STUDY OBJECTIVE: To apply Markov chain models that have previously been used on data in randomised trials of breast cancer screening to data from an uncontrolled service screening programme; to compare results with those from a randomised trial. DESIGN: A service screening programme in Uppsala county, Sweden, inviting 25,660 women aged 39-49 to mammographic screening every 20 months, and the Swedish Two-County Trial inviting 19,844 women aged 40-49 to two yearly screening, compared with 15,604 women of the same age in an unscreened control group. Data were analysed using Markov chain models and quasi-likelihood estimation procedures. MAIN RESULTS: The results with respect to parameters of disease progression were very similar between the two studies. Use of estimated progression rates to predict the effect on mortality ranged from a 10% to a 17% reduction in breast cancer mortality in the Two-County Study and predicted a 15% reduction in the Uppsala programme. These compare well with the observed mortality reduction of 13% in the Two-County Trial. CONCLUSIONS: The screening in the Uppsala programme is likely to have a similar effect to that observed in the Two-County Trial. It is feasible to evaluate non-randomised service screening programmes using Markov chain models.
RCT Entities:
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To apply Markov chain models that have previously been used on data in randomised trials of breast cancer screening to data from an uncontrolled service screening programme; to compare results with those from a randomised trial. DESIGN: A service screening programme in Uppsala county, Sweden, inviting 25,660 women aged 39-49 to mammographic screening every 20 months, and the Swedish Two-County Trial inviting 19,844 women aged 40-49 to two yearly screening, compared with 15,604 women of the same age in an unscreened control group. Data were analysed using Markov chain models and quasi-likelihood estimation procedures. MAIN RESULTS: The results with respect to parameters of disease progression were very similar between the two studies. Use of estimated progression rates to predict the effect on mortality ranged from a 10% to a 17% reduction in breast cancer mortality in the Two-County Study and predicted a 15% reduction in the Uppsala programme. These compare well with the observed mortality reduction of 13% in the Two-County Trial. CONCLUSIONS: The screening in the Uppsala programme is likely to have a similar effect to that observed in the Two-County Trial. It is feasible to evaluate non-randomised service screening programmes using Markov chain models.
Authors: L Nyström; L E Rutqvist; S Wall; A Lindgren; M Lindqvist; S Rydén; I Andersson; N Bjurstam; G Fagerberg; J Frisell Journal: Lancet Date: 1993-04-17 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: L Tabár; C J Fagerberg; A Gad; L Baldetorp; L H Holmberg; O Gröntoft; U Ljungquist; B Lundström; J C Månson; G Eklund Journal: Lancet Date: 1985-04-13 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Nora Pashayan; Paul Pharoah; László Tabár; David E Neal; Richard M Martin; Jenny Donovan; Freddie Hamdy; Stephen W Duffy Journal: Cancer Epidemiol Date: 2010-08-16 Impact factor: 2.984
Authors: K H X Tan; L Simonella; H L Wee; A Roellin; Y-W Lim; W-Y Lim; K S Chia; M Hartman; A R Cook Journal: Br J Cancer Date: 2013-10-01 Impact factor: 7.640