| Literature DB >> 25475705 |
Xiaoye Ma1, Muhammad Fareed K Suri, Haitao Chu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A recent paper proposed an intent-to-diagnose approach to handle non-evaluable index test results and discussed several alternative approaches, with an application to the meta-analysis of coronary CT angiography diagnostic accuracy studies. However, no simulation studies have been conducted to test the performance of the methods.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2014 PMID: 25475705 PMCID: PMC4280699 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-14-128
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Med Res Methodol ISSN: 1471-2288 Impact factor: 4.615
3 × 2 table accounting for prevalence and missing index test results
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| + | (1− | (1− | (1− |
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| − | (1− | (1− | (1− |
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| 1− | 1 |
Each cell reports the cell count and cell probability corresponding to a combination of index test and disease outcomes in study i. n denotes the cell counts in study i with index test outcome T =t and reference test outcome D =d, where t = 1,0,m stands for positive, negative and missing, and d = 1,0 denotes positive and negative. Se , Sp and π are sensitivity, specificity and prevalence of study i, respectively. ω denotes the missing probability of index test given disease status d in study i.
Simulation results under MAR assumption
| Model | TGLMM | Model 1 | Model2 | Model3 | Intent-to-diagnose | ||||||||||
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| Estimate | Bias% | meanSE | CP | Bias% | meanSE | CP | Bias% | meanSE | CP | Bias% | meanSE | CP | Bias% | meanSE | CP |
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| Se | −0.3 | 0.041 | 0.94 | −0.3 | 0.041 | 0.94 | 4.6 | 0.036 | 0.81 | −12.6 | 0.037 | 0.33 | −12.6 | 0.036 | 0.33 |
| Sp | −0.1 | 0.017 | 0.93 | −0.1 | 0.017 | 0.93 | −11.9 | 0.018 | 0 | 1.1 | 0.015 | 0.84 | −11.9 | 0.017 | 0 |
| Prev | 0.8 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.8 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.8 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.8 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.8 | 0.034 | 0.93 |
| PPV | −0.1 | 0.046 | 0.94 | −0.3 | 0.046 | 0.94 | −22.6 | 0.047 | 0.08 | −0.9 | 0.046 | 0.94 | −29 | 0.049 | 0.01 |
| NPV | −0.1 | 0.018 | 0.93 | −0.1 | 0.018 | 0.93 | −0.2 | 0.018 | 0.93 | −2.9 | 0.020 | 0.81 | −4.6 | 0.022 | 0.59 |
| LR+ | 1.6 | 1.188 | 0.92 | 1.6 | 1.189 | 0.93 | −49.2 | 0.307 | 0 | −0.5 | 1.160 | 0.92 | −57.6 | 0.271 | 0 |
| LR − | 0.9 | 0.044 | 0.94 | 0.9 | 0.044 | 0.94 | 1.5 | 0.044 | 0.94 | 27.9 | 0.039 | 0.33 | 46.8 | 0.045 | 0.04 |
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| Se | −0.1 | 0.041 | 0.94 | −0.1 | 0.041 | 0.94 | 4.7 | 0.036 | 0.80 | −12.3 | 0.036 | 0.34 | −12.3 0.036 | 0.34 | |
| Sp | −0.1 | 0.017 | 0.94 | −0.1 | 0.017 | 0.94 | −22.3 | 0.017 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.014 | 0.62 | −22.3 | 0.017 | 0 |
| Prev | 0.4 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 9.6 | 0.036 | 0.90 | 0.4 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.4 | 0.034 | 0.93 | 0.4 | 0.034 | 0.93 |
| PPV | −0.3 | 0.046 | 0.93 | 3.1 | 0.044 | 0.88 | −36 | 0.047 | 0 | 2.7 | 0.044 | 0.89 | −42.1 | 0.047 | 0 |
| NPV | −0.1 | 0.018 | 0.94 | −1.3 | 0.020 | 0.93 | −1.4 | 0.020 | 0.92 | −2.7 | 0.020 | 0.83 | −6.3 | 0.024 | 0.36 |
| LR+ | 1.4 | 1.195 | 0.94 | 1.4 | 1.194 | 0.94 | −65.1 | 0.159 | 0 | 12.3 | 1.312 | 0.95 | −70.8 | 0.147 | 0 |
| LR − | 0.6 | 0.044 | 0.93 | 0.6 | 0.044 | 0.93 | 14.7 | 0.050 | 0.85 | 26.1 | 0.038 | 0.39 | 66.1 | 0.051 | 0 |
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| Se | -0.1 | 0.023 | 0.93 | -0.1 | 0.023 | 0.93 | 8.7 | 0.018 | 0.12 | -21 | 0.020 | 0 | -21 | 0.019 | 0 |
| Sp | 0 | 0.009 | 0.93 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.93 | -10.6 | 0.009 | 0 | 1.1 | 0.008 | 0.74 | -10.6 | 0.009 | 0 |
| Prev | 0 | 0.018 | 0.93 | -8.4 | 0.017 | 0.72 | 0 | 0.017 | 0.91 | 0 | 0.017 | 0.91 | 0 | 0.0168 | 0.89 |
| PPV | -0.1 | 0.025 | 0.93 | -3.7 | 0.027 | 0.83 | -19.1 | 0.025 | 0 | -4 | 0.026 | 0.8 | -30.6 | 0.025 | 0 |
| NPV | 0 | 0.010 | 0.92 | 1.1 | 0.009 | 0.76 | 1.1 | 0.009 | 0.74 | -4.6 | 0.011 | 0.05 | -6.2 | 0.012 | 0 |
| LR+ | 0.3 | 0.655 | 0.93 | 0.3 | 0.653 | 0.93 | -44.1 | 0.196 | 0 | -11.7 | 0.570 | 0.62 | -59.3 | 0.154 | 0 |
| LR − | 0.3 | 0.025 | 0.93 | 0.3 | 0.025 | 0.93 | -10.8 | 0.022 | 0.62 | 47.4 | 0.021 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.024 | 0 |
Three scenarios are studied: equal or unequal missing probabilities for the diseased and non-diseased groups. Bias in percentage(Bias%), mean standard error (meanSE) and 95% confidence interval coverage probability (CP) are summarized for estimates of sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), prevalence (Prev), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR −) from different models. “TGLMM” stands for the extended TGLMM. Model 1 excludes non-evaluable subjects, Model 2 takes non-evaluable subjects as index test positives, Model 3 takes non-evaluable subjects as index test negatives and the intent-to-diagnose approach takes non-evaluable subjects as false positives and false negatives.
Median estimates and 95% CI (in brackets) for parameter estimates using different methods
| Method | Sensitivity | Specificity | Prevalence | PPV | ||||
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| TGLMM | 98.0 (96.7,99.3) | 87.5 (82.7,92.3) | 47.8 (37.9,57.7) | 87.8 (83.3,92.3) | ||||
| Model 1 | 98.0 (96.7,99.3) | 87.4 (82.5, 92.3) | 49.3 (38.9,59.7) | 88.4 (84,92.7) | ||||
| Model 2 | 98.1 (96.9,99.3) | 75.9 (69.3,82.5) | 47.8 (37.9,57.8) | 78.9 (71.9,85.9) | ||||
| Model 3 | 91.7 (88.1,95.4) | 89 (85.4,92.7) | 47.8 (37.9,57.7) | 88.4 (84.1,92.7) | ||||
| Intent-to-diagnose | 91.7 (88.1,95.3) | 76.2 (69.7,82.6) | 47.9 (37.9,57.9) | 78 (70.2,85.7) | ||||
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| TGLMM | 97.9 (96.4,99.5) | 7.8 (4.8,10.9) | 0.02 (0.01,0.04) | 0.99 (0.96,1) | ||||
| Model 1 | 97.8 (96.1,99.4) | 7.8 (4.8,10.9) | 0.02 (0.01,0.04) | 0.99 (0.96,1) | ||||
| Model 2 | 97.8 (96.2, 99.4) | 4.1 (2.9,5.2) | 0.02 (0.01,0.04) | 0.98 (0.97,1) | ||||
| Model 3 | 92.1 (88.4,95.8) | 8.4 (5.5,11.3) | 0.09 (0.05,0.14) | 0.96 (0.93,0.99) | ||||
| Intent-to-diagnose | 90.9 (86.4,95.5) | 3.8 (2.7,5.0) | 0.11 (0.06,0.16) | 0.93 (0.89,0.96) |
“TGLMM” stands for the extended TGLMM. Model 1 excludes non-evaluable subjects, Model 2 takes non-evaluable subjects as index test positives, Model 3 takes non-evaluable subjects as index test negatives and the intent-to-diagnose approach takes non-evaluable subjects as fasle positives and false negatives. Positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR −) and area under the curve (AUC) are summerized.
Figure 1Overall PPV and NPV plot based on the extended TGLMM (denoted by “TGLMM”) and the intent-to-diagnose approach. The solid and dashed lines are the overall estimates of PPV and NPV from the extended TGLMM and the intent-to-diagnose approach corresponding to different prevalences ranging from 0 to 1, respectively. The dotted lines are the 95% confidence intervals of PPV and NPV estimates from the extended TGLMM approach. The vertical dashed line is the overall prevalence estimates from the meta-analysis of coronary CT angiography studies.