Omar Dzaye1, Alexander C Razavi2, Erin D Michos3, Martin Bødtker Mortensen4, Zeina A Dardari3, Khurram Nasir5, Albert D Osei3, Allison W Peng3, Ron Blankstein6, John H Page7, Michael J Blaha8. 1. Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. 2. Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA. 3. Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. 4. Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark. 5. Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, Houston, TX, USA. 6. Cardiovascular Imaging Program, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. 7. Center for Observational Research, Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA. 8. Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address: mblaha1@jhmi.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) burden displays a stepwise association with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Among primary prevention patients, we sought to determine the CAC scores equivalent to ASCVD mortality rates observed in the FOURIER trial, a modern secondary prevention cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: For the main analysis, we included participants from the CAC Consortium ≥50 years old with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (n = 20,207). Poisson regression was used to define the relationship between CAC and annual ASCVD mortality. Equations generated from the regression models were then used to derive CAC scores associated with equivalent annual ASCVD mortality as observed in FOURIER placebo participants from the overall trial and in key trial subgroups. The CAC Consortium participants had a similar age (65.5 versus 62.5 years) and sex (22% versus 24% female) distribution as FOURIER. The annualized ASCVD mortality rate in FOURIER participants (0.766 per 100 person-years) corresponded to a CAC score of 781 (418-1467). A CAC score of 255 (162-394) corresponded to an ASCVD mortality rate equivalent to the lowest risk FOURIER subgroup (presence of myocardial infarction >2 years prior to trial enrollment). No CAC score produced a risk equivalent to high-risk FOURIER subgroups, particularly those with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease and/or multivessel coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Primary prevention individuals with increased CAC burden may have annualized ASCVD mortality rates equivalent to persons with stable secondary prevention-level risk. These findings argue for a risk continuum between higher risk primary prevention and stable secondary prevention patients, as their ASCVD risks may overlap.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) burden displays a stepwise association with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Among primary prevention patients, we sought to determine the CAC scores equivalent to ASCVD mortality rates observed in the FOURIER trial, a modern secondary prevention cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: For the main analysis, we included participants from the CAC Consortium ≥50 years old with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (n = 20,207). Poisson regression was used to define the relationship between CAC and annual ASCVD mortality. Equations generated from the regression models were then used to derive CAC scores associated with equivalent annual ASCVD mortality as observed in FOURIER placebo participants from the overall trial and in key trial subgroups. The CAC Consortium participants had a similar age (65.5 versus 62.5 years) and sex (22% versus 24% female) distribution as FOURIER. The annualized ASCVD mortality rate in FOURIER participants (0.766 per 100 person-years) corresponded to a CAC score of 781 (418-1467). A CAC score of 255 (162-394) corresponded to an ASCVD mortality rate equivalent to the lowest risk FOURIER subgroup (presence of myocardial infarction >2 years prior to trial enrollment). No CAC score produced a risk equivalent to high-risk FOURIER subgroups, particularly those with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease and/or multivessel coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Primary prevention individuals with increased CAC burden may have annualized ASCVD mortality rates equivalent to persons with stable secondary prevention-level risk. These findings argue for a risk continuum between higher risk primary prevention and stable secondary prevention patients, as their ASCVD risks may overlap.
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