Statistical shape modeling describes variation in tibia and femur surface geometry between Control and Incidence groups from the osteoarthritis initiative database.

We hypothesize that variability in knee subchondral bone surface geometry will differentiate between patients at risk and those not at risk for developing osteoarthritis (OA) and suggest that statistical shape modeling (SSM) methods form the basis for developing a diagnostic tool for predicting the onset of OA. Using a subset of clinical knee MRI data from the osteoarthritis initiative (OAI), the objectives of this study were to (1) utilize SSM to compactly and efficiently describe variability in knee subchondral bone surface geometry and (2) determine the efficacy of SSM and rigid body transformations to distinguish between patients who are not expected to develop osteoarthritis (i.e. Control group) and those with clinical risk factors for OA (i.e. Incidence group). Quantitative differences in femur and tibia surface geometry were demonstrated between groups, although differences in knee joint alignment measures were not statistically significant, suggesting that variability in individual bone geometry may play a greater role in determining joint space geometry and mechanics. SSM provides a means of explicitly describing complete articular surface geometry and allows the complex spatial variation in joint surface geometry and joint congruence between healthy subjects and those with clinical risk of developing or existing signs of OA to be statistically demonstrated. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.