Gui-Shuang Ying1, Deborah VanderVeen2, Ebenezer Daniel3, Graham E Quinn4, Agnieshka Baumritter4. 1. Department of Ophthalmology, Scheie Eye Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: gsying@mail.med.upenn.edu. 2. Department of Ophthalmology, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts. 3. Department of Ophthalmology, Scheie Eye Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 4. Division of Pediatric Ophthalmology, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To develop a risk score for predicting treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (TR-ROP) in the Telemedicine Approaches to Evaluating Acute-Phase Retinopathy of Prematurity (e-ROP) study. DESIGN: Second analyses of an observational cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Infants with birth weight (BW) <1251 g who had ≥1 imaging session by 34 weeks of postmenstrual age (PMA) and ≥1 subsequent retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) examination for determining TR-ROP by study-certified ophthalmologists. METHODS: Nonphysician trained readers evaluated wide-field retinal image sets for characteristics of ROP, pre-plus/plus disease, and retinal hemorrhage. Risk score points for predicting TR-ROP were derived from the regression coefficients of significant predictors in a multivariate logistic regression model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: TR-ROP. RESULTS: Eighty-five of 771 infants (11.0%) developed TR-ROP. In a multivariate model, significant predictors for TR-ROP were gestational age (GA) (odds ratio [OR], 5.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-18.9 for ≤25 vs. ≥28 weeks), need for respiratory support (OR, 7.0; 95% CI, 1.3-37.1 for high-frequency oscillatory ventilation vs. no respiratory support), slow weight gain (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.6 for weight gain ≤12 g/day vs. >15 g/day), and image findings at the first image session including number of quadrants with pre-plus (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.5-9.7 for 4 pre-plus quadrants vs. no pre-plus), stage and zone of ROP (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 2.1-11.8 for stage 1-2 zone I, OR, 5.9; 95% CI, 2.1-16.6 for stage 3 zone I vs. no ROP), and presence of blot hemorrhage (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.7). Image findings predicted TR-ROP better than GA (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.82 vs. 0.75, P = 0.03). The risk of TR-ROP steadily increased with higher risk score and predicted TR-ROP well (AUC = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.92). Risk score ≥3 points for predicting TR-ROP had a sensitivity of 98.8%, specificity of 40.1%, and positive and negative predictive values of 17.0% and 99.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Image characteristics at 34 PMA weeks or earlier independently predict TR-ROP. If externally validated in other infants, risk score, calculated from image findings, GA, weight gain, and respiratory support, enables early identification of infants in need of increased surveillance for TR-ROP.
PURPOSE: To develop a risk score for predicting treatment-requiring retinopathy of prematurity (TR-ROP) in the Telemedicine Approaches to Evaluating Acute-Phase Retinopathy of Prematurity (e-ROP) study. DESIGN: Second analyses of an observational cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Infants with birth weight (BW) <1251 g who had ≥1 imaging session by 34 weeks of postmenstrual age (PMA) and ≥1 subsequent retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) examination for determining TR-ROP by study-certified ophthalmologists. METHODS: Nonphysician trained readers evaluated wide-field retinal image sets for characteristics of ROP, pre-plus/plus disease, and retinal hemorrhage. Risk score points for predicting TR-ROP were derived from the regression coefficients of significant predictors in a multivariate logistic regression model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: TR-ROP. RESULTS: Eighty-five of 771 infants (11.0%) developed TR-ROP. In a multivariate model, significant predictors for TR-ROP were gestational age (GA) (odds ratio [OR], 5.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-18.9 for ≤25 vs. ≥28 weeks), need for respiratory support (OR, 7.0; 95% CI, 1.3-37.1 for high-frequency oscillatory ventilation vs. no respiratory support), slow weight gain (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.6 for weight gain ≤12 g/day vs. >15 g/day), and image findings at the first image session including number of quadrants with pre-plus (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.5-9.7 for 4 pre-plus quadrants vs. no pre-plus), stage and zone of ROP (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 2.1-11.8 for stage 1-2 zone I, OR, 5.9; 95% CI, 2.1-16.6 for stage 3 zone I vs. no ROP), and presence of blot hemorrhage (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.7). Image findings predicted TR-ROP better than GA (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.82 vs. 0.75, P = 0.03). The risk of TR-ROP steadily increased with higher risk score and predicted TR-ROP well (AUC = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.92). Risk score ≥3 points for predicting TR-ROP had a sensitivity of 98.8%, specificity of 40.1%, and positive and negative predictive values of 17.0% and 99.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Image characteristics at 34 PMA weeks or earlier independently predict TR-ROP. If externally validated in other infants, risk score, calculated from image findings, GA, weight gain, and respiratory support, enables early identification of infants in need of increased surveillance for TR-ROP.
Authors: Michael F Chiang; Lu Wang; Mihai Busuioc; Yunling E Du; Patrick Chan; Steven A Kane; Thomas C Lee; David J Weissgold; Audina M Berrocal; Osode Coki; John T Flynn; Justin Starren Journal: Arch Ophthalmol Date: 2007-11
Authors: Kelly C Wade; Maxwell Pistilli; Agnieshka Baumritter; Karen Karp; Alice Gong; Alex R Kemper; Gui-Shuang Ying; Graham Quinn Journal: J Pediatr Date: 2015-08-20 Impact factor: 4.406
Authors: Graham E Quinn; Gui-shuang Ying; Ebenezer Daniel; P Lloyd Hildebrand; Anna Ells; Agnieshka Baumritter; Alex R Kemper; Eleanor B Schron; Kelly Wade Journal: JAMA Ophthalmol Date: 2014-10 Impact factor: 7.389
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