Predicting rates of cell state change caused by stochastic fluctuations using a data-driven landscape model.

We develop a potential landscape approach to quantitatively describe experimental data from a fibroblast cell line that exhibits a wide range of GFP expression levels under the control of the promoter for tenascin-C. Time-lapse live-cell microscopy provides data about short-term fluctuations in promoter activity, and flow cytometry measurements provide data about the long-term kinetics, because isolated subpopulations of cells relax from a relatively narrow distribution of GFP expression back to the original broad distribution of responses. The landscape is obtained from the steady state distribution of GFP expression and connected to a potential-like function using a stochastic differential equation description (Langevin/Fokker-Planck). The range of cell states is constrained by a force that is proportional to the gradient of the potential, and biochemical noise causes movement of cells within the landscape. Analyzing the mean square displacement of GFP intensity changes in live cells indicates that these fluctuations are described by a single diffusion constant in log GFP space. This finding allows application of the Kramers' model to calculate rates of switching between two attractor states and enables an accurate simulation of the dynamics of relaxation back to the steady state with no adjustable parameters. With this approach, it is possible to use the steady state distribution of phenotypes and a quantitative description of the short-term fluctuations in individual cells to accurately predict the rates at which different phenotypes will arise from an isolated subpopulation of cells.