| Literature DB >> 35011915 |
Hyouk Jae Lim1,2, Young Sun Ro1,2, Ki Hong Kim1,2, Jeong Ho Park1,2, Ki Jeong Hong1,2, Kyoung Jun Song2,3, Sang Do Shin1,2.
Abstract
Early risk stratification of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with insufficient information in emergency departments (ED) is difficult but critical in improving intensive care resource allocation. This study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score using initial information in the ED. Adult patients who had OHCA with medical etiology from 2016 to 2020 were enrolled from the Korean Cardiac Arrest Research Consortium (KoCARC) database. To develop a scoring system, a backward logistic regression analysis was conducted. The developed scoring system was validated in both external dataset and internal bootstrap resampling. A total of 8240 patients were analyzed, including 4712 in the development cohort and 3528 in the external validation cohort. An ED-PLANN score (range 0-5) was developed incorporating 1 point for each: P for serum pH ≤ 7.1, L for serum lactate ≥ 10 mmol/L, A for age ≥ 70 years old, N for non-shockable rhythm, and N for no-prehospital return of spontaneous circulation. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) for favorable neurological outcome was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94) in the development cohort, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95) in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests also indicated good agreement. The ED-PLANN score is a practical and easily applicable clinical scoring system for predicting favorable neurological outcomes of OHCA patients.Entities:
Keywords: big data; cardiac arrest; prediction model; prognosis
Year: 2021 PMID: 35011915 PMCID: PMC8745643 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11010174
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Clin Med ISSN: 2077-0383 Impact factor: 4.241
Figure 1Study flow chart of the development and validation cohorts. OHCA: out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, EMS: emergency medical services, ED: emergency department.
Characteristics of the development cohort population.
| Development Cohort | Total | Favorable Neurological Outcome | Poor Neurological Outcome | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | |||
| Total | 4712 | 603 | 4109 | ||
| Sex, female | 3145 (66.7) | 470 (77.9) | 2675 (65.1) | <0.01 | |
| Age, years | <0.01 | ||||
| 18–49 | 613 (13.0) | 155 (25.7) | 458 (11.1) | ||
| 50–59 | 747 (15.9) | 194 (32.2) | 553 (13.5) | ||
| 60–69 | 878 (18.6) | 147 (24.4) | 731 (17.8) | ||
| 70–79 | 1242 (26.4) | 75 (12.4) | 1167 (28.4) | ||
| 80–120 | 1232 (26.1) | 32 (5.3) | 1200 (29.2) | ||
| Median (IQR) | 71 (58–80) | 57 (49–67) | 73 (60–81) | <0.01 | |
| Past medical history | |||||
| Diabetes mellitus | 1224 (26.0) | 109 (18.1) | 1115 (27.1) | <0.01 | |
| Hypertension | 1898 (40.3) | 229 (38.0) | 1669 (40.6) | 0.22 | |
| Dyslipidemia | 238 (5.1) | 42 (7.0) | 196 (4.8) | 0.02 | |
| Residence of patient | 0.04 | ||||
| Metropolitan | 3185 (67.6) | 386 (64.0) | 2799 (68.1) | ||
| Place of arrest | <0.01 | ||||
| Public | 1273 (27.0) | 255 (42.3) | 1018 (24.8) | ||
| Private | 2763 (58.6) | 232 (38.5) | 2531 (61.6) | ||
| Others | 676 (14.3) | 116 (19.2) | 560 (13.6) | ||
| Witnessed | 2993 (63.5) | 510 (84.6) | 2483 (60.4) | <0.01 | |
| Bystander CPR | 2474 (52.5) | 359 (59.5) | 2115 (51.5) | <0.01 | |
| Bystander defibrillation | 39 (0.8) | 21 (3.5) | 18 (0.4) | <0.01 | |
| Initial shockable rhythm at the scene | 981 (20.8) | 437 (72.5) | 544 (13.2) | <0.01 | |
| EMS time, minute | |||||
| Response time interval, median (IQR) | 7 (5–10) | 7 (5–9) | 7 (5–10) | <0.01 | |
| Scene time interval, median (IQR) | 13 (9–17) | 10 (6–14) | 13 (9–18) | <0.01 | |
| Transport time interval, median (IQR) | 9 (6–13) | 11 (7–17) | 9 (6–13) | <0.01 | |
| Prehospital treatment | |||||
| EMS defibrillation | 1228 (26.1) | 461 (76.5) | 767 (18.7) | <0.01 | |
| Mechanical CPR device | 1000 (21.2) | 33 (5.5) | 967 (23.5) | <0.01 | |
| Epinephrine | 777 (16.5) | 44 (7.3) | 733 (17.8) | <0.01 | |
| Prehospital ROSC | 860 (18.3) | 480 (79.6) | 380 (9.2) | <0.01 | |
| Initial blood gas analysis | |||||
| pH, median (IQR) | 6.93 (6.80–7.09) | 7.26 (7.14–7.33) | 6.91 (6.80–7.03) | <0.01 | |
| pCO2, median (IQR) | 70.0 (46.3–94.0) | 37.1 (30.8–46.0) | 74.7 (53.8–97.9) | <0.01 | |
| pO2, median (IQR) | 51.3 (24.0–86.5) | 95.3 (65.5–163.1) | 45.3 (22.6–76.8) | <0.01 | |
| lactate, median (IQR) | 11.8 (8.3–15.0) | 7.5 (4.8–10.6) | 12.4 (9.0–15.0) | <0.01 | |
| Post-resuscitation care | |||||
| TTM | 531 (11.3) | 180 (29.9) | 351 (8.5) | <0.01 | |
| Reperfusion therapy | 749 (15.9) | 422 (70.0) | 327 (8.0) | <0.01 | |
| ECMO | 141 (3.0) | 30 (5.0) | 111 (2.7) | <0.01 | |
| Survival to discharge | 854 (18.1) | - | - | ||
| Favorable neurological outcome | 603 (12.8) | - | - | ||
Abbreviations: IQR, interquartile range; CPR, cardiopulmonary resuscitation; EMS, emergency medical services; ROSC, return of spontaneous circulation; TTM, targeted temperature management; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.
ED-PLANN score and modified ED-PLANN score: simple risk stratification scores predicting favorable neurological outcomes for OHCA patients.
| Abbreviations | Variables | Odds Ratio | 95% CI | Beta Coefficient | Schneeweiss’s Beta Scoring | ED-PLANN Scoring | Modified ED-PLANN Scoring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | pH ≤7.1 | 4.14 | 3.09–5.54 | 0.71 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| L | Lactate ≥10 mmol/L | 1.69 | 1.27–2.24 | 0.26 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| A | Age ≥70 years | 4.56 | 3.54–5.89 | 0.76 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| N | Non–shockable rhythm | 4.56 | 3.54–5.89 | 0.76 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| N | No prehospital ROSC | 9.11 | 6.98–11.89 | 1.10 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval.
Figure 2Probability of favorable neurological outcome in the validation cohort: (a) probability of favorable neurological outcome of the ED-PLANN score; (b) probability of favorable neurological outcome of the modified ED-PLANN score.
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the development and validation cohort groups.
| ED-PLANN Score | Modified ED-PLANN Score | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUROC | CI | AUROC | CI | ||
| Development cohort | Favorable neurological outcome | 0.93 | 0.92–0.94 | 0.93 | 0.92–0.94 |
| Survival to discharge | 0.88 | 0.86–0.89 | 0.88 | 0.87–0.90 | |
| Internal validation cohort | Favorable neurological outcome | 0.93 | 0.92–0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92–0.94 |
| Survival to discharge | 0.87 | 0.86–0.88 | 0.87 | 0.86–0.88 | |
| External validation cohort | Favorable neurological outcome | 0.94 | 0.92–0.95 | 0.95 | 0.93–0.96 |
| Survival to discharge | 0.85 | 0.83–0.87 | 0.86 | 0.84–0.88 | |