| Literature DB >> 12095433 |
Geoffrey T Fosgate1, Tim E Carpenter, Bruno B Chomel, James T Case, Emilio E DeBess, Kevin F Reilly.
Abstract
Infection with Brucella spp. continues to pose a human health risk in California despite great strides in eradicating the disease from domestic animals. Clustering of human cases in time and space has important public health implications for understanding risk factors and sources of infection. Temporal-spatial clustering of human brucellosis in California for the 20-year period 1973-1992 was evaluated by the Ederer-Myers-Mantel, Moran's I, and population-adjusted Moran's I procedures. Cases were clustered in concentrated agricultural regions in the first 5-year interval (1973-1977). Time-space clustering of human brucellosis cases in California late in the 20-year study period may reflect the distribution of Hispanic populations. Public health programs in California should focus on educating Hispanic populations about the risk of consuming dairy products, such as soft cheeses, made from unpasteurized milk.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2002 PMID: 12095433 PMCID: PMC2730319 DOI: 10.3201/eid0807.010351
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Emerg Infect Dis ISSN: 1080-6040 Impact factor: 6.883
Figure 1Number of reported cases of human brucellosis in Hispanic and non-Hispanic California residents, by year, 1973–1992.
Figure 2Distribution of reported cases of human brucellosis in California residents, 1973–1992.
Figure 3Reported cases of human brucellosis in Hispanic and non-Hispanic California residents, by year, 1993–2001.
Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) procedure for time-space clustering of reported human brucellosis cases, California, 1973–1992
| Population | No. of cases | Chi squarea | p valueb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanic | 305 | 3.800 | 0.03 |
| Non-Hispanic | 111 | 6.078 | 0.007 |
| Total | 416 | 8.100 | 0.002 |
aEMM test statistic follows an approximate chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom. bp-value based on a one-sided test (half of usual chi-square p-value).
Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) procedure for time-space clustering of reported human brucellosis cases, California, 1973–1992
| Years | Population | County | California areaa | Chi square | p valueb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973–1977 | Hispanic | Los Angeles | Southern California | 74.94 | <0.001 |
| Orange | Southern California | 4.57 | 0.02 | ||
| Stanislaus | Central Valley | 2.99 | 0.04 | ||
| 1978–1982 | Hispanic | San Luis Obispo | Southern California | 5.83 | 0.008 |
| Santa Barbara | Southern California | 3.31 | 0.03 | ||
| Fresno | Central Valley | 2.99 | 0.04 | ||
| Kern | Southern California | 2.99 | 0.04 | ||
| 1983–1987 | Non-Hispanic | Sacramento | Central Valley | 2.99 | 0.04 |
| Santa Cruz | San Francisco Bay | 2.99 | 0.04 | ||
| 1988–1992 | Hispanic | Alameda | San Francisco Bay | 15.42 | <0.001 |
| Ventura | Southern California | 11.95 | <0.001 | ||
| Non-Hispanic | Los Angeles | Southern California | 4.57 | 0.02 | |
| San Bernardino | Southern California | 2.99 | 0.04 |
aSouthern California = Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties; Central Valley = Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kings, Madera, Merced, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Solano, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tulare, and Yolo Counties; San Francisco Bay = Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz Counties. bp-value based on one-sided chi-square test with 1 degree of freedom.
Moran’s I procedure for spatial clustering of the four, 5-year cumulative incidences of reported human brucellosis, California, 1973–1992
| Crude incidenceb | Race adjustedb | Age-race adjustedb | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yearsa | No. of cases | z-scorec | p value | z-scorec | p value | z-scorec | p value |
| 1973–1977 | 106 | 2.31 | 0.02 | 2.75 | 0.006 | 2.84 | 0.004 |
| 1978–1982 | 97 | 1.07 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.96 | -0.34 | 0.74 |
| 1983–1987 | 98 | 4.62 | <0.001 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 0.27 | 0.79 |
| 1988–1992 | 115 | -0.32 | 0.75 | -0.74 | 0.46 | -0.49 | 0.63 |
| 1973–1992 (mean) | 416 | 1.30 | 0.19 | -0.56 | 0.57 | -0.26 | 0.79 |
aCases summed over the specified 5-year period. Incidence over the 20-year period is the mean of incidences for the 5-year periods. bIncidences are based on the population of the 5-year period’s median year as the denominator. Incidences were adjusted by the direct method with the population distribution of Sacramento County in 1990 as the standard. Data for race were adjusted by using Hispanic and non-Hispanic population totals. cPositive z-score indicates tendency towards clustering, negative value dispersion.
Figure 4Distribution of human brucellosis: age/race-adjusted incidence per 106 population in California for the following 5-year periods: (a) 1973–1977, (b) 1978–1982, (c) 1983–1987, and (d) 1988–1992.
Population-adjusted Moran’s I (Ipop) analysis for spatial clustering of reported human brucellosis cases, California, 1973–1992
| Years | No. of cases | z-score | p value | Within %a | Among %a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||
| 1973–1977 | 106 | 7.79 | <0.001 | 75.4 | 24.6 |
| 1978–1982 | 97 | 9.04 | <0.001 | 62.1 | 37.9 |
| 1983–1987 | 98 | 4.94 | <0.001 | 56.5 | 43.5 |
| 1988–1992 | 115 | 4.22 | <0.001 | 93.1 | 6.9 |
| 1973–1992 | 416 | 18.67 | <0.001 | 58.6 | 41.4 |
|
| |||||
| 1973–1977 | 60 | 6.84 | <0.001 | 77.6 | 22.4 |
| 1978–1982 | 73 | 11.66 | <0.001 | 61.2 | 38.8 |
| 1983–1987 | 75 | 1.19 | 0.23 | 78.5 | 21.5 |
| 1988–1992 | 97 | 3.87 | <0.001 | 107.9b | -7.9b |
| 1973–1992 | 305 | 15.18 | <0.001 | 70.8 | 29.2 |
|
| |||||
| 1973–1977 | 46 | 1.52 | 0.13 | 80.7 | 19.3 |
| 1978–1982 | 24 | 0.15 | 0.88 | 95.0 | 5.0 |
| 1983–1987 | 23 | 1.47 | 0.14 | 91.0 | 9.0 |
| 1988–1992 | 18 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 82.9 | 17.1 |
| 1973–1992 | 111 | 1.41 | 0.16 | 92.3 | 7.7 |
aPercentage of estimated spatial clustering attributed to cases in the same counties and in adjacent counties. bAll identified clustering attributed to cases in the same counties. Negative value in % demonstrates dispersion of cases in adjacent counties.
Population-adjusted Moran’s I (Ipop) analysis for spatial clustering of reported human brucellosis cases due to Brucella abortus and B. melitensis in Hispanic populations, California, 1973–1992.
| Years | No. of cases | z-score | p value | Within %a | Among % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||
| 1973–1977 | 12 | -0.01 | 0.99 | 96.7 | 3.3 |
| 1978–1982 | 12 | 4.28 | <0.001 | 74.8 | 25.2 |
| 1983–1987 | 9 | -0.47 | 0.64 | 125.4c | -25.4c |
| 1988–1992 | 23 | 0.15 | 0.88 | 108.8c | -8.8c |
|
| |||||
| 1973–1977 | 17 | 6.47 | <0.001 | 62.4 | 37.6 |
| 1978–1982 | 48 | 8.77 | <0.001 | 70.8 | 29.2 |
| 1983–1987 | 56 | 1.18 | 0.24 | 83.2 | 16.8 |
| 1988–1992 | 50 | 3.15 | 0.002 | 104.6c | -4.6c |
aPercentage of estimated spatial clustering attributed to cases in same counties and in adjacent counties. bCases are reported as B. abortus or B. melitensis based on bacterial isolation or reported animal contact as cattle or goats, respectively, when bacterial isolation was not performed or species not determined. cAll identified clustering due to cases in the same counties. Negative value for in % demonstrates dispersion of cases in adjacent counties.