The natural history of asymptomatic moderate internal carotid artery stenosis by duplex ultrasound.

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of progression of the degree of carotid stenosis and to determine the risk of continued observation in a group of asymptomatic patients with moderate stenosis of at least one internal carotid artery. Between 1989 and 1994, 2130 patients were found to have 60-79% stenosis of at least one internal carotid artery following a duplex ultrasound examination in the authors' vascular laboratory. Of these, 465 patients (255 men, 210 women) were asymptomatic and had more than one ultrasound examination, and they form the basis of this retrospective review. The mean +/- SD age was 68.8 +/- 9.0 years. The mean +/- SD number of ultrasound examinations was 3.1 +/- 1.4 (range 2-11). The mean +/- SD follow-up was 24.4 +/- 17.6 months (range 2-79 months). Over the period of follow-up 72 patients (15.5%) progressed to 80-99% stenosis (n = 71) or to occlusion (n = 1). The estimated percentage of patients who progressed by life table methods were 5 +/- 1% at 1 year, 11 +/- 2% at 2 years and 20 +/- 3% at 3 years. There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of progression in men compared with women. Twenty-one patients had a late ipsilateral TIA or stroke. Five out of 72 patients (6.9%) who progressed had a late ipsilateral TIA compared with nine out of 393 patients (2.3%) who did not progress (estimated risk ratio 16.1, P = 0.0001). Four out of 72 patients (5.6%) who progressed had a late ipsilateral stroke compared with three out of 393 patients (0.76%) who did not progress (estimated risk ratio 23.6, p = 0.0002). The cumulative ipsilateral stroke rate using life table methods was 0.22% at 1 year, 1% at 2 years and 2.4% at 3 years. In a large cohort of asymptomatic patients, the frequency of progression of 60-79% internal carotid artery stenosis was 5% at 1 year, 11% at 2 years and 20% at 3 years. Patients who progressed were more likely to have symptoms, but the rate of unheralded stroke was relatively low over a 3-year time period. Surveillance carotid ultrasound examinations should be performed in patients with moderate carotid stenosis. Because of the lack of clear benefit, carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic 60-79% internal carotid artery stenosis cannot be justified.