| Literature DB >> 19116046 |
Linda P B Verhoef1, Annelies Kroneman, Yvonne van Duynhoven, Hendriek Boshuizen, Wilfrid van Pelt, Marion Koopmans.
Abstract
Detection of pathogens in the food chain is limited mainly to bacteria, and the globalization of the food industry enables international viral foodborne outbreaks to occur. Outbreaks from 2002 through 2006 recorded in a European norovirus surveillance database were investigated for virologic and epidemiologic indicators of food relatedness. The resulting validated multivariate logistic regression model comparing foodborne (n = 224) and person-to-person (n = 654) outbreaks was used to create a practical web-based tool that can be limited to epidemiologic parameters for nongenotyping countries. Non-genogroup-II.4 outbreaks, higher numbers of cases, and outbreaks in restaurants or households characterized (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.86) foodborne outbreaks and reduced the percentage of outbreaks requiring source-tracing to 31%. The selection tool enabled prospectively focused follow-up. Use of this tool is likely to improve data quality and strain typing in current surveillance systems, which is necessary for identification of potential international foodborne outbreaks.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2009 PMID: 19116046 PMCID: PMC2660698 DOI: 10.3201/eid1501.080673
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Emerg Infect Dis ISSN: 1080-6040 Impact factor: 6.883
Consensus list of parameters for optimal reporting of foodborne (viral) outbreaks as defined by expert opinion, and completeness for data collected in the FBVE surveillance database*
| Parameters for outbreak data | Variable | Foodborne outbreak data (% missing ), n = 224 | Other mode outbreak data (% missing), n = 654 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EFSA (confirmed/probable)† | |||
| Type of outbreak: general or household | Yes | 224 (0) | 654 (0) |
| No. human cases‡ | Yes | 217 (3) | 651 (0) |
| No. hospitalizations‡ | Yes | 78 (65) | 295 (55) |
| No. deaths‡ | Yes | 66 (70) | 195 (70) |
| Foodstuff implicated |
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| NA‡ |
| Causative agent§ | Yes | 224 (0) | 654 (0) |
| Setting | Yes | 224 (0) | 654 (0) |
| Contributory factors | Yes | 202 (10) | 482 (26) |
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| No | NA | NA |
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| Yes |
| NA |
| EFSA (thoroughly investigated)† | |||
| Reason reporting | No | NA | NA |
| Laboratory results food | Yes |
| NA |
| Place food produced | No | NA | NA |
| Place food consumed/purchased | Descriptive |
| NA |
| Age-affected persons | Categorical | 11 (95) | 73 (89) |
| Gender-affected persons | Yes | 27 (88) | 106 (84) |
| Additional information on agent | Yes | 224 (0) | 653 (0) |
| Additional parameters in literature | |||
| Attack rate† | Yes | 121 (46) | 226 (59) |
| Seasonality | Yes | 149 (33) | 484 (26) |
| Duration of the outbreak† | Yes | 90 (60) | 265 (59) |
| Epidemic curve/point source | No | 202 (10) | 496 (24) |
| Sequence or variant | Yes | 224 (0) | 654 (0) |
| Link with other outbreaks | Yes | 22 (90) | 15 (98) |
| Additional parameters VWA experts | |||
| Incubation period | Yes | 51 (77) | 65 (90) |
| Illness in food handlers and their family | Partially |
| NA |
| Presence of ill persons in setting | No | NA | NA |
*FBVE, Foodborne Viruses in Europe network; EFSA, European Food Safety Authority; NA, not applicable; VWA, Food and Consumer Products Safety Authority. Parameters listed in italics could not be included in univariate analyses. †Not restricted to viral. ‡ A systematic retrospective check of Dutch data showed that variables for no. cases involved were reported to the national institute by regional health services when the outbreak was ongoing, and that these numbers were not updated when the outbreak had finished. The same situation was reported for other countries during the telephone survey. §Inclusion criterion.
Figure 1Outbreaks reported to the Foodborne Viruses in Europe network from January 2002 through December 2006, by suspected or confirmed cause and completeness of year and month of the outbreak, sequence information, and mode of transmission. Other causative agents include rotavirus, hepatitis A, and various bacteria.
Factors (8 of 17) of borderline significance during univariate logistic regression in a random selection of 50% of the dataset for comparison of foodborne outbreaks (group 1) and outbreaks from other modes of transmission (group 2)*
| Indicator | Category/measure | Group 1 (n = 112) | Group 2 (n = 327) | Univariate, OR (95% CI) | Univariate adjusted for country, OR (95% CI) | Multivariate adjusted for country, OR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General | 105 | 325 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| Household | 7 | 2 | 10.8 (2.2–52.9) | 10.1 (1.6–64.3) | 0.1 (0.0–1.0) | |
| 2 | No. cases† | – | – | 1.1 (1.0–1.1) | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 1.1 (1.0–1.2) |
| 7 | Residence | 7 | 2 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| Restaurant‡ | 36 | 1 | 10.3 (0.8–129.4) | 13.2 (0.7–234.0) | >999† | |
| Healthcare institute | 27 | 267 | 0.0 (0.0–0.1) | 0.0 (0.0–0.1) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | |
| Daycare | 2 | 15 | 0.0 (0.0–0.3) | 0.1 (0.0–0.9) | 0.0 (0.0–0.1) | |
| Hotel/guest house | 9 | 12 | 0.2 (0.0–1.3) | 0.1 (0.0–1.3) | 0.0 (0.0–0.1) | |
| School | 11 | 9 | 0.3 (0.1–2.1) | 0.3 (0.0–2.7) | 0.0 (0.0–0.2) | |
| Other | 20 | 21 | 0.3 (0.1–1.5) | 0.3 (0.0–2.1) | 0.0 (0.0–0.2) | |
| 17 | Non-GGII.4 | 55 | 48 | Reference | Reference | Reference |
| Genogroup II.4 | 57 | 278 | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 0.2 (0.1–0.4) | 0.4 (0.2–1.0) | |
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*Significant factors were included in multivariate analyses to construct the final model. –, entered as a continuous variable. Parameters in italics could not be included in multivariate analysis because of missing values. OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; GG, genogroup. †A systematic retrospective check of Netherlands data showed that variables for no. of cases involved were reported to the national institute by regional health services when the outbreak was ongoing, and that these numbers were not updated when the outbreak had finished. The same situation was reported for other countries during the telephone survey. ‡The parameter restaurant was set to 0 because the variable was a linear combination of other variables as follows: Restaurant = intercept – household – health care – day care – hotel – school – other >999.
Figure 2Receiving operator characteristics curves for distinction of foodborne outbreaks from person-to-person outbreaks in the training sample (upper graph, 435/439 records used) and in the validation sample (lower graph, 432/439 records used). The area under curve in the validation sample was 0.90, indicating good performance of the model.