| Literature DB >> 30561851 |
Jan C Peeken1,2,3, Tatyana Goldberg4, Thomas Pyka5, Michael Bernhofer6, Benedikt Wiestler7, Kerstin A Kessel1,2,3, Pouya D Tafti4, Fridtjof Nüsslin1, Andreas E Braun4, Claus Zimmer7, Burkhard Rost5, Stephanie E Combs1,2,3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: For Glioblastoma (GBM), various prognostic nomograms have been proposed. This study aims to evaluate machine learning models to predict patients' overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) on the basis of clinical, pathological, semantic MRI-based, and FET-PET/CT-derived information. Finally, the value of adding treatment features was evaluated.Entities:
Keywords: FET-PET; MRI; VASARI; biomarker; glioblastoma; machine learning; prognostic model
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30561851 PMCID: PMC6346243 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.1908
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
Patient characteristics and outcome
| Training set (n = 132) | Validation set (n = 57) | |
|---|---|---|
| Age (y) | m 58 (min 20, max 85) | m 59 (min 24, max 82) |
| KPS (%) | m 80 (min 40, max 100) | m 80 (min 40, max 100) |
| Gender | Male: 82 Female: 50 | Male: 39 Female: 18 |
| Positive MGMT‐methylation status | 33 (25%) (na: 38 [29%]) | 13 (23%) (na: 16 [32%]) |
| Positive IDH1/2 mutation status | 3 (3%) (na: 55 [42%]) | 1 (5%) (na: 21 [37%]) |
| Ki‐67 proliferation index |
>20%: 32 (24%) |
>20%: 16 (28%) |
| OS (mo) | m 11.9 (min 0, max 75.5) | m 11.7 (min 0.3, max 87.4) |
| PFS (mo) | m 4.25 (min 0, max 60.8) | m 6.3 (min 0, max 74.0) |
| Preoperative MRI | 124 (94%) | 54 (95%) |
| Postoperative MRI | 99 (75%) | 46 (81%) |
KPS, Karnofsky performance status; m, median; max, maximum; min, minimum; na, not available; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression‐free survival.
Therapy characteristics
| Training set (n = 132) | Validation set (n = 57) | |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Surgery | 112 (85%) | 50 (88%) |
| Primary Radiation | 20 (15%) | 7 (12%) |
| RTCT |
Yes: 103 (78%) No: 8 (6%) |
Yes: 45 (79%) No: 3 (5%) |
| Adjuvant CT |
Yes: 88 (67%) No: 13 (10%) |
Yes: 41 (72%) No: 4 (7%) |
| Therapeutic Interval>6 weeks |
Yes: 32 (24%) No: 79 (60%) |
Yes: 37 (65%) No: 13 (23%) |
| PTV (mL) |
m: 333.9 (min 29.9, max 701) |
m: 340.8 (min 57.9, max 862.4) |
| TD (Gy) | m 60 (min 10, max 64) | m 60 (min 18, max 60) |
| SD (Gy) | m 2.0 (min 1.8, max 5.0) |
m 2.0 (min 1.7, max 3.0) |
CT, chemotherapy; m, median; max, maximum; min, minimum; na, not available; PTV, planning target volume; RT, radiotherapy; RTCT, radiochemotherapy; SD, single dose; TD, total dose.
Between surgery and RT.
Machine learning models with multimodal feature classes
| Model and feature class | Features |
|---|---|
| M1: "Clinical" | Age, KPS, Gender |
| M2: "Pathological" | MGMT‐promoter‐methylation, IDH‐mutational status, Ki 67%‐PI |
| M3: "MRI‐based" | VASARI features |
| M4: "FET PET/CT‐based" | TBRmax, TBRmean, MTV, TLU |
| M5: "Clinical/Pathological" | M1 + M2 |
| M6: "Clinical/Pathological/Imaging" | M1 + M2 + M3 + M4 |
| M7: "Clinical/Pathological/Imaging" + treatment features | M1 + M2 + M3 + M4 + RTCT, surgery, PTV, TD, SD, adjuvant CT, therapeutic Interval |
CT: chemotherapy; KPS: Karnofsky performance status; MTV: mean tumor volume; PI: proliferation index; PTV: planning target volume; RT: radiotherapy; RTCT: radiochemotherapy; SD: single dose; TBR: tumor to brain ratio; TD: total dose; TLU: total lesion uptake.
Between surgery and RT.
Performance estimates as concordance index (C‐index) and 95% confidence intervals of all seven models predicting OS and PFS
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OS | Training set | 0.74 (0.67‐0.81) | 0.64 (0.58‐0.71) | 0.93 (0.87‐1.00) | 0.93 (0.86‐1.00) | 0.75 (0.68‐0.82) | 0.94 (0.88‐1.00) | 0.96 (0.89‐1.00) |
| Test set | 0.59 (0.48‐0.70) | 0.49 (0.37‐0.60) | 0.61 (0.51‐0.72) | 0.54 (0.44‐0.65) | 0.64 (0.53‐0.75) | 0.70 (0.59‐0.81) | 0.73 (0.62‐0.84) | |
| PFS | Training set | 0.68 (0.62‐0.75) | 0.63 (0.56‐0.69) | 0.73 (0.66‐0.79) | 0.80 (0.73‐0.87) | 0.70 (0.63‐0.77) | 0.81 (0.74‐0.88) | 0.79 (0.72‐0.85) |
| Test set | 0.56 (0.45‐0.66) | 0.50 (0.40‐0.61) | 0.61 (0.50‐0.71) | 0.45 (0.35‐0.56) | 0.61 (0.51‐0.71) | 0.68 (0.57‐0.78) | 0.71 (0.60‐0.81) |
Figure 1Kaplan‐Meier curves for overall survival showing the performance model 6 (M6) and model 7 (M7) in the internal validation cohort. The developed classifiers for overall survival M6 and M7 were used to assign patients to a “high‐risk” and “low‐risk” group in the validation patient cohort. The log‐rank test was applied to test for significant separation of survival curves and calculation of P‐values. Model 6 did divide significantly patient subgroups on the validation test set (P = 0.00458). Model 7 significantly divided high‐risk form low‐risk patients (P = 0.0156)
Figure 2Kaplan‐Meier curves for progression‐free survival showing the performance of model 6 (M6) and model 7 (M7) in the internal validation cohort. The developed classifiers M6 and M7 for progression‐free survival were used to assign patients to a “high‐risk” and “low‐risk” group in the validation patient cohort. The log‐rank test was applied to test for significant separation of survival curves and calculation of P‐values. No significant separation of PFS curves could be observed for model 6 (P = 0.133). For model 7, there was a separation of survival curve without reaching statistical significance (P = 0.0949)