What predicts gastroenterologists' and surgeons' diagnosis and management of common bile duct stones?

BACKGROUND: Because the literature suggests numerous indicators of common bile duct stones, we undertook a systematic assessment of physicians' judgments of the clinical utility of eight indicators: patient age, history of jaundice, history of pancreatitis, levels of serum alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, amylase, and total bilirubin, and common bile duct diameter on ultrasonography.
METHODS: Random samples of 1500 gastroenterologists and 1500 surgeons were sent a survey asking them to indicate the importance of each potential indicator of common bile duct stones, the likelihood of common bile duct stones for each of nine clinical vignettes, and whether they would order a preoperative ERCP. An abbreviated survey was sent to nonrespondents.
RESULTS: Although there was substantial variation in the importances assigned to each indicator, the most important indicators were serum total bilirubin and diameter of common bile duct on ultrasound. The best predictors of the decision to order an ERCP were perceived likelihood of stones and specialty. The average threshold for ordering an ERCP was 37%. Respondents did not differ from nonrespondents in the perceived importance of the eight indicators.
CONCLUSIONS: The substantial variation among gastroenterologists and surgeons regarding the optimal approach to common bile duct stones has clinical implications. Patients will receive varying recommendations for care, depending on whom they see.