BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. RESULTS: The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs.
BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. RESULTS: The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs.
Authors: Olaya García-Rodríguez; Carlos Blanco; Melanie M Wall; Shuai Wang; Chelsea J Jin; Kenneth S Kendler Journal: Drug Alcohol Depend Date: 2014-09-16 Impact factor: 4.492
Authors: Jason D Robinson; Francesco Versace; Jeffery M Engelmann; Yong Cui; Aurelija Slapin; Robert Oum; Paul M Cinciripini Journal: Exp Clin Psychopharmacol Date: 2014-12-01 Impact factor: 3.157
Authors: Andrea K Borondy Kitts; Andrea B McKee; Shawn M Regis; Christoph Wald; Sebastian Flacke; Brady J McKee Journal: J Thorac Dis Date: 2016-07 Impact factor: 2.895
Authors: Bethany C Bray; Rachel A Smith; Megan E Piper; Linda J Roberts; Timothy B Baker Journal: Nicotine Tob Res Date: 2016-07-13 Impact factor: 4.244