Shuo Jiang1,2, Kaiqin Wang3, Chaoqun Li4, Guangbin Hong5, Xuan Zhang1, Menglin Shan1, Hongbin Li3, Jin Wang6. 1. Scientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, Shanghai, 201508, China. 2. Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China. 3. Department of Dermatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, 295 Xichang Road, Kunming, 650032, Yunnan, China. 4. Department of Infectious Diseases, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. 5. Department of Economics, Tufts University, 8 Upper Campus Road, Braker Hall, Medford, MA, 02155, USA. 6. Scientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, Jinshan District, Shanghai, 201508, China. wangjin@shaphc.org.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The 2014-2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human. METHODS: We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754. RESULTS: With incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible.
BACKGROUND: The 2014-2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human. METHODS: We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754. RESULTS: With incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible.
Authors: C Fähnrich; K Denecke; O O Adeoye; J Benzler; H Claus; G Kirchner; S Mall; R Richter; M P Schapranow; N Schwarz; D Tom-Aba; M Uflacker; G Poggensee; G Krause Journal: Euro Surveill Date: 2015-03-26
Authors: Dan Yamin; Shai Gertler; Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah; Laura A Skrip; Mosoka Fallah; Tolbert G Nyenswah; Frederick L Altice; Alison P Galvani Journal: Ann Intern Med Date: 2015-01-06 Impact factor: 25.391
Authors: Robert T Chen; Baevin Carbery; Lisa Mac; Kenneth I Berns; Louisa Chapman; Richard C Condit; Jean-Louis Excler; Marc Gurwith; Michael Hendry; Arifa S Khan; Najwa Khuri-Bulos; Bettina Klug; James S Robertson; Stephen J Seligman; Rebecca Sheets; Anna-Lise Williamson Journal: Vaccine Date: 2014-10-08 Impact factor: 3.641
Authors: Junerlyn Agua-Agum; Archchun Ariyarajah; Bruce Aylward; Isobel M Blake; Richard Brennan; Anne Cori; Christl A Donnelly; Ilaria Dorigatti; Christopher Dye; Tim Eckmanns; Neil M Ferguson; Pierre Formenty; Christophe Fraser; Erika Garcia; Tini Garske; Wes Hinsley; David Holmes; Stéphane Hugonnet; Swathi Iyengar; Thibaut Jombart; Ravi Krishnan; Sascha Meijers; Harriet L Mills; Yasmine Mohamed; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Emily Newton; Pierre Nouvellet; Louise Pelletier; Devin Perkins; Steven Riley; Maria Sagrado; Johannes Schnitzler; Dirk Schumacher; Anita Shah; Maria D Van Kerkhove; Olivia Varsaneux; Niluka Wijekoon Kannangarage Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2014-12-24 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Miles W Carroll; David A Matthews; Julian A Hiscox; Michael J Elmore; Georgios Pollakis; Andrew Rambaut; Roger Hewson; Isabel García-Dorival; Joseph Akoi Bore; Raymond Koundouno; Saïd Abdellati; Babak Afrough; John Aiyepada; Patience Akhilomen; Danny Asogun; Barry Atkinson; Marlis Badusche; Amadou Bah; Simon Bate; Jan Baumann; Dirk Becker; Beate Becker-Ziaja; Anne Bocquin; Benny Borremans; Andrew Bosworth; Jan Peter Boettcher; Angela Cannas; Fabrizio Carletti; Concetta Castilletti; Simon Clark; Francesca Colavita; Sandra Diederich; Adomeh Donatus; Sophie Duraffour; Deborah Ehichioya; Heinz Ellerbrok; Maria Dolores Fernandez-Garcia; Alexandra Fizet; Erna Fleischmann; Sophie Gryseels; Antje Hermelink; Julia Hinzmann; Ute Hopf-Guevara; Yemisi Ighodalo; Lisa Jameson; Anne Kelterbaum; Zoltan Kis; Stefan Kloth; Claudia Kohl; Miša Korva; Annette Kraus; Eeva Kuisma; Andreas Kurth; Britta Liedigk; Christopher H Logue; Anja Lüdtke; Piet Maes; James McCowen; Stéphane Mély; Marc Mertens; Silvia Meschi; Benjamin Meyer; Janine Michel; Peter Molkenthin; César Muñoz-Fontela; Doreen Muth; Edmund N C Newman; Didier Ngabo; Lisa Oestereich; Jennifer Okosun; Thomas Olokor; Racheal Omiunu; Emmanuel Omomoh; Elisa Pallasch; Bernadett Pályi; Jasmine Portmann; Thomas Pottage; Catherine Pratt; Simone Priesnitz; Serena Quartu; Julie Rappe; Johanna Repits; Martin Richter; Martin Rudolf; Andreas Sachse; Kristina Maria Schmidt; Gordian Schudt; Thomas Strecker; Ruth Thom; Stephen Thomas; Ekaete Tobin; Howard Tolley; Jochen Trautner; Tine Vermoesen; Inês Vitoriano; Matthias Wagner; Svenja Wolff; Constanze Yue; Maria Rosaria Capobianchi; Birte Kretschmer; Yper Hall; John G Kenny; Natasha Y Rickett; Gytis Dudas; Cordelia E M Coltart; Romy Kerber; Damien Steer; Callum Wright; Francis Senyah; Sakoba Keita; Patrick Drury; Boubacar Diallo; Hilde de Clerck; Michel Van Herp; Armand Sprecher; Alexis Traore; Mandiou Diakite; Mandy Kader Konde; Lamine Koivogui; N'Faly Magassouba; Tatjana Avšič-Županc; Andreas Nitsche; Marc Strasser; Giuseppe Ippolito; Stephan Becker; Kilian Stoecker; Martin Gabriel; Hervé Raoul; Antonino Di Caro; Roman Wölfel; Pierre Formenty; Stephan Günther Journal: Nature Date: 2015-06-17 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: Daniel J Park; Gytis Dudas; Shirlee Wohl; Augustine Goba; Shannon L M Whitmer; Kristian G Andersen; Rachel S Sealfon; Jason T Ladner; Jeffrey R Kugelman; Christian B Matranga; Sarah M Winnicki; James Qu; Stephen K Gire; Adrianne Gladden-Young; Simbirie Jalloh; Dolo Nosamiefan; Nathan L Yozwiak; Lina M Moses; Pan-Pan Jiang; Aaron E Lin; Stephen F Schaffner; Brian Bird; Jonathan Towner; Mambu Mamoh; Michael Gbakie; Lansana Kanneh; David Kargbo; James L B Massally; Fatima K Kamara; Edwin Konuwa; Josephine Sellu; Abdul A Jalloh; Ibrahim Mustapha; Momoh Foday; Mohamed Yillah; Bobbie R Erickson; Tara Sealy; Dianna Blau; Christopher Paddock; Aaron Brault; Brian Amman; Jane Basile; Scott Bearden; Jessica Belser; Eric Bergeron; Shelley Campbell; Ayan Chakrabarti; Kimberly Dodd; Mike Flint; Aridth Gibbons; Christin Goodman; John Klena; Laura McMullan; Laura Morgan; Brandy Russell; Johanna Salzer; Angela Sanchez; David Wang; Irwin Jungreis; Christopher Tomkins-Tinch; Andrey Kislyuk; Michael F Lin; Sinead Chapman; Bronwyn MacInnis; Ashley Matthews; James Bochicchio; Lisa E Hensley; Jens H Kuhn; Chad Nusbaum; John S Schieffelin; Bruce W Birren; Marc Forget; Stuart T Nichol; Gustavo F Palacios; Daouda Ndiaye; Christian Happi; Sahr M Gevao; Mohamed A Vandi; Brima Kargbo; Edward C Holmes; Trevor Bedford; Andreas Gnirke; Ute Ströher; Andrew Rambaut; Robert F Garry; Pardis C Sabeti Journal: Cell Date: 2015-06-18 Impact factor: 41.582
Authors: Masood Khaksar Toroghi; Nidal Al-Huniti; John D Davis; A Thomas DiCioccio; Ronda Rippley; Alina Baum; Christos A Kyratsous; Sumathi Sivapalasingam; Joel Kantrowitz; Mohamed A Kamal Journal: Clin Transl Sci Date: 2022-08-17 Impact factor: 4.438