| Literature DB >> 24870936 |
Devin K Patel1, Kelly D Green2, Marat Fudim1, Frank E Harrell3, Thomas J Wang2, Mark A Robbins2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In an era of expanded treatment options for severe aortic stenosis, it is important to understand risk factors for the condition. It has been suggested that severe aortic stenosis is less common in African Americans, but there are limited data from large studies. METHODS ANDEntities:
Keywords: aortic valve stenosis; database; epidemiology; race and ethnicity; risk factor
Mesh:
Year: 2014 PMID: 24870936 PMCID: PMC4309086 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.114.000879
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Criteria for Inclusion in Study Populations
| Study Population | ||
| Echocardiogram | Defined from keyword search in all clinical documents | All of the following criteria: |
| Severe aortic stenosis | Defined from keyword search in all clinical documents | All of the following criteria: |
| Severe mitral regurgitation | Defined from keyword search in all clinical documents | All of the following criteria: |
Search criteria for identification of patients in the study population is shown. A combination of keyword search, demographics qualifiers, and manual review was used.
Any clinical document includes clinical notes, procedure reports, radiology reports, problem lists, clinical communications, discharge summaries, patient letters, pathology reports or rehabilitation reports.
Method for Determination of Each Demographic or Risk Factor
| Method of Determination | Demographic or Risk Factors |
|---|---|
| Direct export | Gender |
| Race | |
| Mean of all documented values | BMI |
| LDL | |
| Creatinine | |
| Value at most recent clinic clinical encounter | Age |
| Synthetic Derivative search | Coronary artery disease |
| Hypertension | |
| Diabetes | |
| Statin use |
The method of determining the demographic group or presence of a risk factor is shown. A combination of direct data export, export of laboratory or clinical measurement, and Synthetic Derivative queries was used in collecting risk factor data. Details of synthetic derivative queries for coronary artery disease, hypertension, and diabetes are shown in Table 3. BMI indicates body mass index; LDL, low‐density lipoprotein.
Defined as outpatient clinic visit, inpatient consultation, or documentation of vital signs.
Synthetic Derivative Search Criteria for Risk Factor Determination
| Hypertension | ||
| Yes | Defined from combination of ICD9 coding and problem list search excluding common search confounders of the disease | Documentation of any of the following ICD9 codes: 401, 402, 403, 404, 405 |
| No | Defined from lack of ICD9 code and lack of mention of disease in any clinical document | All of the following criteria: |
| Unable to classify | Defined from lack of ICD9 coding but mention of disease in clinical document other than problem list | All of the following criteria: |
| Coronary artery disease requiring intervention | ||
| Yes | Defined from combination of CPT coding and problem list search | Documentation of any of the following CPT codes: 33510, 33511, 33512, 33513, 33514, 33516, 33517, 33518, 33519, 33521, 33522, 33523, 33530, 33533, 33534, 33535, 33536, 92975, 92980, 92981, 92982, 92984, 92995, 92996 |
| No | Defined from lack of ICD9 and mention of disease in any clinical document | All of the following criteria: |
| Unable to classify | Defined from lack of ICD9 coding but mention of disease in clinical document other than problem list | All of the following criteria: |
| Diabetes mellitus | ||
| Yes | Defined from combination of ICD9 coding and problem list search | Documentation of any ICD9 code that begins with 250 |
| No | Defined from lack of ICD9 and mention of disease in any clinical document | All of the following criteria: |
| Unable to classify | Defined from lack of ICD9 coding but mention of disease in clinical document other than problem list | All of the following criteria: |
| Statin use | ||
| Yes | Defined from presence of medication in medication search | Presence of any of the following in medication search: “atorvastatin”, “cerivastatin”, “fluvastatin”, “lovastatin”, “pravastatin”, “rosuvastatin”, “simvastatin”, “Altocor”, “Altoprev”, “Baycol”, “Caduet”, “Canef”, “Crestor”, “Lescol”, “Lipex”, “Lipitor”, “Lipobay”, “Lipostat”, “Mevacor”, “Pravachol”, “Simcor”, “Sortis”, “Torvacard”, “Torvast”, “Totalip”, “Tulip”, “Vytorin”, “Zocor” |
| No | Defined from lack of presence of medication in medication search | No presence of any of the following in medication search: “atorvastatin”, “cerivastatin”, “fluvastatin”, “lovastatin”, “pravastatin”, “rosuvastatin”, “simvastatin”, “Altocor”, “Altoprev”, “Baycol”, “Caduet”, “Canef”, “Crestor”, “Lescol”, “Lipex”, “Lipitor”, “Lipobay”, “Lipostat”, “Mevacor”, “Pravachol”, “Simcor”, “Sortis”, “Torvacard”, “Torvast”, “Totalip”, “Tulip”, “Vytorin”, “Zocor” |
Full Synthetic Derivative search criteria for hypertension, diabetes coronary artery disease and statin use are shown below. A combination of keyword search within problem lists and clinical charts, ICD9 codes, CPT codes and medication searches was used for each risk factor. All searches are case insensitive. ICD9: ninth revision of International Classification of Diseases.
Clinical documents includes clinical notes, procedure reports, radiology reports, problem lists, clinical communications, discharge summaries, patient letters, pathology reports or rehabilitation reports.
Data Exclusion Criteria for Inaccurately Reported Data
| Variable | Excluded Values |
|---|---|
| Birth year | Year 1900 |
| BMI | Values <14 and >70 |
| LDL | Values <1 and >1500 |
| Creatinine | Values <0 and >30 |
Clinical criteria shown here was used to exclude incorrectly documented measurements. Criteria were established based off clinical judgment and applied to all patients. BMI indicates body mass index; LDL, low density lipoprotein.
Exclude because patients whose birthdays are unknown are inaccurately classified as year 1900.
Classification of Comorbidities Based on Data Available
| Risk Factor | Criteria | Variables | % Classified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | Data available for more than 99.9% of patients | Presence of aortic stenosis | 100% |
| Statin use | 100% | ||
| Race | 100% | ||
| Sex | 99.99% | ||
| Age at last follow‐up | 99.98% | ||
| Seldom‐missed | Data available for between 67% and 99.9% of patients | Coronary artery disease | 86.6% |
| Creatinine | 76.7% | ||
| Hypertension | 74.2% | ||
| Diabetes | 67.9% | ||
| Incomplete | Data available for less than 67% of patients | BMI | 62.2% |
| LDL | 31.9% |
Comorbidities were classified based on percent of patients with data available for that comorbidity. Cutoff percentages for classification category were assigned based on statistical judgment. BMI indicates body mass index; LDL, low density lipoprotein.
Variation in Coefficients for Race and Imputed Risk Factor Between Different Draws of Imputation Model
| Draw | Race | Diabetes | Hypertension | CAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.899 | 0.566 | 0.281 | 1.200 |
| 2 | 0.898 | 0.557 | 0.279 | 1.195 |
| 3 | 0.903 | 0.558 | 0.286 | 1.203 |
| 4 | 0.895 | 0.554 | 0.301 | 1.193 |
| 5 | 0.899 | 0.564 | 0.296 | 1.207 |
Coefficients for the association between race and imputed risk factors are shown below for 5 consecutive draws. The coefficients do not vary significantly between draws indicating variations due to random draw do not significantly affect the output of the model. CAD indicates coronary artery disease.
Figure 1.Baseline characteristic of the echocardiogram population by race for continuous characteristics. Baseline characteristic for the echocardiogram population are shown, stratified by race, for continuous risk factors. African‐American subjects are younger and have higher BMI and creatinine than Caucasian subjects. BMI indicates body mass index.
Baseline Characteristic of Echocardiogram Population by Race for Categorical Characteristics
| Risk Factor | Classification | Caucasian | African American | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | % | Number | % | ||
| Sex | Male | 100 586 | 45.1 | 14 740 | 40.2 |
| Female | 122 377 | 54.9 | 21 935 | 59.8 | |
| DM | Yes | 34 157 | 15.3 | 6360 | 17.3 |
| No | 117 062 | 52.5 | 18 649 | 50.8 | |
| Imputed | 71 757 | 32.2 | 11 672 | 31.8 | |
| HTN | Yes | 94 090 | 42.2 | 17 110 | 46.6 |
| No | 71 156 | 31.9 | 10 263 | 28.0 | |
| Imputed | 57 730 | 25.9 | 9308 | 25.4 | |
| CAD | Yes | 17 774 | 8.0 | 1362 | 3.7 |
| No | 174 228 | 78.1 | 31 461 | 85.8 | |
| Imputed | 30 974 | 13.9 | 3858 | 10.5 | |
| Statin use | Yes | 62 719 | 28.1 | 7873 | 21.5 |
| No | 160 257 | 71.9 | 28 808 | 78.5 | |
Baseline characteristic for the echocardiogram population are shown, stratified by race, for categorical risk factors. Caucasian subjects were more likely to be male, have coronary artery disease and be prescribed statins while African Americans are more likely to have diabetes and hypertension. CAD indicates coronary artery disease; DM, diabetes mellitus; HTN, hypertension.
The Likelihood of Severe Aortic Stenosis, Severe Aortic Stenosis due to Calcific Degeneration of Tricuspid Aortic Valve, and Severe Aortic Stenosis due to Bicuspid Valve Disease Given Each Categorical Risk Factor
| Characteristic | Total | SAS | CDT | BVD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | Male | 115 326 | 1.00% | 0.55% | 0.31% |
| Female | 144 312 | 0.68% | 0.44% | 0.14% | |
| OR | 1.47 | 1.25 | 2.22 | ||
| Race | African American | 36 681 | 0.29% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| Caucasian | 222 976 | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.24% | |
| OR | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.17 | ||
| Diabetes mellitus | Yes | 40 581 | 1.98% | 1.41% | 0.35% |
| No | 136 812 | 0.97% | 0.51% | 0.30% | |
| OR | 2.06 | 2.79 | 1.17 | ||
| Hypertension | Yes | 111 354 | 1.60% | 1.04% | 0.36% |
| No | 81 862 | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.19% | |
| OR | 3.68 | 8.07 | 1.90 | ||
| Coronary artery disease | Yes | 19 392 | 4.99% | 3.32% | 0.98% |
| No | 206 343 | 0.57% | 0.30% | 0.18% | |
| OR | 9.16 | 11.41 | 5.49 | ||
| Statin use | Yes | 70 592 | 1.89% | 1.24% | 0.43% |
| No | 189 065 | 0.42% | 0.21% | 0.13% | |
| OR | 4.57 | 5.97 | 3.32 | ||
| Overall percent | 0.82% | 0.49% | 0.21% | ||
The overall and etiology‐specific probability of severe aortic stenosis based on presence of each risk factor or demographic is shown. Among patient with a given risk factor classification, the proportion of patients with severe aortic stenosis, severe aortic stenosis due to calcific degeneration of a native tricuspid valve, and severe aortic stenosis due to a bicuspid aortic valve are shown with the overall odds ratio for the difference. Group with higher probability of severe aortic stenosis included males, Caucasians, those with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or coronary artery disease, and those prescribed statins. BVD indicates proportion with severe aortic stenosis due to bicuspid valve disease; CDT, proportion with severe aortic stenosis due to calcific degeneration of tricuspid aortic valve; SAS, proportion with severe aortic stenosis.
OR: crude odd ratio for developing severe aortic stenosis given a demographic or presence of a risk factor unadjusted for any other factors.
P<0.0001.
Figure 2.The overall and etiology‐specific likelihood of severe aortic stenosis given each continuous risk factor. The overall and etiology‐specific probability of severe aortic stenosis as a function of age, creatinine, and BMI, unadjusted for other risk factors, is shown. Older patients and patients with higher creatinine had a higher probability of having severe aortic stenosis. BMI indicates body mass index.
Figure 3.Probability of severe aortic stenosis by age and race. The probability of severe aortic stenosis with 95% confidence interval as a function of age for African Americans and Caucasians, adjusted for other risk factors, is shown here with distribution of patient ages noted at top. The difference in probability of severe aortic stenosis between the two races is present and significant at all ages.
Figure 4.Partial effect of each predictor on model for severe aortic stenosis. The partial effect of each risk factor and demographic group on the probability of severe aortic stenosis is shown below. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals are shown for categorical values and P values are shown for continuous variable. Age had the greatest effect followed by coronary artery disease, diabetes, race, and creatinine. Sex, statin use, and hypertension had less predictive value. CAD indicates coronary artery disease; OR, odds ratio; HTN, hypertension.
Figure 5.Probability of senile calcific severe aortic stenosis by race and age. The probability of senile calcific severe aortic stenosis with 95% confidence interval as a function of age for African Americans and Caucasians is shown here with distribution of patient ages noted at top. The difference in probability of senile calcific severe aortic stenosis between the two races is present and significant at all ages.
Figure 6.Probability of bicuspid severe aortic stenosis by race and age. The probability of bicuspid severe aortic stenosis with 95% confidence interval as a function of age for African Americans and Caucasians is shown here with distribution of patient ages noted at top. The difference in probability of bicuspid severe aortic stenosis between the two races is present at all ages.