Prediction of trypsin/molecular fragment binding affinities by free energy decomposition and empirical scores.

Two families of binding affinity estimation methodologies are described which were utilized in the SAMPL3 trypsin/fragment binding affinity challenge. The first is a free energy decomposition scheme based on a thermodynamic cycle, which included separate contributions from enthalpy and entropy of binding as well as a solvent contribution. Enthalpic contributions were estimated with PM6-DH2 semiempirical quantum mechanical interaction energies, which were modified with a statistical error correction procedure. Entropic contributions were estimated with the rigid-rotor harmonic approximation, and solvent contributions to the free energy were estimated with several different methods. The second general methodology is the empirical score LISA, which contains several physics-based terms trained with the large PDBBind database of protein/ligand complexes. Here we also introduce LISA+, an updated version of LISA which, prior to scoring, classifies systems into one of four classes based on a ligand's hydrophobicity and molecular weight. Each version of the two methodologies (a total of 11 methods) was trained against a compiled set of known trypsin binders available in the Protein Data Bank to yield scaling parameters for linear regression models. Both raw and scaled scores were submitted to SAMPL3. Variants of LISA showed relatively low absolute errors but also low correlation with experiment, while the free energy decomposition methods had modest success when scaling factors were included. Nonetheless, re-scaled LISA yielded the best predictions in the challenge in terms of RMS error, and six of these models placed in the top ten best predictions by RMS error. This work highlights some of the difficulties of predicting binding affinities of small molecular fragments to protein receptors as well as the benefit of using training data.