| Literature DB >> 35677817 |
Han Lu1, Gaici Xue2, Sisi Li3, Yangjiayi Mu4, Yi Xu3, Bo Hong3, Qinghai Huang3, Qiang Li3, Pengfei Yang3, Rui Zhao3, Yibin Fang3, Qiang Luo5, Yu Zhou6, Jianmin Liu3.
Abstract
Background: Endovascular treatment for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) has high fatality and permanent disability rates. It remains unclear how the prognosis is determined by the complex interaction between clinical severity and aneurysm characteristics. Objective: This study aimed to design an accurate prognostic prediction model for aSAH patients after endovascular treatment and elucidate the interaction between clinical severity and aneurysm characteristics.Entities:
Keywords: endovascular treatment; imbalanced data; machine learning; prognostic prediction; reinforcement learning
Year: 2022 PMID: 35677817 PMCID: PMC9168851 DOI: 10.1177/17562864221099473
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ther Adv Neurol Disord ISSN: 1756-2856 Impact factor: 6.430
Figure 1.Overview of the study design. (a) Using the training data set, a 5-fold cross-validation was used to select the best model from four machine learning (ML) models [i.e. the linear support vector machine (SVM), the regularized logistic regression (RLR), the random forest (RF), and the meta-sampler (MESA)]. Using an independent test data set, the best-performed ML model was compared with the three classic models: the WFNS grade, the Hunt-Hess grade, and the Modified Fisher grade. (b) The SVM, RF, and RLR adopt the way of bagging ensemble learning, and 11 base learners were used for these three models.
Clinical and aneurysm characteristics.
| Variables | Group | |
|---|---|---|
| Training | Testing | |
| Age, years | 57.4 ± 12.0 | 58.3 ± 11.0 |
| Female | 648 (63.0) | 105 (64.8) |
| Hypertension | 584 (56.8) | 92 (56.8) |
| Diabetes mellitus | 86 (8.4) | 12 (7.4) |
| Coronary heart disease | 53 (5.2) | 2 (1.2) |
| Smoking history | 148 (14.4) | 14 (8.6) |
| Lung infection | 122 (11.9) | 34 (21.0) |
| Acute hydrocephalus | 74 (7.2) | 8 (4.9) |
| WFNS grade | ||
| I–III | 815 (79.2) | 127 (78.4) |
| IV–V | 214 (20.8) | 35 (21.6) |
| Hunt-Hess grade | ||
| I–III | 909 (88.3) | 142 (87.7) |
| IV–V | 120 (11.7) | 20 (12.3) |
| Modified Fisher grade | ||
| 0–2 | 796 (77.4) | 120 (74.1) |
| 3–4 | 233 (22.6) | 42 (25.9) |
| Aneurysm size, mm | 5.0 ± 2.8 | 4.7 ± 2.3 |
| <3 | 178 (17.3) | 29 (17.9) |
| 3–10 | 801 (77.8) | 127 (78.4) |
| >10 | 50 (4.9) | 6 (3.7) |
| Neck size, mm | 3.1 ± 1.4 | 3.2 ± 1.5 |
| Dome-to-neck ratio | 1.7 ± 0.6 | 1.5 ± 0.6 |
| Location | ||
| Internal carotid artery | 116 (11.3) | 24 (14.8) |
| Posterior communicating artery | 322 (31.3) | 50 (30.9) |
| Anterior cerebral artery | 46 (4.5) | 10 (6.2) |
| Middle cerebral artery | 134 (13.0) | 13 (8.0) |
| Anterior communicating artery | 345 (33.5) | 54 (33.3) |
| Posterior circulation | 66 (6.4) | 11 (6.8) |
| Bifurcation | 742 (72.1) | 96 (59.3) |
| Multiple aneurysms | 212 (20.6) | 36 (22.2) |
| Irregular shape | 418 (40.6) | 74 (45.7) |
| mRS of 3–6 | 179 (17.4) | 28 (17.3) |
mm, millimeter; mRS, modified Rankin Scale score; WFNS, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies.
Unless indicated otherwise, data are presented as the number of patients (%).
Comparison of model performances using the training data set.
| Model | All patients | Patients with good-grade aSAH | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC | |
| ML algorithm | ||||||
| RLR | 0.768 ± 0.066 | 0.856 ± 0.025 | 0.884 ± 0.032 | 0.713 ± 0.123 | 0.693 ± 0.029 | 0.788 ± 0.069 |
| SVM | 0.759 ± 0.068 | 0.858 ± 0.024 | 0.877 ± 0.032 | 0.715 ± 0.126 | 0.689 ± 0.028 | 0.780 ± 0.076 |
| RF | 0.996 ± 0.020 | 0.867 ± 0.027 | 0.982 ± 0.011 | 0.991 ± 0.046 | 0.726 ± 0.031 | 0.980 ± 0.040 |
| MESA algorithm | 0.738 ± 0.103 | 0.793 ± 0.050 | 0.836 ± 0.041 | 0.673 ± 0.127 | 0.604 ± 0.059 | 0.702 ± 0.058 |
aSAH, aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; AUC, the area under the curve; MESA, meta-sampler; RF, random forest; RLR, regularized logistic regression; SVM, support vector machine.
The mean and the standard deviation established by 1000 bootstraps were reported before and after the ‘±’, respectively.
Figure 2.Comparison of model performances using the test data set. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were compared among these models using the independent test data set. (a) The mean ROC curve of each model trained using all patients. (b) The mean ROC curve of each model trained using the patients with good grade of clinical severity. (c) The standard deviation of the ROC curve for each model trained using all patients. (d) The standard deviation of the ROC curve for each model trained using the patients with good grade of clinical severity.
Figure 3.Rankings of feature contributions to the prognostic prediction. (a) The contributions to the RF model trained using all patients with aSAH. (b) The contributions to the RF model trained using the patients with good grade of clinical severity.
Comparison of performances between the RF models with and without including one group of features.
| Model | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC | AUC 95%CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | ||||
| All of the 18 clinical variables | 0.709 ± 0.087 | 0.805 ± 0.034 | 0.869 ± 0.036 | |
| Without aneurysm characteristics | 0.746 ± 0.085 | 0.761 ± 0.037 | 0.822 ± 0.052 | [0.005, 0.087] |
| Without age | 0.713 ± 0.088 | 0.843 ± 0.032 | 0.845 ± 0.045 | [0.002, 0.065] |
| Without clinical severity scores | 0.681 ± 0.087 | 0.715 ± 0.039 | 0.792 ± 0.042 | [0.002, 0.143] |
| With delayed cerebral ischemia | 0.755 ± 0.083 | 0.812 ± 0.033 | 0.882 ± 0.034 | [−0.002, 0.023] |
| Patients with good-grade aSAH | ||||
| All of the 18 clinical variables | 0.681 ± 0.087 | 0.715 ± 0.039 | 0.792 ± 0.042 | |
| Without aneurysm characteristics | 0.501 ± 0.183 | 0.698 ± 0.043 | 0.632 ± 0.097 | [0.003, 0.255] |
| Without age | 0.632 ± 0.167 | 0.656 ± 0.044 | 0.628 ± 0.083 | [0.016, 0.217] |
| Without clinical severity scores | 0.744 ± 0.151 | 0.650 ± 0.043 | 0.807 ± 0.053 | [−0.117, 0.028] |
| With delayed cerebral ischemia | 0.633 ± 0.173 | 0.725 ± 0.041 | 0.776 ± 0.061 | [−0.026, 0.056] |
aSAH, aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; AUC, the area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; RF, random forest.
The mean and the standard deviation established by 1000 bootstraps using the test data set were reported before and after the ‘±’, respectively. Δ AUC 95%CI stands for the 95% confidence interval of the difference in AUC between the RF model with all the 18 clinical variables and the RF model without a group of features or with an additional group of features.