. The median post-CT follow-up interval was 5.8 years (interquartile range 2.1-11.0 years). Univariate analysis showed that L1 attenuation values ≤90 Hounsfield units (HU) are significantly associated with decreased fracture-free survival (p < 0.001 by log-rank test). After adjusting for age, sex, prior fracture, glucocorticoid use, bisphosphonate use, chronic kidney disease, tobacco use, ethanol abuse, cancer history, and rheumatoid arthritis history, multivariate analysis demonstrated a persistent modest effect of L1 attenuation on fracture-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.63 per 10-unit increase; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.85). The model concordance index was 0.700. Ten-year probabilities for major osteoporosis-related fractures straddled the treatment threshold for most subcohorts over the observed L1 HU range. In conclusion, for patients undergoing body CT scanning for any indication, L1 vertebral trabecular attenuation is a simple measure that, when ≤90 HU, identifies patients with a significant decrease in fracture-free survival.