Modelling return-to-work intervention strategies: a method to help target interventions.

The aim of this study is twofold: 1) to investigate the relationship between the probability of receiving an intervention by the occupational physician and the probability of return-to-work (RTW) of sick workers; 2) to explore the use of simultaneous modelling of the intervention and RTW process. Analyses are performed on population level using data from a major longitudinal survey on work incapacity and RTW in the Netherlands. A bivariate probit model is used to estimate the correlation between the probability of intervention and the probability of RTW A bivariate hazard model is applied to explore the joint distribution of the waiting times for the intervention and RTW The results of this study show that the probability of receiving an intervention from the occupational physician is not correlated with the probability of RTW Neither is the timing of both events correlated. The analyses do not indicate that the intervention by the occupational physician provides incentives for sick workers to RTW quicker.