| Literature DB >> 17659078 |
Martin Prince1, Cleusa P Ferri, Daisy Acosta, Emiliano Albanese, Raul Arizaga, Michael Dewey, Svetlana I Gavrilova, Mariella Guerra, Yueqin Huang, K S Jacob, E S Krishnamoorthy, Paul McKeigue, Juan Llibre Rodriguez, Aquiles Salas, Ana Luisa Sosa, Renata M M Sousa, Robert Stewart, Richard Uwakwe.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Latin America, China and India are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic ageing with an increasing number of people with dementia. The 10/66 Dementia Research Group's title refers to the 66% of people with dementia that live in developing countries and the less than one tenth of population-based research carried out in those settings. This paper describes the protocols for the 10/66 population-based and intervention studies that aim to redress this imbalance. METHODS/Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2007 PMID: 17659078 PMCID: PMC1965476 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-7-165
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Public Health ISSN: 1471-2458 Impact factor: 3.295
Figure 1Global demographic ageing, 2000–2050 (UNDIESA).
Figure 2Demographic transition, UK and China.
Overview of 10/66 population based surveys
| Country | Catchment area | Target sample | Interviews completed | Response % | DNA | Fasting blood sample | Start/finish |
| Cuba | Havana (urban) | 2100 | 2100 | 94% | Yes | Yes | 6/03 12/05 |
| Matanzas (urban) | 900 | 900 | |||||
| Brazil | Sao Paulo (urban) | 2000 | 2000 | 93% | Yes | Yes | 5/03 7/05 |
| Dominican Rep. | Santo Domingo (urban) | 2000 | 2000 | 95% | Blood (EDTA at -20 C) | Yes | 11/03 12/05 |
| Venezuela | Caracas (urban) | 2000 | 2026 | 79.6% | Yes | Yes | 9/04 6/06 |
| Mexico | Mexico city (urban) | 1000 | 1000 | 85.1% | Blotting paper | Yes | 1/06 10/06 |
| Morelos/Higalgo (rural) | 1500 | 1000 | |||||
| Peru | Lima (urban) | 1500 | 1431 | 60% | Blotting paper | Yes | 4/05 6/06 |
| Canete (rural) | 500 | 569 | |||||
| Argentina | Buenos Aires (urban) | 1200 | 0 | incomplete | Yes | Yes | 4/05 6/06 |
| Canuelas (rural) | 800 | 800 | |||||
| China | Xicheng (Beijing, urban) | 1000 | 1000 | 83% | No | No | 3/04 9/05 |
| Daxin (rural) | 1000 | 1001 | |||||
| India | Chennai (urban) | 1000 | 1005 | 72% | No | No | 2/04 12/05 |
| India | Vellore (rural) | 1000 | 1000 | 98% | No | No | 3/04 8/05 |
| Nigeria ( | Anambra (rural) | 1000 | 500 | incomplete | No | No | |
| 9 countries | 13 catchment areas | 20,000 | 17725 |
Incident dementia, stroke and all-cause mortality in centres participating in the follow-up study
| Country | Baseline sample | Dementia at baseline | Free of dementia at baseline | Available for FU interview1 | Person years | Deaths | Incident dementia2 | Incident strokes |
| Cuba | 3000 | 330 | 2670 | 1994 | 6730 | 509 | 55 | 45 |
| DR | 2000 | 220 | 1780 | 1329 | 4488 | 339 | 37 | 30 |
| Venezuela | 2000 | 200 | 1800 | 1345 | 4490 | 339 | 37 | 30 |
| Mexico | 2000 | 200 | 1800 | 1381 | 2906 | 295 | 30 | 25 |
| Peru | 2000 | 200 | 1800 | 1381 | 2906 | 295 | 30 | 25 |
| Argentina | 2000 | 200 | 1800 | 1381 | 2906 | 295 | 30 | 25 |
| Sub-total3 | 13000 | 1350 | 11650 | 8811 | 24426 | 2072 | 219 | 180 |
| China | 2162 | 137 | 2025 | 1513 | 5105 | 366 | 42 | 30 |
| TOTAL | 15000 | 1300 | 11700 | 10324 | 29531 | 2438 | 261 | 210 |
1. assuming 6% annual mortality (GBD 2002 AMRO B mortality data, 65 and over), and 15% non-response/non-traceability.
2. annual incidence rate of 0.0092 for all those aged 65 and over, from consensus prevalence estimates for Latin America [19], using DISMOD to derive incidence from prevalence and survival.
3. These centres included fasting blood samples, which are lacking in China
Power to detect given effect sizes (HRs) for associations between exposures with a prevalence of 10% and 20%, for the outcomes of dementia and stroke.
| Minimum Hazard Ratio to be detected | Power for detecting association with 10% exposure prevalence | Power for detecting an association with 20% exposure prevalence | ||
| Outcome1,2 | Dementia | Stroke | Dementia | Stroke |
| 2.5 | 100% | 99.8% | 100% | 100% |
| 2.0 | 96.4% | 90.9% | 99.8% | 98.8% |
| 1.8 | 86.0% | 75.8% | 97.5% | 92.8% |
| 1.5 | 48.8% | 39.3% | 71.0% | 59.5% |
1. The power to detect associations with all-cause mortality approximates to 100% in each of these cells
2. As approximately 70% of dementia cases are categorised as AD, the power of detecting given associations with this outcome is very similar to that for stroke.
Minimum detectable effect size (OR) for matched incident case-control comparison
| 80% | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 90% | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 |