Modelling studies to estimate the prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease carriers after reactive vaccination.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically significant viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Vaccination can be used to help restrict the spread of the infection, but evidence must be provided to show that the infection has been eradicated in order to regain the FMD-free status. While serological tests have been developed, which can identify animals that have been infected regardless of vaccination status, it is vital to know the probable prevalence of herds with FMD carriers and the within-herd prevalence of those carriers in order to design efficient post-epidemic surveillance strategies that establish freedom from disease. Here, we present the results of a study to model the expected prevalence of carriers after application of emergency vaccination and the impact of this on the sensitivity of test systems for their detection. Results showed that the expected prevalence of carrier-containing herds after reactive vaccination is likely to be very low, approximately 0.2%, and there will only be a small number of carriers, most likely one, in the positive herds. Therefore, sensitivity for carrier detection can be optimized by adopting an individual-based testing regime in which all animals in all vaccinated herds are tested and positive animals rather than herds are culled.