Literature DB >> 25414312

Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa.

Abhishek Pandey1, Katherine E Atkins2, Jan Medlock3, Natasha Wenzel1, Jeffrey P Townsend4, James E Childs5, Tolbert G Nyenswah6, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah1, Alison P Galvani7.   

Abstract

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.
Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

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Year:  2014        PMID： 25414312      PMCID： PMC4316831          DOI： 10.1126/science.1260612

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Science        ISSN： 0036-8075            Impact factor:   47.728


  18 in total

1.  Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics.

Authors:  J Legrand; R F Grais; P Y Boelle; A J Valleron; A Flahault
Journal:  Epidemiol Infect       Date:  2006-09-26       Impact factor: 2.451

2.  Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 west african ebola outbreak.

Authors:  Marcelo F C Gomes; Ana Pastore Y Piontti; Luca Rossi; Dennis Chao; Ira Longini; M Elizabeth Halloran; Alessandro Vespignani
Journal:  PLoS Curr       Date:  2014-09-02

3.  Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014.

Authors:  H Nishiura; G Chowell
Journal:  Euro Surveill       Date:  2014-09-11

4.  Ebola vaccination: if not now, when?

Authors:  Alison P Galvani; Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah; Natasha Wenzel; James E Childs
Journal:  Ann Intern Med       Date:  2014-11-18       Impact factor: 25.391

5.  Human asymptomatic Ebola infection and strong inflammatory response.

Authors:  E M Leroy; S Baize; V E Volchkov; S P Fisher-Hoch; M C Georges-Courbot; J Lansoud-Soukate; M Capron; P Debré; J B McCormick; A J Georges
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  2000-06-24       Impact factor: 79.321

6.  Epidemiology. Social factors in epidemiology.

Authors:  Chris T Bauch; Alison P Galvani
Journal:  Science       Date:  2013-10-04       Impact factor: 47.728

7.  Multiple Ebola virus transmission events and rapid decline of central African wildlife.

Authors:  Eric M Leroy; Pierre Rouquet; Pierre Formenty; Sandrine Souquière; Annelisa Kilbourne; Jean-Marc Froment; Magdalena Bermejo; Sheilag Smit; William Karesh; Robert Swanepoel; Sherif R Zaki; Pierre E Rollin
Journal:  Science       Date:  2004-01-16       Impact factor: 47.728

8.  A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic.

Authors:  L Forsberg White; M Pagano
Journal:  Stat Med       Date:  2008-07-20       Impact factor: 2.373

9.  Epidemiology: dimensions of superspreading.

Authors:  Alison P Galvani; Robert M May
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2005-11-17       Impact factor: 49.962

10.  Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.

Authors:  Bruce Aylward; Philippe Barboza; Luke Bawo; Eric Bertherat; Pepe Bilivogui; Isobel Blake; Rick Brennan; Sylvie Briand; Jethro Magwati Chakauya; Kennedy Chitala; Roland M Conteh; Anne Cori; Alice Croisier; Jean-Marie Dangou; Boubacar Diallo; Christl A Donnelly; Christopher Dye; Tim Eckmanns; Neil M Ferguson; Pierre Formenty; Caroline Fuhrer; Keiji Fukuda; Tini Garske; Alex Gasasira; Stephen Gbanyan; Peter Graaff; Emmanuel Heleze; Amara Jambai; Thibaut Jombart; Francis Kasolo; Albert Mbule Kadiobo; Sakoba Keita; Daniel Kertesz; Moussa Koné; Chris Lane; Jered Markoff; Moses Massaquoi; Harriet Mills; John Mike Mulba; Emmanuel Musa; Joel Myhre; Abdusalam Nasidi; Eric Nilles; Pierre Nouvellet; Deo Nshimirimana; Isabelle Nuttall; Tolbert Nyenswah; Olushayo Olu; Scott Pendergast; William Perea; Jonathan Polonsky; Steven Riley; Olivier Ronveaux; Keita Sakoba; Ravi Santhana Gopala Krishnan; Mikiko Senga; Faisal Shuaib; Maria D Van Kerkhove; Rui Vaz; Niluka Wijekoon Kannangarage; Zabulon Yoti
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  2014-09-22       Impact factor: 91.245
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  110 in total

1.  Clinical Sequencing Uncovers Origins and Evolution of Lassa Virus.

Authors:  Kristian G Andersen; B Jesse Shapiro; Christian B Matranga; Rachel Sealfon; Aaron E Lin; Lina M Moses; Onikepe A Folarin; Augustine Goba; Ikponmwonsa Odia; Philomena E Ehiane; Mambu Momoh; Eleina M England; Sarah Winnicki; Luis M Branco; Stephen K Gire; Eric Phelan; Ridhi Tariyal; Ryan Tewhey; Omowunmi Omoniwa; Mohammed Fullah; Richard Fonnie; Mbalu Fonnie; Lansana Kanneh; Simbirie Jalloh; Michael Gbakie; Sidiki Saffa; Kandeh Karbo; Adrianne D Gladden; James Qu; Matthew Stremlau; Mahan Nekoui; Hilary K Finucane; Shervin Tabrizi; Joseph J Vitti; Bruce Birren; Michael Fitzgerald; Caryn McCowan; Andrea Ireland; Aaron M Berlin; James Bochicchio; Barbara Tazon-Vega; Niall J Lennon; Elizabeth M Ryan; Zach Bjornson; Danny A Milner; Amanda K Lukens; Nisha Broodie; Megan Rowland; Megan Heinrich; Marjan Akdag; John S Schieffelin; Danielle Levy; Henry Akpan; Daniel G Bausch; Kathleen Rubins; Joseph B McCormick; Eric S Lander; Stephan Günther; Lisa Hensley; Sylvanus Okogbenin; Stephen F Schaffner; Peter O Okokhere; S Humarr Khan; Donald S Grant; George O Akpede; Danny A Asogun; Andreas Gnirke; Joshua Z Levin; Christian T Happi; Robert F Garry; Pardis C Sabeti
Journal:  Cell       Date:  2015-08-13       Impact factor: 41.582

2.  The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation.

Authors:  Marco Ajelli; Qian Zhang; Kaiyuan Sun; Stefano Merler; Laura Fumanelli; Gerardo Chowell; Lone Simonsen; Cecile Viboud; Alessandro Vespignani
Journal:  Epidemics       Date:  2017-09-20       Impact factor: 4.396

Review 3.  Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases.

Authors:  C Jessica E Metcalf; Justin Lessler
Journal:  Science       Date:  2017-07-14       Impact factor: 47.728

4.  Ebola therapy and health equity.

Authors:  Neil J Nusbaum
Journal:  J Community Health       Date:  2015-04

5.  Assessing the direct effects of the ebola outbreak on life expectancy in liberia, sierra leone and Guinea.

Authors:  Stephane Helleringer; Andrew Noymer
Journal:  PLoS Curr       Date:  2015-02-19

6.  Outbreak science: recent progress in the detection and response to outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Authors:  Catherine F Houlihan; James Ag Whitworth
Journal:  Clin Med (Lond)       Date:  2019-03       Impact factor: 2.659

7.  Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants.

Authors:  Robin N Thompson; Ellen Brooks-Pollock
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2019-06-24       Impact factor: 6.237

8.  Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication.

Authors:  Shuo Jiang; Kaiqin Wang; Chaoqun Li; Guangbin Hong; Xuan Zhang; Menglin Shan; Hongbin Li; Jin Wang
Journal:  J Transl Med       Date:  2017-06-01       Impact factor: 5.531

Review 9.  Anti-Ebola therapies based on monoclonal antibodies: current state and challenges ahead.

Authors:  Everardo González-González; Mario Moisés Alvarez; Alan Roberto Márquez-Ipiña; Grissel Trujillo-de Santiago; Luis Mario Rodríguez-Martínez; Nasim Annabi; Ali Khademhosseini
Journal:  Crit Rev Biotechnol       Date:  2015-11-26       Impact factor: 8.429

10.  Evolution and Spread of Ebola Virus in Liberia, 2014-2015.

Authors:  Jason T Ladner; Michael R Wiley; Suzanne Mate; Gytis Dudas; Karla Prieto; Sean Lovett; Elyse R Nagle; Brett Beitzel; Merle L Gilbert; Lawrence Fakoli; Joseph W Diclaro; Randal J Schoepp; Joseph Fair; Jens H Kuhn; Lisa E Hensley; Daniel J Park; Pardis C Sabeti; Andrew Rambaut; Mariano Sanchez-Lockhart; Fatorma K Bolay; Jeffrey R Kugelman; Gustavo Palacios
Journal:  Cell Host Microbe       Date:  2015-12-09       Impact factor: 21.023
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