Simple subgroup approximations to optimal treatment regimes from randomized clinical trial data.

We consider the use of randomized clinical trial (RCT) data to identify simple treatment regimes based on some subset of the covariate space, A. The optimal subset, A, is selected by maximizing the expected outcome under a treat-if-in-A regime, and is restricted to be a simple, as it is desirable that treatment decisions be made with only a limited amount of patient information required. We consider a two-stage procedure. In stage 1, non-parametric regression is used to estimate treatment effects for each subject, and in stage 2 these treatment effect estimates are used to systematically evaluate many subgroups of a simple, prespecified form to identify A. The proposed methods were found to perform favorably compared with two existing methods in simulations, and were applied to prehypertension data from an RCT. © Published by Oxford University Press 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.