| Literature DB >> 35392061 |
Tao Chen1, Xiangpeng Zhan1, Junfu Du2, Xiaoqiang Liu1, Wen Deng1, Shuaishuai Zhao1, Ming Jiang1, Yunqiang Xiong1, Xiaohai Zhang1, Luyao Chen1,3, Bin Fu1,3.
Abstract
Background: Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) is usually considered to have a poor prognosis, which has a high risk of early death (≤3 months). Our aim was to developed a predictive nomogram for early death of mRCC.Entities:
Keywords: SEER database; early death; nomograms; prognosis; renal cell carcinoma
Year: 2022 PMID: 35392061 PMCID: PMC8980350 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.871577
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Surg ISSN: 2296-875X
Figure 1Flowchart for selection of metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
Figure 2Estimation of the appropriate cut-off value for the age and tumor size by using X-tile analysis. (A,B) The optimal cut-off values of age were 61 and 78 years. (C,D) The optimal cut-off values of tumor size were 82 and 141 mm.
Early death or without early death events in patients with mRCC.
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|---|---|---|---|
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| All | 1,816 (30.2) | 4,189 (69.8) | |
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| ≤ 61 | 575 (31.7) | 2,052 (49.0) | |
| 62–77 | 791 (43.6) | 1,715 (40.9) | |
| ≥78 | 450 (24.8) | 422 (10.1) | |
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| Male | 1,207 (66.5) | 2,931 (70.0) | |
| Female | 609 (33.5) | 1,258 (30.0) | |
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| White | 1,499 (82.5) | 3,438 (82.1) | |
| Black | 204 (11.2) | 397 (9.5) | |
| Others | 113 (6.2) | 354 (8.5) | |
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| ccRCC | 495 (27.3) | 2,434 (58.1) | |
| pRCC | 66 (3.6) | 202 (4.8) | |
| sRCC | 129 (7.1) | 208 (5.0) | |
| chRCC | 4 (0.2) | 37 (0.9) | |
| cdRCC | 15 (0.8) | 28 (0.7) | |
| RCC | 1,107 (61.0) | 1,280 (30.6) | |
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| 0.424 | ||
| ≤ 82 | 843 (46.4) | 1,929 (46.0) | |
| 83–140 | 776 (42.7) | 1,846 (44.1) | |
| ≥141 | 197 (10.8) | 414 (9.9) | |
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| GI-II | 100 (5.5) | 582 (13.9) | |
| GIII-IV | 423 (23.3) | 1,777 (42.4) | |
| Unknown | 1,293 (71.2) | 1,830 (43.7) | |
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| 392 (21.6) | 797 (19.0) | ||
| 391 (21.5) | 840 (20.1) | ||
| 559 (30.8) | 1,979 (47.2) | ||
| 250 (13.8) | 355 (8.5) | ||
| TX | 224 (12.3) | 218 (5.2) | |
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| 1,033 (56.9) | 2,901 (69.3) | ||
| 432 (23.8) | 707 (16.9) | ||
| 351 (19.3) | 581 (13.9) | ||
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| No | 1,067 (58.8) | 2,609 (62.3) | |
| Yes | 749 (41.2) | 1,580 (37.7) | |
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| No | 605 (33.3) | 1,689 (40.3) | |
| Yes | 1,211 (66.7) | 2,500 (59.7) | |
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| No | 1,256 (69.2) | 3,589 (85.7) | |
| Yes | 560 (30.8) | 600 (14.3) | |
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| No | 1,527 (84.1) | 3,772 (90.0) | |
| Yes | 289 (15.9) | 417 (10.0) | |
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| No | 1,521 (83.8) | 1,862 (44.4) | |
| Yes | 295 (16.2) | 2,327 (55.6) | |
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| No | 1,383 (76.2) | 2,837 (67.7) | |
| Yes | 433 (23.8) | 1,352 (32.3) | |
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| No | 1,328 (73.1) | 1,590 (38.0) | |
| Yes | 488 (26.9) | 2,599 (62.0) | |
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| mRCC | 1,687 (92.9) | 2,833 (67.6) | |
| Other cause | 129 (7.1) | 1,356 (32.4) | |
ccRCC, clear cell renal cell carcinoma; pRCC, papillary renal cell carcinoma; chRCC, chromophobe renal cell carcinoma; sRCC, sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma; cdRCC, collecting duct renal cell carcinoma; RCC, renal cell carcinoma.
The bold values mean statistically significance (p < 0.01).
Characteristics with mRCC patients in primary and validation cohort.
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| All | 6,005 (100.0) | 4,203 (70.0) | 1,802 (30.0) |
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| ≤ 61 | 2,627 (43.7) | 1,821 (43.3) | 806 (44.7) |
| 62–77 | 2,506 (41.7) | 1,768 (42.1) | 738 (41.0) |
| ≥78 | 872 (14.5) | 614 (14.6) | 258 (14.3) |
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| Male | 4,138 (68.9) | 2,898 (69.0) | 1,240 (68.8) |
| Female | 1,867 (31.1) | 1,305 (31.0) | 562 (31.2) |
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| White | 4,937 (82.2) | 3,485 (82.9) | 1,452 (80.6) |
| Black | 601 (10.0) | 406 (9.7) | 195 (10.8) |
| Other | 467 (7.8) | 312 (7.4) | 155 (8.6) |
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| ccRCC | 2,929 (48.8) | 2,058 (49.0) | 871 (48.3) |
| pRCC | 268 (4.5) | 173 (4.1) | 95 (5.3) |
| sRCC | 337 (5.6) | 235 (5.6) | 102 (5.7) |
| chRCC | 41 (0.7) | 30 (0.7) | 11 (0.6) |
| CDC | 43 (0.7) | 34 (0.8) | 9 (0.5) |
| RCC | 2,387 (39.8) | 1,673 (39.8) | 714 (39.6) |
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| 0.123 | ||
| ≤ 82 | 2,772 (46.2) | 1,946 (46.3) | 826 (45.8) |
| 83–140 | 2,622 (43.7) | 1,835 (43.7) | 787 (43.7) |
| ≥141 | 611 (10.2) | 422 (10.0) | 189 (10.5) |
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| GI-II | 682 (11.4) | 477 (11.3) | 205 (11.4) |
| GIII-IV | 2,200 (36.6) | 1,534 (36.5) | 666 (37.0) |
| Unknown | 3,123 (52.0) | 2,192 (52.2) | 931 (51.7) |
| 1,189 (19.8) | 835 (19.9) | 354 (19.6) | |
| 1,231 (20.5) | 847 (20.2) | 384 (21.3) | |
| 2,538 (42.3) | 1,775 (42.2) | 763 (42.3) | |
| 605 (10.1) | 426 (10.1) | 179 (9.9) | |
| TX | 442 (7.4) | 320 (7.6) | 122 (6.8) |
| 3,934 (65.5) | 2,789 (66.4) | 1,145 (63.5) | |
| 1,139 (19.0) | 788 (18.7) | 351 (19.5) | |
| 932 (15.5) | 626 (14.9) | 306 (17.0) | |
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| No | 3,676 (61.2) | 2,592 (61.7) | 1,084 (60.2) |
| Yes | 2,329 (38.8) | 1,611 (38.3) | 718 (39.8) |
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| No | 2,294 (38.2) | 1,618 (38.5) | 676 (37.5) |
| Yes | 3,711 (61.8) | 2,585 (61.5) | 1,126 (62.5) |
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| No | 4,845 (80.7) | 3,397 (80.8) | 1,448 (80.4) |
| Yes | 1,160 (19.3) | 806 (19.2) | 354 (19.6) |
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| No | 5,299 (88.2) | 3,732 (88.8) | 1,567 (87.0) |
| Yes | 706 (11.8) | 471 (11.2) | 235 (13.0) |
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| No | 3,383 (56.3) | 2,356 (56.1) | 1,027 (57.0) |
| Yes | 2,622 (43.7) | 1,847 (43.9) | 775 (43.0) |
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| No | 4,220 (70.3) | 2,973 (70.7) | 1,247 (69.2) |
| Yes | 1,785 (29.7) | 1,230 (29.3) | 555 (30.8) |
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| No | 2,918 (48.6) | 2,084 (49.6) | 834 (46.3) |
| Yes | 3,087 (51.4) | 2,119 (50.4) | 968 (53.7) |
ccRCC, clear cell renal cell carcinoma; pRCC, papillary renal cell carcinoma; chRCC, chromophobe renal cell carcinoma; sRCC, sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma; cdRCC, collecting duct renal cell carcinoma; RCC, renal cell carcinoma.
Univariate and multivariate logistic regression for identifying the risk factors for early death of mRCC.
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| ≤ 61 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| 62–77 | 1.668 | 1.437–1.935 |
| 1.388 | 1.159–1.664 |
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| ≥78 | 3.474 | 2.864–4.213 |
| 1.672 | 1.306–2.140 |
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| Male | Ref | - | ||||
| Female | 1.192 | 1.036–1.372 | 0.014 | - | - | - |
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| White | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Black | 1.337 | 1.079–1.656 |
| 1.008 | 0.773–1.314 | 0.954 |
| Other | 0.660 | 0.501–0.869 |
| 0.686 | 0.490–0.960 | 0.028 |
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| ccRCC | Ref | |||||
| pRCC | 1.332 | 0.910–1.950 | 0.140 | 1.202 | 0.773–1.868 | 0.414 |
| sRCC | 3.150 | 2.366–4.194 |
| 2.806 | 1.994–3.950 |
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| chRCC | 0.350 | 0.083–1.475 | 0.153 | 0.357 | 0.075–1.693 | 0.195 |
| CDC | 3.031 | 1.504–6.112 |
| 2.910 | 1.279–6.623 |
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| RCC | 4.371 | 3.762–5.077 |
| 1.954 | 1.616–2.362 |
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| ≤ 82 | Ref | - | ||||
| 83–140 | 1.017 | 0.885–1.168 | 0.816 | - | - | - |
| ≥141 | 1.143 | 0.913–1.431 | 0.245 | - | - | - |
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| GI-II | Ref | Ref | ||||
| GIII-IV | 1.506 | 1.130–2.007 |
| 2.144 | 1.515–3.033 |
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| Unknown | 4.360 | 3.322–5.722 |
| 1.388 | 0.996–1.935 | 0.053 |
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| Ref | Ref | |||||
| 0.953 | 0.776–1.170 | 0.645 | 1.087 | 0.844–1.400 | 0.519 | |
| 0.612 | 0.510–0.735 |
| 1.280 | 1.001–1.636 | 0.049 | |
| 1.540 | 1.210–1.959 |
| 1.739 | 1.284–2.357 |
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| TX | 2.355 | 1.810–3.064 |
| 1.479 | 1.084–2.017 | 0.014 |
| Ref | Ref | |||||
| 1.717 | 1.454–2.028 |
| 1.365 | 1.110–1.680 |
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| 1.707 | 1.423–2.047 |
| 1.850 | 1.471–2.327 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 1.097 | 0.959–1.255 |
| 1.316 | 1.088–1.591 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 1.300 | 1.133–1.490 |
| 1.387 | 1.163–1.653 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 2.599 | 2.219–3.043 |
| 1.989 | 1.635–2.419 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 1.685 | 1.384–2.051 |
| 2.115 | 1.618–2.765 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 0.146 | 0.124–0.173 |
| 0.151 | 0.116–0.198 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 0.666 | 0.573–0.774 |
| 0.651 | 0.521–0.813 |
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| No | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Yes | 0.218 | 0.189–0.252 |
| 0.175 | 0.147–0.209 |
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ccRCC, clear cell renal cell carcinoma; pRCC, papillary renal cell carcinoma; chRCC, chromophobe renal cell carcinoma; sRCC, sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma; cdRCC, collecting duct renal cell carcinoma; RCC, renal cell carcinoma.
The bold values mean statistically significance (p < 0.01).
Figure 3The nomogram for predicting early death in metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
Figure 4ROC curves and calibration plots for the nomogram. The ROC curves for the nomogram in the training cohort (A) and the validation cohort (B). The calibration plots for the nomogram in the training cohort (C) and the validation cohort (D).
Figure 5The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve for the nomogram in the training cohort (A) and the Validation cohort (B).