| Literature DB >> 32076020 |
Xinpeng Shen1, Sisi Ma2, Prashanthi Vemuri3, Gyorgy Simon4.
Abstract
Causal Structure Discovery (CSD) is the problem of identifying causal relationships from large quantities of data through computational methods. With the limited ability of traditional association-based computational methods to discover causal relationships, CSD methodologies are gaining popularity. The goal of the study was to systematically examine whether (i) CSD methods can discover the known causal relationships from observational clinical data and (ii) to offer guidance to accurately discover known causal relationships. We used Alzheimer's disease (AD), a complex progressive disease, as a model because the well-established evidence provides a "gold-standard" causal graph for evaluation. We evaluated two CSD methods, Fast Causal Inference (FCI) and Fast Greedy Equivalence Search (FGES) in their ability to discover this structure from data collected by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We used structural equation models (which is not designed for CSD) as control. We applied these methods under three scenarios defined by increasing amounts of background knowledge provided to the methods. The methods were evaluated by comparing the resulting causal relationships with the "gold standard" graph that was constructed from literature. Dedicated CSD methods managed to discover graphs that nearly coincided with the gold standard. For best results, CSD algorithms should be used with longitudinal data providing as much prior knowledge as possible.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 32076020 PMCID: PMC7031278 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-59669-x
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.996
Figure 1The interpretation of edges.
Characteristics for Continuous and Categorical Variables. N = 1008.
| Label | Mean (SD) | |
|---|---|---|
| AGE | AGE | 74.09 (7.46) |
| SEX | SEX | 0.55 (0.50) |
| Education Level | EDU | 16.15 (2.71) |
| Fludeoxyglucose PET | FDG | 1.22 (0.17) |
| Amyloid Beta | ABETA | 986.29 (459.94) |
| Phosphorylated tau | PTAU | 27.67 (14.76) |
| APOE epsilon 4 allele | APOE4 | 0 (54%)/ 1 (36%)/ 2 (10%) |
| Diagnosis of Alzheimer’s Dementia | DX | CN (31%)/ MCI (46%)/ AD (23%) |
Figure 2The “gold standard” graph.
Figure 3Discovered causal structure without background knowledge & their Statistics.
Figure 4Discovered causal structure with background knowledge & their Statistics.
Figure 5Discovered causal structure with longitudinal data & their Statistics.
Recovery rate of edges.
| Number of edges removed | Fully recover rate | Precision. Mean | Recall. Mean |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.125 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
Typical problems and solutions.
| Error | Location | Reason for error | Solution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDU and SEX | Fig. | Selection bias | Add trivial knowledge |
| 2 | APOE4, PTAU and FDG | Fig. | Selection bias or Artifacts and No background knowledge | Longitudinal data |
| 3 | PTAU → DX | Fig. | Small sample size | Increase sample |