| Literature DB >> 28405027 |
Gytis Dudas1,2, Luiz Max Carvalho1, Trevor Bedford2, Andrew J Tatem3,4, Guy Baele5, Nuno R Faria6, Daniel J Park7, Jason T Ladner8, Armando Arias9,10, Danny Asogun11,12, Filip Bielejec5, Sarah L Caddy9, Matthew Cotten13,14, Jonathan D'Ambrozio8, Simon Dellicour5, Antonino Di Caro12,15, Joseph W Diclaro16, Sophie Duraffour12,17, Michael J Elmore18, Lawrence S Fakoli19, Ousmane Faye20, Merle L Gilbert8, Sahr M Gevao21, Stephen Gire7,22, Adrianne Gladden-Young7, Andreas Gnirke7, Augustine Goba23,24, Donald S Grant23,24, Bart L Haagmans14, Julian A Hiscox25,26, Umaru Jah27, Jeffrey R Kugelman8, Di Liu28, Jia Lu9, Christine M Malboeuf7, Suzanne Mate8, David A Matthews29, Christian B Matranga7, Luke W Meredith9,27, James Qu7, Joshua Quick30, Suzan D Pas14, My V T Phan13,14, Georgios Pollakis25, Chantal B Reusken14, Mariano Sanchez-Lockhart8,31, Stephen F Schaffner7, John S Schieffelin32, Rachel S Sealfon7,33,34, Etienne Simon-Loriere35,36, Saskia L Smits14, Kilian Stoecker12,37, Lucy Thorne9, Ekaete Alice Tobin11,12, Mohamed A Vandi23,24, Simon J Watson13, Kendra West7, Shannon Whitmer38, Michael R Wiley8,31, Sarah M Winnicki7,32, Shirlee Wohl7,22, Roman Wölfel12,37, Nathan L Yozwiak7,22, Kristian G Andersen39,40, Sylvia O Blyden41, Fatorma Bolay19, Miles W Carroll12,18,26,42, Bernice Dahn43, Boubacar Diallo44, Pierre Formenty45, Christophe Fraser46, George F Gao28,47, Robert F Garry48, Ian Goodfellow9,27, Stephan Günther12,17, Christian T Happi49,50, Edward C Holmes51, Brima Kargbo24, Sakoba Keïta52, Paul Kellam13,53, Marion P G Koopmans14, Jens H Kuhn54, Nicholas J Loman30, N'Faly Magassouba55, Dhamari Naidoo45, Stuart T Nichol38, Tolbert Nyenswah43, Gustavo Palacios8, Oliver G Pybus6, Pardis C Sabeti7,22, Amadou Sall20, Ute Ströher38, Isatta Wurie21, Marc A Suchard56,57,58, Philippe Lemey5, Andrew Rambaut1,59,60.
Abstract
The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.Entities:
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Year: 2017 PMID： 28405027 PMCID： PMC5712493 DOI： 10.1038/nature22040
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nature ISSN： 0028-0836 Impact factor: 49.962