| Literature DB >> 29435343 |
David W Shimabukuro1, Christopher W Barton2, Mitchell D Feldman3, Samson J Mataraso4,5, Ritankar Das6.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Several methods have been developed to electronically monitor patients for severe sepsis, but few provide predictive capabilities to enable early intervention; furthermore, no severe sepsis prediction systems have been previously validated in a randomised study. We tested the use of a machine learning-based severe sepsis prediction system for reductions in average length of stay and in-hospital mortality rate.Entities:
Keywords: alerts; electronic health records; machine learning; patient monitoring; prediction; sepsis; severe sepsis
Year: 2017 PMID: 29435343 PMCID: PMC5687546 DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2017-000234
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMJ Open Respir Res ISSN: 2052-4439
Figure 1Patients assessed, enrolled, randomised and analysed in each arm of the randomised controlled trial.
Patient demographics and comorbidities in the experimental and control groups
| Control | Experimental | P values | |
| Male, count (%) | 31 (41) | 35 (52) | 0.09 |
| Age, mean (SD) | 59.3 (16.3) | 58.9 (16.8) | 0.49 |
| Race and ethnicity, count (%) | |||
| White | 36 (48) | 30 (45) | 0.35 |
| African American | 10 (13) | 6 (9.0) | 0.21 |
| Asian American | 13 (17) | 9 (13) | 0.26 |
| Hispanic | 13 (17) | 17 (25) | 0.12 |
| Other | 3 (4.4) | 5 (7.5) | 0.18 |
| Comorbidities, count (%) | |||
| Sepsis | 9 (12) | 16 (24) | 0.03 |
| Severe sepsis with septic shock | 7 (9.3) | 5 (7.5) | 0.34 |
| Cardiovascular | 17 (23) | 14 (21) | 0.39 |
| Renal | 10 (13) | 8 (12) | 0.40 |
| Liver | 4 (5.3) | 3 (4.5) | 0.41 |
| Organ transplant | 10 (13) | 11 (16) | 0.30 |
| HIV positive | 2 (2.7) | 2 (3.0) | 0.45 |
| Mental health disorder | 2 (2.7) | 1 (1.5) | 0.31 |
| Diabetes | 9 (12) | 9 (13) | 0.40 |
| COPD | 3 (4) | 1 (1.5) | 0.18 |
| Cancer | 26 (35) | 32 (48) | 0.06 |
| Alcohol abuse | 4 (5.3) | 1 (1.5) | 0.11 |
| Pneumonia | 7 (9.3) | 6 (9) | 0.47 |
Comorbidities are based on International Classification of Diseases 10 codes (see online supplemental table S2). P value for statistically significant differences in the distribution of demographics were calculated with a two-proportion z-test for all categorical variables, and a two-sample t-test for the continuous variable (age). Significance was set at 0.05.
COPD, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.
Figure 2Decrease in average hospital and ICU length of stay with the use of the machine learning algorithm. The error bars represent one standard error above and below the mean length of stay. ICU, intensive care unit.
Differences in hospital LOS, ICU LOS, and in-hospital mortality between the experimental and control groups
| Outcome | Control (n=75) | Experimental (n=67) | Amount of reduction | P value |
| Hospital LOS (days) | 13.0 (1.23) | 10.3 (0.912) | 2.30 days | 0.042 |
| ICU LOS (days) | 8.40 (0.881) | 6.31 (0.666) | 2.09 days | 0.030 |
| In-hospital mortality rate | 21.3% (4.76%) | 8.96% (3.51%) | 12.3% | 0.018 |
The mean and the standard error (in parentheses) for each outcome are noted in the table. All outcomes demonstrate statistically significant reductions when using the machine learning algorithm (p<0.05).
ICU, intensive care unit; LOS, length of stay.
Figure 3Reduction of in-hospital mortality rate when using the machine learning algorithm. The error bars represent one standard error above and below the average in-hospital mortality rate.
Comparison of AUROC, sensitivity and specificity for the MLA applied to severe sepsis detection and SIRS criteria, MEWS, the SOFA score and the qSOFA score on patient physiological data collected during the study
| MLA | SIRS | MEWS | SOFA | qSOFA | |
| AUROC | 0.952 | 0.681 | 0.524 | 0.756 | 0.518 |
| Sensitivity | 0.900 | 0.590 | 0.365 | 0.910 | 0.288 |
| Specificity | 0.900 | 0.764 | 0.667 | 0.181 | 0.750 |
A 95% CI for the MLA is also included in parentheses.
AUROC, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve; MEWS, Modified Early Warning Score; MLA, machine learning algorithm; SIRS, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome; qSOFA, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.