| Literature DB >> 22832900 |
D P Wall1, J Kosmicki, T F Deluca, E Harstad, V A Fusaro.
Abstract
The Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS) is one of the most widely used instruments for behavioral evaluation of autism spectrum disorders. It is composed of four modules, each tailored for a specific group of individuals based on their language and developmental level. On average, a module takes between 30 and 60 min to deliver. We used a series of machine-learning algorithms to study the complete set of scores from Module 1 of the ADOS available at the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE) for 612 individuals with a classification of autism and 15 non-spectrum individuals from both AGRE and the Boston Autism Consortium (AC). Our analysis indicated that 8 of the 29 items contained in Module 1 of the ADOS were sufficient to classify autism with 100% accuracy. We further validated the accuracy of this eight-item classifier against complete sets of scores from two independent sources, a collection of 110 individuals with autism from AC and a collection of 336 individuals with autism from the Simons Foundation. In both cases, our classifier performed with nearly 100% sensitivity, correctly classifying all but two of the individuals from these two resources with a diagnosis of autism, and with 94% specificity on a collection of observed and simulated non-spectrum controls. The classifier contained several elements found in the ADOS algorithm, demonstrating high test validity, and also resulted in a quantitative score that measures classification confidence and extremeness of the phenotype. With incidence rates rising, the ability to classify autism effectively and quickly requires careful design of assessment and diagnostic tools. Given the brevity, accuracy and quantitative nature of the classifier, results from this study may prove valuable in the development of mobile tools for preliminary evaluation and clinical prioritization-in particular those focused on assessment of short home videos of children--that speed the pace of initial evaluation and broaden the reach to a significantly larger percentage of the population at risk.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22832900 PMCID: PMC3337074 DOI: 10.1038/tp.2012.10
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Transl Psychiatry ISSN: 2158-3188 Impact factor: 6.222
Summary of the data used for both construction and validation of the autism diagnostic classifier
| Sample size | 612 | 11 | 110 | 4 | 336 | 0 |
| Q1 | 4.7375 | 2.99 | 3.6875 | 2.771 | 5.167 | 0 |
| Median | 6.64 | 4.57 | 5.625 | 3.083 | 6.75 | 0 |
| Q3 | 8.86 | 6.93 | 8.4167 | 6.729 | 10 | 0 |
| IQR | 4.1225 | 3.94 | 4.7292 | 3.958 | 4.833 | 0 |
Abbreviations: AC, autism consortium; AGRE, autism screening questionnaire; Simons, Simons Foundation.
We acquired complete sets of answers to the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS) Module 1 evaluation from the AGRE, the Boston AC and the Simons Foundation. The table lists the total numbers of individuals classified as having autism and individuals classified as non-spectrum represented in each of the three data sets as well as a breakdown of age using the interquartile range.
The 16 machine-learning algorithms used for constructing classifiers from the ADOS Module 1 data
| ADTree | An ADTree combines decision trees, voted decision trees and voted decision stumps. The algorithm is based on boosting, which yields accurate predictions by combining a series of ‘weak' learners that together can classify accurately.[ | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| BFTree | The top node of the decision tree splits the data, so the maximum reduction of impurity (misclassified data) is achieved. This is called the ‘best' node and it is expanded upon first (unlike in a C4.5 tree, for example, where nodes are expanded upon according to the depth first).[ | 0.600 | 0.993 | 0.979 |
| Decision Stump | A Decision Stump classifier is a single-level decision tree with one node. Terminal nodes extend directly off of this node, thus classification is made based on a single attribute.[ | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
| FT | Functional trees are classification trees that can use multiple linear regression or multiple logistic regression at decision nodes and linear models at leaf nodes.[ | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| J48 | J48 is a Java implementation of the C4.5 algorithm; it generates either pruned or an unpruned or C4.5 decision tree. C4.5 build trees from training data using the concept of information entropy.[ | 0.200 | 0.998 | 0.994 |
| J48graft | This class generates a grafted C4.5 decision tree that can either be pruned or unpruned. Grafting adds nodes to already created decision trees to improve accuracy.[ | 0.333 | 1.000 | 0.992 |
| Jrip | This classifier is an optimized version of the Incremental Reduced Error Pruning, implementing a propositional learner RIPPER (Repeated Incremental Pruning to Produce Error Reduction).[ | 0.333 | 0.995 | 0.987 |
| LADTree | LADTree produces a multi-class ADTree. It has the capability to have more than two class inputs. It performs additive logistic regression using the LogitBoost strategy.[ | 0.133 | 0.997 | 0.994 |
| LMT | Logistic model trees combine decision trees with logistic regression models. LMTs are generated by creating a logistic model at the root using LogitBoost. The tree is extended at child nodes by using LogitBoost. Nodes are split until no additional split can be found.[ | 0.133 | 1.000 | 0.997 |
| Nnge | Nearest neighbor algorithms define a distance function to separate classes. By using generalized exemplars, it reduces the role of the distance function (relying too heavily on the distance function can produce inaccurate results) by grouping classes together.[ | 0.200 | 0.998 | 0.994 |
| OneR | This algorithm finds association rules. It finds the one attribute that classifies instances so as to reduce prediction errors.[ | 0.400 | 0.993 | 0.984 |
| PART | A set of rules is generated using the ‘divide-and-conquer' strategy. From here, all instances in the training data that are covered by this rule get removed and this process is repeated until no instances remain.[ | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.995 |
| Random Tree | The Random Tree classifier draws trees at random from a set of possible trees with | 0.400 | 0.987 | 0.978 |
| REPTree | An REPTree is a fast decision tree learner that constructs a decision/regression tree using information gain for splitting, and prunes the tree using reduced-error pruning with backfitting.[ | 0.467 | 0.998 | 0.987 |
| Ridor | This classifier is an implementation of a Ripple-Down Rule Learner. An example of this is when the classifier picks a default rule (based on the least weighted error) and creates exception cases stemming from this one.[ | 0.267 | 0.997 | 0.990 |
| Simple Cart | Classification and regression trees are used to construct prediction models for data. They are made by partitioning the data and fitting models to each partition.[ | 0.667 | 0.992 | 0.976 |
Abbreviations: ADTree, alternating decision tree; FPR, false positive rate; FT, functional tree; TPR, true positive rate.
The FPR and TPR are provided along with the overall accuracy. The ADTree and the FT, both performed with 100% accuracy. The ADTree contained fewer items (eight in ADTree compared with nine in the FT) and was selected for further analysis in our study.
Figure 1Receiver operating characteristic curves mapping sensitivity versus specificity for the 16 different machine-learning algorithms tested on the ADOS Module 1 training data. We identified the best classifiers as those closest to the point (1, 0) on the graph indicating perfect sensitivity (true positive rate) and one specificity (false positive rate). The best performing models were the ADTree and functional tree (FT). The ADTree was chosen over the FT because it used less items. See Table 2 for a summary of the 16 machine-learning algorithms used in our analysis.
The eight items found in the ADTree classifier
| A2* | Frequency of vocalization directed to others | Communication |
| B1* | Unusual eye contact | Social interaction |
| B2 | Responsive social smile | Social interaction |
| B5* | Shared enjoyment in interaction | Social interaction |
| B9* | Showing | Social interaction |
| B10* | Spontaneous initiation of joint attention | Social interaction |
| C1 | Functional play with objects | Play |
| C2 | Imagination/creativity | Play |
Abbreviation: ADTree, alternating decision tree.
Listed are the question code used by the Autism Genetic Research Exchange (AGRE), a brief description of the question, and the domain to which the question belongs. Five of the items in the ADTree classifier (*) are found on the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS) revised algorithm (Gotham et al[11]), an algorithm containing 14 total items and demonstrating high diagnostic validity.
Figure 2Diagrammatic representation of the classifier generated by the ADTree algorithm. The ADTree was found to perform best out of the 16 different machine-learning approaches (Figure 1, Table 2). The resulting tree enables one to follow each path originating from the top node and increment (+) or decrement (−) prediction variables accordingly. In our case, variables with a negative sign yielded the classification of autism, whereas those with a positive sign resulted in a classification of non-spectrum. The magnitude of the score corresponded to confidence in the class prediction.
Figure 3The ADTree scores of individuals in the AGRE, Boston AC and SSC data sets plotted against age in years (range from 13 months to 49 years). A majority of the ADTree scores were large, indicating confidence in the class predictions, and uncorrelated with the ages of the individuals.
The 10 activities used in an observation of a subject to answer the 29 items found on the ADOS Module 1
| Free play | Yes |
| Response to name | No |
| Response to joint attention | No |
| Bubble play | Yes |
| Anticipation of a routine with objects | Yes |
| Responsive social smile | Yes |
| Anticipation of a social routine | Yes |
| Functional and symbolic imitation | Yes |
| Birthday party | Yes |
| Snack | Yes |
Abbreviation: ADOS, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic.
Our work resulted in an accurate classifier containing only eight items from the full test. In all, 2 of the 10 activities would not be needed to use this classifier in an evaluation of a subject.