Risk analysis in resection of squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

A study of risk factors that affect morbidity and mortality in 523 patients with squamous cell cancer of the esophagus who had one-stage resection was undertaken. The 30-day and hospital mortality rates were 5.0% and 15.5%, respectively. Pulmonary complications, malignant cachexia, and surgical complications accounted for 42%, 25%, and 21% of hospital deaths, respectively. Major pulmonary complications occurred in 23% of patients. Multivariate analysis identified six factors that predicted major pulmonary complications: age, mid-arm circumference, percent of predicted FEV1, abnormal chest radiograph, amount of blood loss, and palliative resection. Three risk groups of pulmonary complications were identified: low, median, and high risk group with complications in 3%, 17%, and 43% of patients, respectively. Significantly, patients with curative resection had a lower hospital mortality rate (9%) than those with palliative resection (20%), p = 0.001. Patients with stage I, IIa, or IIb disease had a lower hospital mortality rate (9%) than those with stage III or IV disease (18%), p = 0.026. Multivariate analysis identified six factors that predicted hospital death: age, mid-arm circumference, history of smoking, incentive spirometry, number of stairs climbed, and amount of blood loss. Three risk groups of hospital death were identified: low, median, and high risk groups with death in 7%, 30%, and 38%, respectively. Anastomotic leakage rate was 4%. Technical faults were identified in 53% of patients with leakage. Together with other surgical complications, a presumed or apparent technical error was noted in 63% of patients. The identification of high-risk patients and prevention of technical faults can help improve surgical outcome.