Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert1, Margaret L Brandeau2. 1. Stanford Health Policy, Centers for Health Policy and Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA (JDG-F) 2. Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA (MLB)
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Risk factors increase the incidence and severity of chronic disease. To examine future trends and develop policies addressing chronic diseases, it is important to capture the relationship between exposure and disease development, which is challenging given limited data. OBJECTIVE: To develop parsimonious risk factor models embeddable in chronic disease models, which are useful when longitudinal data are unavailable. DESIGN: The model structures encode relevant features of risk factors (e.g., time-varying, modifiable) and can be embedded in chronic disease models. Calibration captures time-varying exposures for the risk factor models using available cross-sectional data. We illustrate feasibility with the policy-relevant example of smoking in India. METHODS: The model is calibrated to the prevalence of male smoking in 12 Indian regions estimated from the 2009-2010 Indian Global Adult Tobacco Survey. Nelder-Mead searches (250,000 starting locations) identify distributions of starting, quitting, and restarting rates that minimize the difference between modeled and observed age-specific prevalence. We compare modeled life expectancies to estimates in the absence of time-varying risk exposures and consider gains from hypothetical smoking cessation programs delivered for 1 to 30 years. RESULTS: Calibration achieves concordance between modeled and observed outcomes. Probabilities of starting to smoke rise and fall with age, while quitting and restarting probabilities fall with age. Accounting for time-varying smoking exposures is important, as not doing so produces smaller estimates of life expectancy losses. Estimated impacts of smoking cessation programs delivered for different periods depend on the fact that people who have been induced to abstain from smoking longer are less likely to restart. CONCLUSIONS: The approach described is feasible for important risk factors for numerous chronic diseases. Incorporating exposure-change rates can improve modeled estimates of chronic disease outcomes and of the long-term effects of interventions targeting risk factors.
BACKGROUND: Risk factors increase the incidence and severity of chronic disease. To examine future trends and develop policies addressing chronic diseases, it is important to capture the relationship between exposure and disease development, which is challenging given limited data. OBJECTIVE: To develop parsimonious risk factor models embeddable in chronic disease models, which are useful when longitudinal data are unavailable. DESIGN: The model structures encode relevant features of risk factors (e.g., time-varying, modifiable) and can be embedded in chronic disease models. Calibration captures time-varying exposures for the risk factor models using available cross-sectional data. We illustrate feasibility with the policy-relevant example of smoking in India. METHODS: The model is calibrated to the prevalence of male smoking in 12 Indian regions estimated from the 2009-2010 Indian Global Adult Tobacco Survey. Nelder-Mead searches (250,000 starting locations) identify distributions of starting, quitting, and restarting rates that minimize the difference between modeled and observed age-specific prevalence. We compare modeled life expectancies to estimates in the absence of time-varying risk exposures and consider gains from hypothetical smoking cessation programs delivered for 1 to 30 years. RESULTS: Calibration achieves concordance between modeled and observed outcomes. Probabilities of starting to smoke rise and fall with age, while quitting and restarting probabilities fall with age. Accounting for time-varying smoking exposures is important, as not doing so produces smaller estimates of life expectancy losses. Estimated impacts of smoking cessation programs delivered for different periods depend on the fact that people who have been induced to abstain from smoking longer are less likely to restart. CONCLUSIONS: The approach described is feasible for important risk factors for numerous chronic diseases. Incorporating exposure-change rates can improve modeled estimates of chronic disease outcomes and of the long-term effects of interventions targeting risk factors.
Authors: Douglas C A Taylor; Vivek Pawar; Denise T Kruzikas; Kristen E Gilmore; Myrlene Sanon; Milton C Weinstein Journal: Pharmacoeconomics Date: 2012-02-01 Impact factor: 4.981
Authors: Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Abraham D Flaxman; Goodarz Danaei; Kenji Shibuya; Heather Adair-Rohani; Markus Amann; H Ross Anderson; Kathryn G Andrews; Martin Aryee; Charles Atkinson; Loraine J Bacchus; Adil N Bahalim; Kalpana Balakrishnan; John Balmes; Suzanne Barker-Collo; Amanda Baxter; Michelle L Bell; Jed D Blore; Fiona Blyth; Carissa Bonner; Guilherme Borges; Rupert Bourne; Michel Boussinesq; Michael Brauer; Peter Brooks; Nigel G Bruce; Bert Brunekreef; Claire Bryan-Hancock; Chiara Bucello; Rachelle Buchbinder; Fiona Bull; Richard T Burnett; Tim E Byers; Bianca Calabria; Jonathan Carapetis; Emily Carnahan; Zoe Chafe; Fiona Charlson; Honglei Chen; Jian Shen Chen; Andrew Tai-Ann Cheng; Jennifer Christine Child; Aaron Cohen; K Ellicott Colson; Benjamin C Cowie; Sarah Darby; Susan Darling; Adrian Davis; Louisa Degenhardt; Frank Dentener; Don C Des Jarlais; Karen Devries; Mukesh Dherani; Eric L Ding; E Ray Dorsey; Tim Driscoll; Karen Edmond; Suad Eltahir Ali; Rebecca E Engell; Patricia J Erwin; Saman Fahimi; Gail Falder; Farshad Farzadfar; Alize Ferrari; Mariel M Finucane; Seth Flaxman; Francis Gerry R Fowkes; Greg Freedman; Michael K Freeman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Santu Ghosh; Edward Giovannucci; Gerhard Gmel; Kathryn Graham; Rebecca Grainger; Bridget Grant; David Gunnell; Hialy R Gutierrez; Wayne Hall; Hans W Hoek; Anthony Hogan; H Dean Hosgood; Damian Hoy; Howard Hu; Bryan J Hubbell; Sally J Hutchings; Sydney E Ibeanusi; Gemma L Jacklyn; Rashmi Jasrasaria; Jost B Jonas; Haidong Kan; John A Kanis; Nicholas Kassebaum; Norito Kawakami; Young-Ho Khang; Shahab Khatibzadeh; Jon-Paul Khoo; Cindy Kok; Francine Laden; Ratilal Lalloo; Qing Lan; Tim Lathlean; Janet L Leasher; James Leigh; Yang Li; John Kent Lin; Steven E Lipshultz; Stephanie London; Rafael Lozano; Yuan Lu; Joelle Mak; Reza Malekzadeh; Leslie Mallinger; Wagner Marcenes; Lyn March; Robin Marks; Randall Martin; Paul McGale; John McGrath; Sumi Mehta; George A Mensah; Tony R Merriman; Renata Micha; Catherine Michaud; Vinod Mishra; Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah; Ali A Mokdad; Lidia Morawska; Dariush Mozaffarian; Tasha Murphy; Mohsen Naghavi; Bruce Neal; Paul K Nelson; Joan Miquel Nolla; Rosana Norman; Casey Olives; Saad B Omer; Jessica Orchard; Richard Osborne; Bart Ostro; Andrew Page; Kiran D Pandey; Charles D H Parry; Erin Passmore; Jayadeep Patra; Neil Pearce; Pamela M Pelizzari; Max Petzold; Michael R Phillips; Dan Pope; C Arden Pope; John Powles; Mayuree Rao; Homie Razavi; Eva A Rehfuess; Jürgen T Rehm; Beate Ritz; Frederick P Rivara; Thomas Roberts; Carolyn Robinson; Jose A Rodriguez-Portales; Isabelle Romieu; Robin Room; Lisa C Rosenfeld; Ananya Roy; Lesley Rushton; Joshua A Salomon; Uchechukwu Sampson; Lidia Sanchez-Riera; Ella Sanman; Amir Sapkota; Soraya Seedat; Peilin Shi; Kevin Shield; Rupak Shivakoti; Gitanjali M Singh; David A Sleet; Emma Smith; Kirk R Smith; Nicolas J C Stapelberg; Kyle Steenland; Heidi Stöckl; Lars Jacob Stovner; Kurt Straif; Lahn Straney; George D Thurston; Jimmy H Tran; Rita Van Dingenen; Aaron van Donkelaar; J Lennert Veerman; Lakshmi Vijayakumar; Robert Weintraub; Myrna M Weissman; Richard A White; Harvey Whiteford; Steven T Wiersma; James D Wilkinson; Hywel C Williams; Warwick Williams; Nicholas Wilson; Anthony D Woolf; Paul Yip; Jan M Zielinski; Alan D Lopez; Christopher J L Murray; Majid Ezzati; Mohammad A AlMazroa; Ziad A Memish Journal: Lancet Date: 2012-12-15 Impact factor: 79.321
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