Does medical school performance predict radiology resident performance?

RATIONALE AND
OBJECTIVES: The authors performed this study to examine the relationship, if any, of a large number of measures of medical school performance with radiology residency performance.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Applications of 77 radiology residents enrolled from 1991 to 2000 were reviewed. Medical school grades, dean's letter summary statements, letters of recommendation, selection to Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA), and National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) and U.S. Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores were recorded. Student t tests, analysis of variance, and correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between these measures of medical school performance and subsequent performance during radiology residency as determined by rotation evaluations, retrospective faculty recall scores, and American College of Radiology (ACR) and American Board of Radiology (ABR) examination scores. Resident performance was also correlated with prestige of the medical school attended.
RESULTS: Preclinical grades of Honors or A; clinical grades of Honors or A in medicine, surgery, and pediatrics; and high NBME/USMLE scores strongly predicted success on the ABR written clinical examination but did not predict rotation performance. Most other measures of medical school performance, including outstanding Dean's letters and letters of recommendation, AOA selection during the senior year, and high medical school prestige did not predict high examination scores or superior rotation performance during residency.
CONCLUSION: Success on the ABR examination can be predicted by medical school success in preclinical courses, some clinical courses, and USMLE examination scores. Dean's letters, letters of recommendation, AOA selection during the senior year, and medical school prestige do not appear to predict future resident performance as reliably.