BACKGROUND: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. METHODS: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. FINDINGS: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.
BACKGROUND: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. METHODS: We use existing data from Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. FINDINGS: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Near-term, practical interventions to address the ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to address the outbreak.
Authors: Marcelo F C Gomes; Ana Pastore Y Piontti; Luca Rossi; Dennis Chao; Ira Longini; M Elizabeth Halloran; Alessandro Vespignani Journal: PLoS Curr Date: 2014-09-02
Authors: Martin I Meltzer; Charisma Y Atkins; Scott Santibanez; Barbara Knust; Brett W Petersen; Elizabeth D Ervin; Stuart T Nichol; Inger K Damon; Michael L Washington Journal: MMWR Suppl Date: 2014-09-26
Authors: Sylvie Briand; Eric Bertherat; Paul Cox; Pierre Formenty; Marie-Paule Kieny; Joel K Myhre; Cathy Roth; Nahoko Shindo; Christopher Dye Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2014-08-20 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Bruce Aylward; Philippe Barboza; Luke Bawo; Eric Bertherat; Pepe Bilivogui; Isobel Blake; Rick Brennan; Sylvie Briand; Jethro Magwati Chakauya; Kennedy Chitala; Roland M Conteh; Anne Cori; Alice Croisier; Jean-Marie Dangou; Boubacar Diallo; Christl A Donnelly; Christopher Dye; Tim Eckmanns; Neil M Ferguson; Pierre Formenty; Caroline Fuhrer; Keiji Fukuda; Tini Garske; Alex Gasasira; Stephen Gbanyan; Peter Graaff; Emmanuel Heleze; Amara Jambai; Thibaut Jombart; Francis Kasolo; Albert Mbule Kadiobo; Sakoba Keita; Daniel Kertesz; Moussa Koné; Chris Lane; Jered Markoff; Moses Massaquoi; Harriet Mills; John Mike Mulba; Emmanuel Musa; Joel Myhre; Abdusalam Nasidi; Eric Nilles; Pierre Nouvellet; Deo Nshimirimana; Isabelle Nuttall; Tolbert Nyenswah; Olushayo Olu; Scott Pendergast; William Perea; Jonathan Polonsky; Steven Riley; Olivier Ronveaux; Keita Sakoba; Ravi Santhana Gopala Krishnan; Mikiko Senga; Faisal Shuaib; Maria D Van Kerkhove; Rui Vaz; Niluka Wijekoon Kannangarage; Zabulon Yoti Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2014-09-22 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Eric T Lofgren; M Elizabeth Halloran; Caitlin M Rivers; John M Drake; Travis C Porco; Bryan Lewis; Wan Yang; Alessandro Vespignani; Jeffrey Shaman; Joseph N S Eisenberg; Marisa C Eisenberg; Madhav Marathe; Samuel V Scarpino; Kathleen A Alexander; Rafael Meza; Matthew J Ferrari; James M Hyman; Lauren A Meyers; Stephen Eubank Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2014-12-10 Impact factor: 11.205