| Literature DB >> 30571598 |
Jonathan Afilalo1, Abhinav Sharma2,3, Shuaiqi Zhang2, J Matthew Brennan2,3, Fred H Edwards4, Michael J Mack5, James B McClurken6, Joseph C Cleveland7, Peter K Smith8, David M Shahian9, Eric D Peterson2,3, Karen P Alexander2,3.
Abstract
Background In older adults undergoing cardiac surgery, prediction of downstream risk is critical. Our objective was to determine the association of 5-m gait speed with 1-year mortality and repeat hospitalization following cardiac surgery. Methods and Results In this prospective cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery at centers participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Database with gait speed recorded, we examined all-cause mortality using a landmark analysis at 0 to 30, 30 to 365, and >365 days, as well as repeat hospitalization. The cohort consisted of 8287 patients (median age, 74 years; 32% females). At 1 year, survival was 90% in the slow (<0.83 m/s), 95% in the middle (0.83-1.00 m/s), and 97% in the fast (>1.00 m/s) gait speed tertiles, and risk of hospitalization was 45%, 33%, and 27%, respectively (both P<0.0001). After adjustment, gait speed remained predictive of mortality (hazard ratio, 2.16 per 0.1-m/s decrease in gait speed; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-2.93) and rehospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.71 per 0.1-m/s decrease in gait speed; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.0). In a landmark analysis, the effect of slow gait speed on mortality was most marked from 30 to 365 days after surgery, where each decline in 0.1 m/s of gait speed conferred a 2-fold increased risk of mortality. Conclusions Gait speed is a simple tool to screen for frailty and identify older adults at risk for adverse events in the early and midterm postoperative periods.Entities:
Keywords: elderly; function; mortality; surgery
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30571598 PMCID: PMC6405557 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.118.010139
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Figure 1Flow diagram. The final cohort consisted of 8287 patients aged 65 years and older that underwent nonemergent coronary artery bypass, surgical aortic or mitral valve replacement or repair, or combinations thereof. The study base consisted of 118 centers that were participating in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database, had recorded gait speed data in at least 10 patients, and had linked vital status data from CMS. CMS indicates Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; MI, myocardial infarction; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons.
Baseline Characteristics by Tertiles of Gait Speed
| Slow Tertile <0.83 m/s (N=2686) | Middle Tertile 0.83 to 1.00 m/s (N=3179) | Fast Tertile >1.00 m/s (N=2422) |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic | ||||
| Age, y (Q1, Q3) | 76 (70, 81) | 73 (69, 78) | 72 (68, 77) | <0.001 |
| Female sex | 1203 (46) | 934 (29) | 495 (20) | <0.001 |
| Race | <0.001 | |||
| White | 2396 (89) | 2895 (91) | 2143 (88) | |
| Black | 131 (5) | 119 (4) | 48 (2) | |
| Asian | 43 (2) | 58 (2) | 126 (5) | |
| Hispanic | 54 (2) | 54 (2) | 44 (2) | |
| Native American | 6 (<1) | 3 (<1) | 5 (<1) | |
| Other | 47 (2) | 40 (1) | 45 (2) | |
| Missing | 9 (<1) | 10 (<1) | 11 (<1) | |
| Clinical | ||||
| BMI, median (Q1, Q3) | 28.8 (25.2, 33.2) | 28.5 (25.5, 32.3) | 27.9 (25.1, 31.04) | <0.001 |
| Diabetes mellitus | 1263 (47) | 1239 (39) | 792 (33) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 2486 (93) | 2827 (89) | 2066 (85) | <0.001 |
| Cigarette smoker | 461 (17) | 565 (18) | 448 (19) | 0.46 |
| Severe CAD | 1418 (53) | 1641 (52) | 1237 (51) | 0.16 |
| Congestive heart failure | 947 (35) | 846 (27) | 580 (24) | <0.001 |
| LVEF, % (Q1, Q3) | 56 (50, 60) | 58 (50, 63) | 60 (50, 63) | <0.001 |
| Cancer within 5 y | 206 (8) | 246 (8) | 173 (7) | 0.67 |
| Previous stroke | 295 (11) | 237 (7) | 106 (4) | <0.001 |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 578 (22) | 564 (18) | 320 (13) | <0.001 |
| Peripheral arterial disease | 472 (18) | 463 (15) | 296 (12) | <0.001 |
| Chronic lung disease | 941 (35) | 901 (28) | 555 (23) | <0.001 |
| Chronic kidney disease | 655 (24) | 575 (18) | 292 (12) | <0.001 |
| Creatinine, mg/dL (Q1, Q3) | 1.0 (0.8, 1.3) | 1.0 (0.9, 1.2) | 1.0 (0.9, 1.2) | 0.07 |
| Creatinine clearance, mL/min/1.73 m2 (Q1, Q3) | 66.2 (50.5, 87.0) | 72.0 (55.4, 92.1) | 75.4 (60.7, 93.5) | <0.001 |
| Serum albumin, g/dL (Q1, Q3) | 3.8 (3.4, 4.1) | 4.0 (3.6, 4.3) | 4.1 (3.8, 4.3) | <0.001 |
| Hematocrit, % (Q1, Q3) | 37.1 (34.0, 40.7) | 39.2 (36.0, 42.0) | 40.4 (37.6, 43.0) | <0.001 |
| Procedural | ||||
| STS‐PROM, % (Q1, Q3) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.05) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.03) | <0.001 |
| Previous cardiac surgery | 942 (35) | 1046 (32.9) | 806 (33.3) | 0.19 |
| Urgent surgery | 1122 (42) | 768 (24) | 520 (21) | <0.001 |
| Surgery performed | 0.09 | |||
| Isolated CABG | 1501 (56) | 1718 (54) | 1323 (55) | |
| Isolated valve | 694 (26) | 883 (28) | 698 (29) | |
| CABG plus valve | 491 (18) | 578 (18) | 401 (17) | |
Proportions listed as N (%). BMI indicates body mass index; CABG, coronary artery bypass graft surgery; CAD, coronary artery disease (severe CAD defined as 3‐vessel disease); LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; Q1, quartile 1; Q3, quartile 3; STS‐PROM, Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.
Figure 2Adjusted Kaplan–Meier survival curves by tertiles of gait speed. Slow gait speed was associated with reduced survival.
Figure 3Cumulative incidence curves for hospitalization by tertiles of gait speed. Slow gait speed was associated with increased hospitalizations. CIF indicates cumulative incidence function.
Landmark Survival Analysis
| Unadjusted HR (95% CI) | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Time interval: <30 d | ||
| Per 0.1‐m/s decrease in continuous gait speed | 1.13 (1.01, 1.21) | 1.07 (1.00, 1.15) |
| Slow tertile | 2.45 (1.56, 3.83) | 1.57 (0.97, 2.53) |
| Middle tertile | 1.27 (0.84, 1.92) | 0.95 (0.62, 1.46) |
| Fast tertile | Referent | Referent |
| Time interval: 30 to 365 d | ||
| Per 0.1‐m/s decrease in continuous gait speed | 1.21 (1.16, 1.26) | 1.11 (1.06, 1.17) |
| Slow tertile | 3.90 (2.82, 5.40) | 2.28 (1.57, 3.32) |
| Middle tertile | 2.05 (1.47, 2.85) | 1.67 (1.17, 2.37) |
| Fast tertile | Referent | Referent |
| Time interval: >365 d | ||
| Per 0.1‐m/s decrease in continuous gait speed | 1.10 (1.06, 1.15) | 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) |
| Slow tertile | 1.98 (1.43, 2.74) | 1.41 (1.00, 1.99) |
| Middle tertile | 1.33 (0.96, 1.86) | 1.17 (0.83, 1.65) |
| Fast tertile | Referent | Referent |
CI indicates confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Figure 4Landmark analysis with survival function by tertiles of gait speed. The association between slow gait speed and mortality was most marked during the time interval from 30 to 365 days after surgery.