Serum neuron-specific enolase (S-NSE) and the prognosis in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC): a combined multivariable analysis on data from nine centres.

The influence of pretreatment serum neuron-specific enolase (S-NSE) in addition to more conventional prognostic factors on survival duration in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) was investigated in 770 patients from nine centres in six countries. The other variables included stage of disease, performance status (PS), age, sex, serum lactate dehydrogenase (S-LDH), serum alkaline phosphatase (S-AP), and serum carcinoembryonic antigen (S-CEA). Increased values of S-NSE (> 12.5 micrograms-1 l) were observed in 81% of the patients, whereas S-LDH, S-AP and S-CEA were elevated in only half of the patients or less. Multivariable analysis by Cox's proportional hazard model disclosed S-NSE as the most powerful prognostic factor followed by poor PS and extensive stage disease. If PS was ignored, S-LDH came up as a significant prognostic factor. S-AP, S-CEA, age and sex had no significant influence on the prognosis. The three prognostic factors, S-NSE, PS and stage of disease, enabled establishment of a prognostic index (PI) based on a simple algorithm PI = zNSE + z(stage) + 2zPS. This segregated the patients into four groups with clearly different prognosis. The median survival and 95% confidence intervals of the four groups were: 468 days (540-408), 362 days (405-328), 256 days (270-241) and 125 days (179-58). Based on the present results we recommend S-NSE and PS, in addition to stage, for prognostic stratification in treatment trials on SCLC.