Genetic differences at four DNA typing loci in Finnish, Italian, and mixed Caucasian populations.

Highly polymorphic segments of the human genome containing variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTRs) have been widely used to establish DNA profiles of individuals for use in forensics. Methods of estimating the probability of occurrence of matching DNA profiles between two randomly selected individuals have been subject to extensive debate regarding the possibility of significant substructure occurring within the major races. We have sampled two Caucasian subpopulations, Finns and Italians, at four commonly used VNTR loci to determine the extent to which the subgroups differ from each other and from a mixed Caucasian database. The data were also analyzed for the occurrence of linkage disequilibrium among the loci. The allele frequency distributions of some loci were found to differ significantly among the subpopulations in a manner consistent with population substructure. Major differences were also found in the probability of occurrence of matching DNA profiles between two individuals chosen at random from the same subpopulation. With respect to the Finnish and Italian subpopulations, the conventional product rule for estimating the probability of a multilocus VNTR match using a mixed Caucasian database consistently yields estimates that are artificially small. Systematic errors of this type were not found using the interim ceiling principle recently advocated in the National Research Council's report [National Research Council (1992) DNA Technology in Forensic Science (Natl. Acad. Sci., Washington)]. The interim ceiling principle is based on currently available racial or ethnic databases and sets an arbitrary lower limit on each VNTR allele frequency. In the future the ceiling frequencies are expected to be established from more adequate data acquired for relevant VNTR loci from multiple subpopulations.