| Literature DB >> 26868261 |
Andrea Springer1, Alexander Mellmann2, Claudia Fichtel3, Peter M Kappeler4,5.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Epidemiological models often use information on host social contacts to predict the potential impact of infectious diseases on host populations and the efficiency of control measures. It can be difficult, however, to determine whether social contacts are actually meaningful predictors of transmission. We investigated the role of host social structure in the transmission of Escherichia coli in a wild population of primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi). Using multilocus sequence typing (MLST), we compared genetic similarities between E. coli isolates from different individuals and groups to infer transmission pathways.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 26868261 PMCID: PMC4751723 DOI: 10.1186/s12898-016-0059-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Ecol ISSN: 1472-6785 Impact factor: 2.964
Fig. 195 % kernel home ranges of the eight adjacent Propithecus verreauxi groups in Kirindy Forest, Madagascar. Home ranges were calculated for biweekly intervals. Here, home ranges from the first half of May 2014 are shown
Fig. 2Minimum spanning tree based on the allelic profiles of the 24 MLST STs isolated. Node size is proportional to the frequency of sequence occurrence, numbers on connecting lines are the number of differing alleles in a pair-wise comparison, and colors indicate host social group
Fig. 3Networks including 10 social groups from 2 study areas based on a group membership and home range overlap and b E. coli ST sharing. Nodes are arranged by social groups, indicated by the different colors. In network a thickness of lines is proportional to the degree of home range overlap (within-group overlap = 100 %) while in network b lines indiscriminately indicate that two individuals share the same E. coli ST
Fig. 4Proportion of dyads sharing the same E. coli sequence type in each of three association classes: 1 Belonging to the same group (N = 67), 2 belonging to adjacent groups whose ranges overlap (N = 224) and 3 belonging to non-adjacent groups (N = 443)
Bayesian general linear mixed models testing the influence of several predictor variables on the probability of sharing the same E. coli MLST
| Model | Predictor | Posterior mean coefficient | 95 % Confidence interval | MCMCglmm | Odds ratioa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Intercept | −3.28 | −4.4, −2.24 |
| |
| (DIC: 402.95) | Same sex | 0.05 | −0.61, 0.67 | 0.864 | 1.05 |
| Same birth year | −0.5 | −2.05, 1.03 | 0.534 | 0.6 | |
| Same natal group | 0.06 | −1.31, 1.22 | 0.915 | 1.06 | |
| Same group | 1.14 | 0.02, 2.24 |
| 3.13 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.21 | −0.47, 0.94 | 0.552 | 1.23 | |
| Same sampling method | 0.03 | −0.86, 0.94 | 0.926 | 1.03 | |
| B | Intercept | −3.75 | −5.4, −2.21 |
| |
| (DIC: 243.32) | Same sex | −0.38 | −1.18, 0.46 | 0.366 | 0.68 |
| Same birth year | −2 | −4.99, 0.54 | 0.119 | 0.14 | |
| Same natal group | 1.12 | −0.86, 3 | 0.235 | 3.06 | |
| Space-use sharing (UDOI) | 0.13 | −0.32, 0.57 | 0.538 | 1.14 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.66 | −0.31, 1.63 | 0.177 | 1.93 | |
| Same sampling method | −0.2 | −1.35, 0.93 | 0.727 | 0.82 | |
| C | Intercept | −3.74 | −5.21, −2.27 |
| |
| (DIC: 243.17) | Same sex | −0.39 | −1.23, 0.47 | 0.347 | 0.68 |
| Same birth year | −2.04 | −4.87, 0.66 | 0.107 | 0.13 | |
| Same natal group | 0.95 | −1.03, 2.85 | 0.329 | 2.59 | |
| Intergroup encounter rate | 0.2 | −0.24, 0.64 | 0.346 | 1.22 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.64 | −0.33, 1.57 | 0.190 | 1.9 | |
| Same sampling method | −0.18 | −1.29, 0.98 | 0.769 | 0.84 |
Models B and C included only the 8 neighboring groups and excluded ties within the same social group. UDOI and intergroup encounter rate were z-transformed. Significant P values (<0.05) are printed in italics
aThe odds ratio is the multiplicative increase in the odds of E. coli strain sharing with each unit increase in the explanatory variable
Bayesian general linear mixed models testing the influence of several predictor variables on the probability of sharing the same E. coli MLST or a single locus variant
| Model | Predictor | Posterior mean coefficient | 95 % Confidence interval | MCMCglmm P value | Odds ratioa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Intercept | −2.64 | −3.63, −1.74 |
| |
| (DIC: 474.2) | Same sex | −0.27 | −0.83, 0.26 | 0.346 | 0.76 |
| Same birth year | −0.46 | −1.83, 0.81 | 0.502 | 0.63 | |
| Same natal group | 0.09 | −1.07, 1.26 | 0.879 | 1.09 | |
| Same group | 1.04 | 0.1, 2.16 |
| 2.83 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.05 | −0.59, 0.67 | 0.879 | 1.05 | |
| Same sampling method | 0.05 | −0.78, 0.8 | 0.88 | 1.05 | |
| B | Intercept | −2.87 | −4.12, −1.64 |
| |
| (DIC: 305.96) | Same sex | −0.34 | −1.04, 0.35 | 0.354 | 0.71 |
| Same birth year | −2.36 | −5.2, 0.15 |
| 0.09 | |
| Same natal group | 0.55 | −1.24, 2.38 | 0.565 | 1.73 | |
| Space-use sharing (UDOI) | 0.43 | 0.07, 0.78 |
| 1.54 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.22 | −0.65, 1.04 | 0.585 | 1.25 | |
| Same sampling method | −0.12 | −1.06, 0.9 | 0.831 | 0.89 | |
| C | Intercept | −2.91 | −4.22, −1.71 |
| |
| (DIC: 305.87) | Same sex | −0.31 | −1.05, 0.37 | 0.386 | 0.73 |
| Same birth year | −2.31 | −5.15, 0.18 |
| 0.1 | |
| Same natal group | 0.32 | −1.8, 2.16 | 0.741 | 1.38 | |
| Intergroup encounter rate | 0.46 | 0.12, 0.81 |
| 1.58 | |
| Same sampling month | 0.18 | −0.7, 1 | 0.665 | 1.2 | |
| Same sampling method | −0.05 | −1, 1.02 | 0.949 | 0.95 |
Models B and C included only the 8 neighboring groups and excluded ties within the same social group. UDOI and intergroup encounter rate were z-transformed. Significant P values (<0.05) are printed in italics
aThe odds ratio is the multiplicative increase in the odds of sharing the same or a closely related ST with each unit increase in the explanatory variable