Zirui Guo1, Wenzhan Jing1, Jue Liu1, Min Liu1. 1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has potential result in severe birth effects. An improved understanding of global trend and regional differences is needed. METHODS: Annual ZIKV infection episodes and incidence rates were collected from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Episodes changes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated. Top passenger airport-pairs were obtained from the International Air Transport Association to understand places susceptible to imported ZIKV cases. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR increased by an average of 72.85% (95%CI: 16.47% to 156.53%) per year from 2011 to 2015 and subsequently decreased from 20.25 per 100,000 in 2015 to 3.44 per 100,000 in 2019. Most of ZIKV infections clustered in Latin America. The proportion of episodes in Central and Tropical Latin America decreased in 2019 with sporadic episodes elsewhere. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions had more episodes in 2019 than in 2015. Additionally, 15-49 years group had the largest proportion of episodes, females had a higher number of episodes, and a higher incidence rate of 70 plus group was observed in males than females. Certain cities in Europe, North America and Latin America/Caribbean had a high population mobility in ZIKV outbreak areas considered a high risk of imported cases. CONCLUSIONS: ZIKV infection is still a public health threat in Latin America and Caribbean and high SDI regions suffered an increasing trend of ZIKV infection. Interventions such as development of surveillance networks and vector-control should be attached to ZIKV control in these key regions. Reproductive suggestions should be taken to reduce ZIKV-related birth defects for the people of reproductive age who are facing a higher threat of ZIKV infection, especially females. Moreover, surveillance of travellers is needed to reverse the uptrends of travel-related imported ZIKV infection. More studies focusing on ZIKV should be performed to make targeted and effective prevention strategies in the future.
BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has potential result in severe birth effects. An improved understanding of global trend and regional differences is needed. METHODS: Annual ZIKV infection episodes and incidence rates were collected from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Episodes changes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated. Top passenger airport-pairs were obtained from the International Air Transport Association to understand places susceptible to imported ZIKV cases. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR increased by an average of 72.85% (95%CI: 16.47% to 156.53%) per year from 2011 to 2015 and subsequently decreased from 20.25 per 100,000 in 2015 to 3.44 per 100,000 in 2019. Most of ZIKV infections clustered in Latin America. The proportion of episodes in Central and Tropical Latin America decreased in 2019 with sporadic episodes elsewhere. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions had more episodes in 2019 than in 2015. Additionally, 15-49 years group had the largest proportion of episodes, females had a higher number of episodes, and a higher incidence rate of 70 plus group was observed in males than females. Certain cities in Europe, North America and Latin America/Caribbean had a high population mobility in ZIKV outbreak areas considered a high risk of imported cases. CONCLUSIONS: ZIKV infection is still a public health threat in Latin America and Caribbean and high SDI regions suffered an increasing trend of ZIKV infection. Interventions such as development of surveillance networks and vector-control should be attached to ZIKV control in these key regions. Reproductive suggestions should be taken to reduce ZIKV-related birth defects for the people of reproductive age who are facing a higher threat of ZIKV infection, especially females. Moreover, surveillance of travellers is needed to reverse the uptrends of travel-related imported ZIKV infection. More studies focusing on ZIKV should be performed to make targeted and effective prevention strategies in the future.
Authors: Davidson H Hamer; Kira A Barbre; Lin H Chen; Martin P Grobusch; Patricia Schlagenhauf; Abraham Goorhuis; Perry J J van Genderen; Israel Molina; Hilmir Asgeirsson; Phyllis E Kozarsky; Eric Caumes; Stefan H Hagmann; Frank P Mockenhaupt; Gilles Eperon; Elizabeth D Barnett; Emmanuel Bottieau; Andrea K Boggild; Philippe Gautret; Noreen A Hynes; Susan Kuhn; R Ryan Lash; Karin Leder; Michael Libman; Denis J M Malvy; Cecilia Perret; Camilla Rothe; Eli Schwartz; Annelies Wilder-Smith; Martin S Cetron; Douglas H Esposito Journal: Ann Intern Med Date: 2016-11-22 Impact factor: 25.391