Maureen R Benjamins1, Abigail Silva2, Nazia S Saiyed1, Fernando G De Maio3,4. 1. Sinai Urban Health Institute, Chicago, Illinois. 2. Loyola University, Chicago, Illinois. 3. DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois. 4. American Medical Association, Chicago, Illinois.
Abstract
Importance: To address elevated mortality rates and historically entrenched racial inequities in mortality rates, the United States needs targeted efforts at all levels of government. However, few or no all-cause mortality data are available at the local level to motivate and guide city-level actions for health equity within the country's biggest cities. Objectives: To provide city-level data on all-cause mortality rates and racial inequities within cities and to determine whether these measures changed during the past decade. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and American Community Survey population estimates to calculate city-level mortality rates for the non-Hispanic Black (Black) population, non-Hispanic White (White) population, and total population from January 2016 to December 2018. Changes from January 2009 to December 2018 were examined with joinpoint regression. Data were analyzed for the United States and the 30 most populous US cities. Data analysis was conducted from February to November 2020. Exposure: City of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Total population and race-specific age-standardized mortality rates using 3-year averages, mortality rate ratios between Black and White populations, excess Black deaths, and annual average percentage change in mortality rates and rate ratios. Results: The study included 26 295 827 death records. In 2016 to 2018, all-cause mortality rates ranged from 537 per 100 000 population in San Francisco to 1342 per 100 000 in Las Vegas compared with the overall US rate of 759 per 100 000. The all-cause mortality rate among Black populations was 24% higher than among White populations nationally (rate ratio, 1.236; 95% CI, 1.233 to 1.238), resulting in 74 402 excess Black deaths annually. At the city level, this ranged from 6 excess Black deaths in El Paso to 3804 excess Black deaths every year in Chicago. The US rate remained constant during the study period (average annual percentage change, -0.10%; 95% CI, -0.34% to 0.14%; P = .42). The racial inequities in rates for the US decreased between 2008 and 2019 (annual average percentage change, -0.51%; 95% CI, -0.92% to -0.09%; P =0.02). Only 14 of 30 cities (46.7%) experienced improvements in overall mortality rates during the past decade. Racial inequities increased in more cities (6 [20.0%]) than in which it decreased (2 [6.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, mortality rates and inequities between Black and White populations varied substantially among the largest US cities. City leaders and other health advocates can use these types of local data on the burden of death and health inequities in their jurisdictions to increase awareness and advocacy related to racial health inequities, to guide the allocation of local resources, to monitor trends over time, and to highlight effective population health strategies.
Importance: To address elevated mortality rates and historically entrenched racial inequities in mortality rates, the United States needs targeted efforts at all levels of government. However, few or no all-cause mortality data are available at the local level to motivate and guide city-level actions for health equity within the country's biggest cities. Objectives: To provide city-level data on all-cause mortality rates and racial inequities within cities and to determine whether these measures changed during the past decade. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and American Community Survey population estimates to calculate city-level mortality rates for the non-Hispanic Black (Black) population, non-Hispanic White (White) population, and total population from January 2016 to December 2018. Changes from January 2009 to December 2018 were examined with joinpoint regression. Data were analyzed for the United States and the 30 most populous US cities. Data analysis was conducted from February to November 2020. Exposure: City of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Total population and race-specific age-standardized mortality rates using 3-year averages, mortality rate ratios between Black and White populations, excess Black deaths, and annual average percentage change in mortality rates and rate ratios. Results: The study included 26 295 827 death records. In 2016 to 2018, all-cause mortality rates ranged from 537 per 100 000 population in San Francisco to 1342 per 100 000 in Las Vegas compared with the overall US rate of 759 per 100 000. The all-cause mortality rate among Black populations was 24% higher than among White populations nationally (rate ratio, 1.236; 95% CI, 1.233 to 1.238), resulting in 74 402 excess Black deaths annually. At the city level, this ranged from 6 excess Black deaths in El Paso to 3804 excess Black deaths every year in Chicago. The US rate remained constant during the study period (average annual percentage change, -0.10%; 95% CI, -0.34% to 0.14%; P = .42). The racial inequities in rates for the US decreased between 2008 and 2019 (annual average percentage change, -0.51%; 95% CI, -0.92% to -0.09%; P =0.02). Only 14 of 30 cities (46.7%) experienced improvements in overall mortality rates during the past decade. Racial inequities increased in more cities (6 [20.0%]) than in which it decreased (2 [6.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, mortality rates and inequities between Black and White populations varied substantially among the largest US cities. City leaders and other health advocates can use these types of local data on the burden of death and health inequities in their jurisdictions to increase awareness and advocacy related to racial health inequities, to guide the allocation of local resources, to monitor trends over time, and to highlight effective population health strategies.
All-cause mortality, a primary measure of a population’s health, has been
documented in the United States since the 1800s. National mortality rates have
declined significantly during the past century, until a recent increase in
2015.[1,2] Although these data are
important for benchmarking our nation’s progress, the examination of mortality
rates within population subgroups and use of more local data can reveal important
differences.[3,4,5,6]In the United States, racial inequities in all-cause mortality are prominent. Black
individuals have had higher death rates than White individuals for as long as
records of race-specific mortality have existed.[7] Although these disparities have generally
narrowed, they remain a critical marker of continued injustice.[1,8,9] However, little is known about racial inequities in mortality at
a more local level.All-cause mortality rates have been shown to vary by region, state, and
county.[3,10,11] For example, in 2016 the age-adjusted
all-cause mortality rate (per 100 000 population) at the state level ranged
from 492 in California to 768 in Mississippi.[11] Huge variations at the county level are
also observed.[3,10] However, even counties
are large enough to obscure important geographic differences.[12] Thus, researchers have
increasingly focused on obtaining more local data to identify inequities and drive
place-based initiatives.[5,13] Indeed, a recent call to
public health action included a demand for “timely, reliable, granular-level
(ie, subcounty), and actionable data.”[14]Cities represent an ideal level of analysis because they correspond to primary
political jurisdictions, unlike neighborhoods or census tracts. City officials,
public health professionals, and other health advocates need data for their
jurisdictions to make evidence-based changes in policies, services, and
funding.[14] In
particular, local departments of public health, in partnership with city agencies
and offices, create many health-related policies and guide large budgets.[15] Local health departments
serving areas of 500 000 to 999 999 residents spend a mean of $47
million annually, whereas those serving areas with greater than 1 million residents
spend a mean of $174 million.[15]Despite this need for local data, to our knowledge no existing sources provide
all-cause mortality rates for the most populous US cities. Several important
initiatives, including the 500 Cities project[16] and the City Health Dashboard,[17] make city-level health
data available; however, neither includes all-cause mortality. The Big Cities Health
Inventory does include all-cause mortality, but as of this writing, the latest data
were available for only 5 cities.[18] Furthermore, no city-level information on racial inequities
in all-cause mortality was found in any source. It is critical to examine explicit
measures of inequities and how these inequities change over time to assess progress
in achieving health equity, a fundamental goal of the US Healthy People
initiative.[19]To address these gaps in knowledge, the current study assessed total and
race-specific all-cause mortality and inequities between Black and White populations
for the 30 most populous US cities. We also examined trends during the past decade
to identify cities that have experienced improvements in rates and health
equity.
Methods
This study was reviewed by the Mount Sinai Hospital institutional review board and
was ruled exempt from review because it uses publicly available, deidentified data.
This study followed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in
Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting guideline.
Study Population
We identified the 30 most populous cities through 2013 US Census Bureau data.
Inclusion was limited to these cities to ensure enough deaths for examination of
Black and White populations for all-cause mortality and the leading causes of
death in the broader research project.[20] The cities, which make up 12.5% of
the US population, are listed in eTable 1 in the Supplement
along with selected demographic data.
Data Sources
Mortality Data
Mortality data came from the Multiple Cause of Death data files from the
National Vital Statistics System.[21] For 2009 to 2018, we extracted
race-specific deaths by age group (ie, 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44,
45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years and older), race and ethnicity, and
place of residence. Age groups were selected to closely match those used by
the National Vital Statistics System for age adjustment, with an alteration
made to combine individuals younger than 1 year and those aged 1 to 4 years
into 1 group to match the population data.[1] We excluded the records of non-US
residents and records in which age was missing. Death certificate data were
filled out by proxy (eg, funeral director, attending physician).[22]
Population Data
For each city, total, race-specific, and age-specific population-based
denominators were obtained from the US Census Bureau American Community
Survey 5-year population estimates. When calculating rates for a single
year, we used the survey’s 5-year estimate for the corresponding year
because it provides more reliable estimates than 1-year samples; when
calculating outcome measures for a group of 3 years, we used the
survey’s 5-year estimate for the middle year and applied a multiplier
of 3 to estimate the population during the entire period. Race and ethnicity
data in the American Community Survey and census were self-reported.The total and non-Hispanic White population estimates were drawn directly
from the American Community Survey. Although non-Hispanic Black populations
are reported in the census, the American Community Survey only provides
estimates of the total (Hispanic and non-Hispanic) Black population. We
therefore calculated the age-specific proportion of the 2010 Black
population that was non-Hispanic and applied this proportion to the Black
population data from the American Community Survey to estimate the
non-Hispanic Black population. The total city outcomes included all
race/ethnicity groups (not just Black and White). County data were used in 3
instances in which city and county governments created a consolidated city
(ie, Louisville and Jefferson County, Kentucky; Nashville and Davidson
County, Tennessee; and Indianapolis and Marion County, Indiana). Black and
White population estimates were subtracted from the total population
estimates to find the other population estimates. We summed population data
from each of the 30 cities to calculate 30-city combined mortality rates. We
subtracted the 30-city combined population from the US population to find
the US population minus these 30 cities.
Statistical Analysis
Age-adjusted total and race-specific mortality rates were calculated for all 30
cities. Age-adjusted rates per 100 000 population were calculated with the
standard US population in 2000.[23] A 3-year average mortality rate was used (2016-2018) to
provide a more stable time estimate for the most recent period. One-year rates
were used to estimate the average annual percentage change.Relative inequities were assessed with rate ratios between Black and White
populations. We also calculated the number of excess Black deaths by multiplying
the age-specific White mortality rates by the corresponding Black populations in
each age category. The sum of these products was the number of Black deaths that
would be expected if death rates among the White population were applied to this
population. We then subtracted the expected deaths from the number of observed
deaths to obtain the excess number of deaths annually. We used White individuals
as the reference group because they are the largest racial group in the United
States and generally have more favorable health outcomes than other racial and
ethnic groups.[24] For
rate ratios, we calculated standard errors, and we calculated CIs with a Taylor
series expansion technique.[25]Trends were examined with log linear joinpoint regression models to calculate the
average annual percentage changes and their 95% CIs.[26,27] To assess inequities, we imported the annual
log-transformed rate ratios and their standard errors to calculate the average
annual percentage changes. The latter are the weighted average of the annual
percentage change from the joinpoint model in which the weights equal the length
of the annual percentage change interval. This approach provides a more stable
estimate of the trend within a fixed interval.[26] The average annual percentage change
helps determine the direction, magnitude, and significance of changes in rates
and rate ratios over time. An increase is denoted by an average annual
percentage change greater than 0 (P < .05) and a
decrease, by an average annual percentage change less than 0
(P < .05); otherwise, the trend is considered
stable. All statistical tests were 2 sided. We used Joinpoint version 4.8.0.1
(National Cancer Institute) to run the joinpoint regression models.
Results
A total of 26 348 491 death records were assessed for eligibility, and we
excluded 51 159 records of non-US residents and 1505 records in which age was
missing. Thus, there were 26 295 827 death records from 2009 to 2018
included in the analysis.
Total Mortality Rates
In 2016 to 2018, the all-cause mortality rate for the US was 759 per
100 000 individuals (Table). The annual US mortality rate did not significantly change
between 2009 and 2018 (average annual percentage change, –0.10%; 95% CI,
–0.34% to 0.14%; P = .42). City rates ranged
from 537 per 100 000 individuals (San Francisco) to 1342 per 100 000
individuals (Las Vegas). The combined rate of the 30 cities (724 per
100 000 individuals) was substantially lower than that of the US as a
whole. Full data for the 3 periods (2010-2012, 2013-2015, and 2016-2018) are
available in eTable 2 in the Supplement.
Table.
All-Cause Mortality Rates and Measures of Inequities for the United
States and 30 Most Populous Cities, 2016 to 2018
Location
Mortality
rate, per 100 000 individuals
Rate ratio
between Black and White individuals (95% CI)
Total
Non-Hispanic
Othera
Black
White
United States
759
960
777
539
1.236 (1.233-1.238)
Las Vegas, NV
1342
1718
1462
924
1.18 (1.13-1.22)
Baltimore, MD
993
1107
870
343
1.27 (1.23-1.31)
Detroit, MI
984
1048
795
670
1.32 (1.26-1.38)
Memphis, TN
951
1086
786
475
1.38 (1.34-1.43)
Indianapolis, INb
911
1068
896
451
1.19 (1.16-1.23)
Louisville, KYb
910
1069
902
425
1.19 (1.15-1.23)
Houston, TX
895
1226
850
734
1.44 (1.41-1.47)
Jacksonville, FL
894
985
926
499
1.06 (1.03-1.09)
Philadelphia, PA
870
1013
827
597
1.22 (1.20-1.25)
Nashville, TNb
868
1041
849
470
1.23 (1.18-1.27)
San Antonio, TX
866
1105
918
802
1.20 (1.16-1.25)
Columbus, OH
858
975
870
323
1.12 (1.08-1.16)
Portland, OR
837
1209
849
618
1.42 (1.34-1.52)
Fort Worth, TX
823
1103
831
588
1.33 (1.28-1.38)
Oklahoma City, OK
813
1114
811
535
1.37 (1.31-1.44)
Dallas, TX
795
1092
736
590
1.48 (1.44-1.52)
Chicago, IL
756
1065
644
523
1.65 (1.62-1.68)
El Paso, TX
735
894
847
704
1.05 (0.95-1.18)
Washington, DC
733
993
428
402
2.32 (2.22-2.42)
Charlotte, NC
729
931
678
385
1.37 (1.33-1.42)
Denver, CO
715
918
689
683
1.33 (1.27-1.40)
Austin, TX
687
980
698
563
1.40 (1.33-1.48)
Phoenix, AZ
686
938
694
612
1.35 (1.29-1.42)
Boston, MA
632
735
666
450
1.10 (1.06-1.15)
Los Angeles, CA
619
1102
605
522
1.82 (1.78-1.86)
San Diego, CA
592
857
622
499
1.38 (1.32-1.45)
Seattle, WA
588
945
587
484
1.61 (1.52-1.71)
New York, NY
570
718
542
504
1.33 (1.31-1.34)
San Jose, CA
549
856
654
455
1.31 (1.20-1.42)
San Francisco, CA
537
1102
573
455
1.92 (1.83-2.03)
30 cities combined
724
971
717
558
1.354 (1.347-1.361)
US minus 30 cities
764
959
782
533
1.226 (1.223-1.229)
The other race/ethnicity group includes all individuals other than
those in the non-Hispanic Black or non-Hispanic White
categories.
Data are for consolidated city and county.
The other race/ethnicity group includes all individuals other than
those in the non-Hispanic Black or non-Hispanic White
categories.Data are for consolidated city and county.Fourteen of the cities experienced significant declines in mortality between 2009
and 2018 (Figure 1). The average
annual percentage change for these cities ranged from −0.33% in Chicago
(95% CI, −0.51% to −0.14%; P = .003) to
−1.74% (95% CI, −2.32% to −1.15%;
P < .001) in Seattle. Three cities
(Indianapolis, Louisville, and Houston) had significant increases in rates. The
mortality rates for the remaining 13 cities were stable over time.
Figure 1.
Average Annual Percentage Change in All-Cause Mortality Rates for the
Total, Black, and White Populations, 2009 to 2018
Darker blue, orange, and gray bars indicate statistical significance.
aSignificant changes, ie,
P < .05.
Average Annual Percentage Change in All-Cause Mortality Rates for the
Total, Black, and White Populations, 2009 to 2018
Darker blue, orange, and gray bars indicate statistical significance.aSignificant changes, ie,
P < .05.
Race-Specific Mortality Rates
The all-cause mortality rate among Black US residents was 960 per 100 000
individuals. Across cities, the rate among Black individuals ranged from 718 per
100 000 individuals (New York) to 1718 per 100 000 individuals (Las
Vegas). The all-cause mortality rate among White US residents for the nation was
777 per 100 000 individuals. At the city level, rates among White
individuals ranged from 428 per 100 000 individuals (Washington, DC) to
1462 per 100 000 individuals (Las Vegas). In all cities, the mortality
rate for the other race/ethnicity category was lower than the rates among both
Black and White populations.Seven cities and the US showed a significant improvement in the average annual
mortality rate among Black individuals between 2009 and 2018 (Figure 1). Mortality rates among
Black individuals declined the most in Boston (average annual percentage change,
−2.05%; 95% CI, −3.15% to −0.94%;
P = .003) and Charlotte (average annual percentage
change, −1.73%; 95% CI, −3.25% to −0.19%;
P = .03). Conversely, 3 cities (Chicago, Houston,
and Portland) experienced a significant increase in annual mortality rates among
Black individuals. Portland’s increase was particularly large (average
annual percentage change, 2.65%; 95% CI, 1.02% to 4.30%;
P = .006). Twelve cities had significant declines
in mortality rates among White individuals. Of these, Washington, DC, showed the
largest improvements (average annual percentage change, −2.09%; 95% CI,
−3.04% to −1.12%; P = .001).
Indianapolis and Louisville had significant increases in mortality rates among
White individuals. Eleven cities had consistent Black and White mortality rates
over time.
Racial Inequities
Racial inequities in mortality rates were assessed with rate ratios. In 2016 to
2018, the all-cause mortality rate among Black populations was 24% higher than
among White populations in the United States (rate ratio = 1.236;
95% CI, 1.233-1.238). The rates among Black populations were significantly
higher than those among White individuals in 29 of the 30 biggest cities
(96.7%), with rate ratios ranging from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.03-1.09) in Jacksonville
to 2.32 (95% CI, 2.22-2.42) in Washington, DC. In 1 city (El Paso), the
mortality rates among Black and White populations were not significantly
different (rate ratio = 1.05; 95% CI, 0.95-1.18). Overall, the
racial inequities were greater in the 30 big cities than the United States as a
whole.Figure 2 shows that the US rate
ratio between Black and White populations significantly decreased between 2009
and 2018 (average annual percentage change, −0.51%; 95% CI, −0.92%
to −0.09%; P = .02). Two cities, Memphis and
Philadelphia, also experienced significant annual decreases in rate ratios
(average annual percentage change, −1.70%; 95% CI, −2.71% to
−0.69%; P = .005; and −1.59%; 95% CI,
−3.14% to −0.02%; P = .047,
respectively). In contrast, 6 cities experienced significant increases in
inequities (San Francisco; Seattle; Chicago; Washington, DC; Las Vegas; and
Portland). Portland’s increase in racial inequities (associated with
increases in the rate among Black individuals) was especially pronounced
(average annual percentage change, 3.58%; 95% CI, 2.28% to 4.90%;
P < .001).
Figure 2.
Change in Mortality Rate Ratios Between Black and White Populations,
2009 to 2018
Darker blue, orange, and gray bars indicate statistical significance.
aSignificant changes, ie,
P < .05.
Change in Mortality Rate Ratios Between Black and White Populations,
2009 to 2018
Darker blue, orange, and gray bars indicate statistical significance.aSignificant changes, ie,
P < .05.In 2016 to 2018, 74 402 excess Black deaths occurred in the United States
annually because the mortality rate among Black populations was higher than that
among White populations. At the city level, the number of excess deaths was
highest in Chicago and New York, with more than 3500 excess deaths each (Figure 3). In contrast, El Paso had
only 6 excess Black deaths, and San Jose had fewer than 100.
Figure 3.
Average Annual Excess Black Deaths by City, 2016 to 2018
Excess deaths represent the average number of additional deaths in the
Black population that occurred annually because of the higher mortality
rate among Black vs White individuals.
Average Annual Excess Black Deaths by City, 2016 to 2018
Excess deaths represent the average number of additional deaths in the
Black population that occurred annually because of the higher mortality
rate among Black vs White individuals.
Comparing Cities by Outcome and Equity
We plotted the 30 cities according to their rate ratio between Black and White
individuals and their total all-cause mortality rate (Figure 4). The US mortality rate and the rate ratio
between Black and White individuals were used to separate outcomes into
quadrants. The lower-left quadrant, which includes Boston and El Paso,
represents the best-performing cities. Conversely, the upper-right quadrant
represents cities that had higher total mortality and racial inequity compared
with the US overall. Eight cities were classified as worst-performing cities,
including Memphis, Houston, and Portland. The bottom-right quadrant reveals that
cities with the lowest total mortality rates often had the highest racial
inequity. For example, San Francisco had the lowest all-cause mortality rate of
the 30 cities; however, it had the second highest level of inequity (rate
ratio = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.83-2.03). Conversely, Las Vegas and 7 other
cities had mortality rates higher than that of the entire United States but
lower racial inequity than the country as a whole.
Figure 4.
All-Cause Mortality Rates and Racial Inequities in Rates, 2016 to
2018
Quadrants are separated by lines representing the US mortality rate
(horizontal line) and the US rate ratio between Black and White
individuals (vertical line).
All-Cause Mortality Rates and Racial Inequities in Rates, 2016 to
2018
Quadrants are separated by lines representing the US mortality rate
(horizontal line) and the US rate ratio between Black and White
individuals (vertical line).
Discussion
This study addresses the increasing demand from cities and public health
professionals for data that can be used to identify local issues, compare outcomes,
and assess progress.[14,28] We provided comprehensive
city-level data, showing wide-ranging variations in all-cause mortality rates,
racial inequities in rates, and changes over time in the 30 biggest US cities. This
extends the analyses we present in Unequal Cities: Structural Racism and the
Death Gap in America’s 30 Largest Cities,[20] a book that examines
racial inequities in mortality from the leading causes of death and explores the
historical context and theoretic explanations for the entrenched inequities.Consider that, in 2016 to 2018, Las Vegas had an all-cause mortality rate that was
2.5 times higher than that of San Francisco. To put the mortality rate in Las Vegas
(1342 per 100 000 individuals) in context, it was greater than that of several
countries in the global south, including Mexico (986 per 100 000 individuals)
and Brazil (1001 per 100 000 individuals).[29] A rate that high has not been observed
for the United States as a whole since the 1950s.[1] Similarly, Baltimore had levels of
mortality similar to those observed in the United States more than 30 years
ago.[1] Only 14
cities experienced improvements in mortality rates during this period (2009-2018),
whereas mortality rates in 3 cities worsened. The remaining 13 cities, and the
United States as a whole, did not experience significant improvements in mortality
rates during the decade, mirroring the much-discussed recent setback in life
expectancy.[1,30,31,32]The data also highlighted persistent racial inequities. The extent to which these
inequities varied among cities warrants our attention. The disadvantage in mortality
among Black individuals was relatively minor (or even nonexistent) in some cities
but was substantial in others. For instance, in Washington, DC, the rate among Black
individuals was 2.3 times the rate among White individuals. In both Chicago and New
York, more than 3500 Black people died annually because of this health inequity.
Racial inequities worsened in 6 cities and improved in only 2.Although an empirical exploration of the factors associated with such variation in
mortality rates and inequities in rates between cities is beyond the scope of the
current study, we can consider potential explanations. Previous analyses have shown
that city-level characteristics associated with all-cause mortality include poverty,
median household income, percentage of Black residents, racial segregation, and
income inequality.[20,33,34] However, all of these factors must be
interpreted with historical context; they are recognized as social determinants of
health, but they are also the products of even more deep-rooted fundamental causes.
An increasing body of work in social epidemiology has attempted to disentangle
population-level social determinants of health from structural determinants of
health inequities, recognizing, for example, that racial composition is a proxy for
a wide range of social, political, and economic processes that have shaped
communities across the country.[35] Likewise, data on income inequality reflect decades’
worth of economic processes associated with the declining power of labor unions,
deindustrialization, and gentrification. It is plausible that city-level variability
in racial inequities in mortality reflects differential exposures to policies and
systems that create and reinforce this wide range of social drivers of health
inequities.Potential reasons for improvements in mortality rates in approximately half of the
cities could include similar factors, such as racial composition, per-capita income,
and population density.[36]
Recent research at the state level found associations between changes in life
expectancy and policies related to civil rights, criminal justice, education,
environment, housing, and health care, among other domains.[37] Geographically, mortality
trajectories at the county level have been found to vary by region, with negative
trajectories being concentrated in the Southeast.[30] Research on population-level changes in
cause-specific mortality can also suggest more specific avenues for
cities.[38]Most big cities (22 of 30) did not observe any statistically significant changes in
levels of racial inequities. This is remarkably disappointing, given national and
local efforts focused on health equity. Simultaneously, these results may serve to
reinforce the need for systems-level change, shifting community health improvement
efforts from behavioral to structural interventions.These types of comparative data can increase awareness and advocacy for equity, guide
the allocation of scarce resources to the appropriate locations or population
subgroups, and highlight cities that might be implementing effective population
health strategies.[39,40,41,42] However, actions undertaken to improve the health of the
overall population often differ from those required to improve health
equity.[43] Cities
that would like to focus on improving overall mortality have a plethora of resources
offering guidance and examples.[44] For instance, the Community Health Improvement Navigator
database provides tools for multisector, collaborative health initiatives.[45] Resources from the
Community Guide,[46] County
Health Rankings,[3] and the
BUILD Health Challenge[47]
also offer extensive insight and tools for communities.In contrast, actions needed to improve health equity should specifically address the
inequitable social conditions that sustain the disparities.[43] A 2019 review of
effective initiatives for achieving equity[43] included efforts related to early
childhood development, child poverty, job opportunities, and environmental
conditions in disadvantaged communities. In sum, reducing inequities in health
requires addressing deep-rooted structural racism in US society.[48] Existing sources of
health-related data at the neighborhood or census tract level can further help
cities target efforts to the geographic areas needing the most support. In addition,
race equity tools can help cities evaluate policies for their influence on
inequities.[49]City-level data are critical because policy change is most likely to occur at the
city level, not the neighborhood or census tract level. However, conducting this
type of analysis is time consuming and complex; thus, local health departments often
rely on data not specific to their actual population.[50]Understanding all-cause mortality patterns using population-based data is an
important first step. To build on this, data on city-level mortality rates (and
inequities within) for the leading causes of death in the United States are needed
to further our understanding of mortality disparities and to better support
city-level efforts. Ecologic studies linking these findings with city-level
demographic and socioeconomic characteristics will also provide more
insight.[20,51] It may also be
instructive to specifically examine cities conspicuous in our analyses for
significant improvements in overall mortality or in health equity. For example, what
might explain the substantial improvements in equity in Memphis and Philadelphia? Do
they have city or county health plans that focus on equity? Have major academic,
health care, or community organizations played a role? Or do demographic
characteristics help to explain their success? Focusing on modifiable factors
associated with improving (or worsening) mortality rates could help to inform future
policy and programmatic efforts.More broadly, we want to reiterate calls for information on equity to be provided as
part of all major sources of health information. To date, few sources of mortality
data provide this. The Health Disparities widget, part of the Healthy People
website,[19] is a
notable exception. Without a systematic (and public) documentation of racial
inequities at any level, they are easier to overlook or ignore.[52]
Limitations
This work has several limitations. First, race and ethnicity data from death
certificates may be inaccurate because they are based on proxy interviews or
observations. However, research suggests race reporting is highly accurate for
White and Black races and Hispanic ethnicity.[53,54] Our estimate of the non-Hispanic Black population
assumes the proportion of the Black population that is non-Hispanic has remained
static since the 2010 census. If the Hispanic Black population has increased in
any of our analyzed geographies, the true non-Hispanic Black population would be
smaller than we estimated, and our outcomes would have therefore underestimated
the true mortality rate. We also recognize the complexity of quantifying
inequities and acknowledge that we included several, but not all, possible
measures (because of the number of outcomes and populations).[24] Our inequities
analyses are limited to examining differences between Black and White
populations. We did not include the other largest race/ethnicity groups for
several reasons. In the US, Black and White populations are frequently used in
public health as representative of the extremes of privilege and
marginalization.[55,56]
Furthermore, Hispanic/Latinx and Asian populations generally have significantly
lower mortality rates than both Black and White populations.[1] In addition, the
smaller number of deaths for these groups would limit the number of cities we
could include in the analyses. Additionally, the current analyses did not
include an examination of ecologic factors and thus cannot account for
demographic or socioeconomic changes that may have occurred within the cities
during the study period.
Conclusions
The findings of this study suggest that mortality in the United States is associated
with one’s skin color and city of residence. This reflects the complex
dynamics connecting structural racism, demography, public policy, health care, and
the lived experience of communities and individuals. To our knowledge, we have
provided the first comprehensive summary of all-cause mortality rates and related
racial inequities at the city level. These data will help cities more strategically
pursue specific policy and programmatic changes to improve health and health equity
for their residents. Given that 4 of 5 US individuals currently live in urban areas
(and this number continues to increase),[57,58] these actions are needed to enable the United States to
move toward its goals of increasing healthy life expectancy and eliminating health
inequities.
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