| Literature DB >> 35410987 |
Weihong Zeng1, Lishan Huang1, Haihong Lin1, Ru Pan1, Haochang Liu1, Jizhong Wen1, Ye Liang1, Haikun Yang1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is the fourth most commonly diagnosed malignant neoplasm among women worldwide. Despite improvements in treatment, the rate of postoperative metastasis remains a problem. Nomograms have been used to predict risk of tumor metastasis. We designed a nomogram to predict postoperative distant metastasis among cervical cancer patients, based on the SEER database, and estimated the performance of the nomogram by internal and external validations. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included 6421 participants and divided them into training (n=4495) and testing (n=1926) sets. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore predictors. The nomogram's predictive value was assessed by internal (testing set) and external (561 Chinese patients) validations. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) value was calculated to evaluate the nomogram's discrimination. The nomogram's calibration was assessed via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve. RESULTS Histologic type, T stage, treatment, tumor size, and positive lymph node were identified as independent predictors of postoperative distant metastasis in surgical patients (P<0.05). The developed nomogram had an AUC of 0.866 (95% CI: 0.844 to 0.888). The AUC and the chi-square for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test of the nomogram were 0.847 (95% CI: 0.807 to 0.888) and 11.292, respectively, (P>0.05) in the internal validation, and were 0.626 (95% CI: 0.548 to 0.704) and 316.53, respectively, (P<0.05) in the external validation. CONCLUSIONS Our nomogram showed a good predictive performance for postoperative distant metastasis in cervical cancer patients based on the SEER database. It remains to be determined if it is applicable to other populations.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35410987 PMCID: PMC9014871 DOI: 10.12659/MSM.933379
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Med Sci Monit ISSN: 1234-1010
Figure 1Flow chart for screening included patients with cervical cancer. Draw.io (version 12.6.5.330, JGraph Ltd.) was used for figure creation.
Baseline characteristics of study populations [n (%)/M (Q1, Q3)].
| Variables | Training set (n=4495) | Internal validation set (n=1926) |
|---|---|---|
| Age at diagnosis (years), Mean±SD | 47.15±12.42 | 46.63±12.29 |
| Histologic type, n (%) | ||
| Squamous cell carcinoma | 2543 (56.57) | 1050 (54.52) |
| Adenocarcinoma | 783 (17.42) | 368 (19.11) |
| Adenosquamous carcinoma | 226 (5.03) | 93 (4.83) |
| Others | 943 (20.98) | 415 (21.55) |
| Grade, n (%) | ||
| I | 2033 (45.23) | 827 (42.94) |
| II | 1486 (33.06) | 646 (33.54) |
| III | 115 (2.56) | 48 (2.49) |
| IV | 861 (19.15) | 405 (21.03) |
| Treatment, n (%) | ||
| Surgery | 2454 (54.59) | 1012 (52.54) |
| Surgery + chemotherapy | 164 (3.65) | 66 (3.43) |
| Surgery + radiotherapy | 482 (10.72) | 211 (10.96) |
| Surgery + radiotherapy + chemotherapy | 1395 (31.03) | 637 (33.07) |
| CS met at DX, n (%) | ||
| No | 4305 (95.77) | 1853 (96.21) |
| Yes | 190 (4.23) | 73 (3.79) |
SD – standard deviation; CS met at DX – cancers metastasis at distant site.
Results of univariate analysis in the training set.
| Variables | Training set | Statistics |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-metastasis (n=4305) | Metastasis (n=190) | |||
| Age at diagnosis (years), Mean±SD | 46.96±12.39 | 51.28±12.38 | t=−4.700 | <0.001 |
| Histologic type, n (%) | χ2=30.512 | <0.001 | ||
| Squamous cell carcinoma | 2460 (57.14) | 83 (43.68) | ||
| Adenocarcinoma | 758 (17.61) | 25 (13.16) | ||
| Adenosquamous carcinoma | 209 (4.85) | 17 (8.95) | ||
| Other | 878 (20.39) | 65 (34.21) | ||
| Grade, n (%) | Z=7.568 | <0.001 | ||
| I | 1968 (45.71) | 65 (34.21) | ||
| II | 1383 (32.13) | 103 (54.21) | ||
| III | 104 (2.42) | 11 (5.79) | ||
| IV | 850 (19.74) | 11 (5.79) | ||
| T stage, n (%) | Z=17.479 | <0.001 | ||
| T1 | 3552 (82.51) | 65 (34.21) | ||
| T2 | 616 (14.31) | 67 (35.26) | ||
| T3 | 115 (2.67) | 46 (24.21) | ||
| T4 | 22 (0.51) | 12 (6.32) | ||
| N stage, n (%) | χ2=321.426 | <0.001 | ||
| N0 | 3645 (84.67) | 65 (34.21) | ||
| N1 | 660 (15.33) | 125 (65.79) | ||
| Treatment, n (%) | χ2=328.799 | <0.001 | ||
| Surgery | 2430 (56.45) | 24 (12.63) | ||
| Surgery+chemotherapy | 118 (2.74) | 46 (24.21) | ||
| Surgery+radiotherapy | 465 (10.80) | 17 (8.95) | ||
| Surgery+radiotherapy+chemotherapy | 1292 (30.01) | 103 (54.21) | ||
| Tumor size (cm), n (%) | χ2=175.142 | <0.001 | ||
| <4 | 3245 (75.38) | 61 (32.11) | ||
| ≥4 | 1060 (24.62) | 129 (67.89) | ||
| First malignant primary, n (%) | χ2=5.301 | 0.021 | ||
| No | 204 (4.74) | 16 (8.42) | ||
| Yes | 4101 (95.26) | 174 (91.58) | ||
| Number of lymph node, M (Q1, Q3) | 13.00 (0.00, 22.00) | 5.00 (0.00, 16.00) | Z=−4.874 | <0.001 |
| Regional nodes positive, n (%) | χ2=131.388 | <0.001 | ||
| No | 2615 (60.74) | 36 (18.95) | ||
| Yes | 1690 (39.26) | 154 (81.05) | ||
SD – standard deviation; M – median.
Figure 2Results of multivariate analysis. R software (version 4.0.2, R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used for figure creation.
Figure 3Nomogram prediction of postoperative metastasis. R software (version 4.0.2, R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used for figure creation.
Figure 4ROC curve of the predictive nomogram. R software (version 4.0.2, R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used for figure creation.
Figure 5The (A) ROC curves and (B) calibration curve of the internal validation set. R software (version 4.0.2, R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used for figure creation.
Results of the McNemar’s test in the internal validation set.
| Predicted outcomes | Actual outcomes | McNemar |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-metastasis | Metastasis | |||
| Non-metastasis | 1802 (97.14) | 53 (2.86) | χ2=0.039 | 0.845 |
| Metastasis | 51 (71.83) | 20 (28.17) | ||
Figure 6The (A) ROC curves and (B) calibration curve of the external validation set. R software (version 4.0.2, R Foundation for Statistical Computing) was used for figure creation.
Results of the McNemar’s test in the external validation set.
| Predicted outcomes | Actual outcomes | McNemar |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-metastasis | Metastasis | |||
| Non-metastasis | 351 (94.35) | 21 (5.65) | χ2=111.484 | <0.001 |
| Metastasis | 165 (87.30) | 24 (12.70) | ||
Results of subgroup analysis in the external validation set.
| Variables | External validation set (n=561) | AUC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Age | ||
| <60 | 463 | 0.655 (0.570–0.740) |
| ≥60 | 98 | 0.504 (0.314–0.695) |
| Histologic type | ||
| Squamous cell carcinoma | 467 | 0.636 (0.553–0.718) |
| Adenocarcinoma | 72 | 0.811 (0.618–1.000) |
| Adenosquamous carcinoma | 9 | NA |
| Others | 13 | 0.636 (0.369–0.904) |
| T stage | ||
| T1 | 361 | 0.598 (0.472–0.724) |
| T2 | 195 | 0.473 (0.352–0.594) |
| Treatment | ||
| Surgery | 245 | 0.670 (0.515–0.824) |
| Surgery+chemotherapy | 11 | 0.639 (0.272–1.000) |
| Surgery+radiotherapy | 183 | 0.537 (0.391–0.683) |
| Surgery+radiotherapy+chemotherapy | 122 | 0.585 (0.450–0.720) |
| Tumor size | ||
| <4 | 473 | 0.650 (0.562–0.737) |
| ≥4 | 88 | 0.548 (0.285–0.812) |
| Regional nodes positive | ||
| No | 22 | NA |
| Yes | 538 | 0.630 (0.550–0.710) |
AUC – area under the curve; CI – confidence interval; NA – not available.