| Literature DB >> 32908312 |
David Leclère1, Michael Obersteiner2,3, Mike Barrett4, Stuart H M Butchart5,6, Abhishek Chaudhary7,8, Adriana De Palma9, Fabrice A J DeClerck10,11, Moreno Di Marco12,13, Jonathan C Doelman14, Martina Dürauer15, Robin Freeman16, Michael Harfoot17, Tomoko Hasegawa15,18,19, Stefanie Hellweg20, Jelle P Hilbers14,21, Samantha L L Hill9,17, Florian Humpenöder22, Nancy Jennings23, Tamás Krisztin15, Georgina M Mace24, Haruka Ohashi25, Alexander Popp22, Andy Purvis9,26, Aafke M Schipper14,21, Andrzej Tabeau27, Hugo Valin15, Hans van Meijl27,28, Willem-Jan van Zeist14, Piero Visconti15,16,24, Rob Alkemade14,29, Rosamunde Almond30, Gill Bunting5, Neil D Burgess17, Sarah E Cornell31, Fulvio Di Fulvio15, Simon Ferrier32, Steffen Fritz15, Shinichiro Fujimori18,33,34, Monique Grooten30, Thomas Harwood32, Petr Havlík15, Mario Herrero35, Andrew J Hoskins36, Martin Jung15, Tom Kram14, Hermann Lotze-Campen22,37,38, Tetsuya Matsui25, Carsten Meyer39,40, Deon Nel41,42, Tim Newbold24, Guido Schmidt-Traub43, Elke Stehfest14, Bernardo B N Strassburg44,45, Detlef P van Vuuren14,46, Chris Ware32, James E M Watson47,48, Wenchao Wu18, Lucy Young4.
Abstract
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 32908312 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nature ISSN: 0028-0836 Impact factor: 49.962